Welcome back to another exciting night of baseball. Tonight, we have another full slate of evening baseball, and that means it is time to give out our best picks of the night.
Not to brag, but my baseball picks have been scorching hot lately. Shoutout to my Cleveland Guardians for their massive rally to secure the Guardians Moneyline last night, and a perfect night for me personally.
Anyway, enough about last night. We have a fresh slate of games to pick from, and I have to say, the board is looking very promising for today. There are some familiar teams on the card tonight, but my confidence level is through the roof right now. I feel like I can pull up from 40 feet and hit nothing but net at this point.
I wish everyone good luck with their bets today. We would love for you to tail our picks, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
Here are tonight's winners.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 83% Braves
Runline: 67% Red Sox
Things are not going well for the Boston Red Sox this season.
Heading into tonight, Boston holds a record of 10-19, they are in the middle of a five-game losing streak, and they have lost eight of their last 10 games overall. It also does not help that you have alienated Xander Bogaerts from the team, and the guy you signed as his potential replacement, Trevor Story, has been terrible to start his Red Sox career.
Story is slashing .194/.276/.269 with an OPS of only .545. He is not the main reason Boston is struggling, as their entire offense has been just terrible. As a team, Boston is ranked 26th in wRC+ (80), 27th in hard-hit rate (26.1%), 28th in runs scored (95), and 29th in OBP (.279).
The pitching staff has been fairly solid for Boston, and tonight's starter, Garrett Whitlock, has been really good for the Red Sox this season.
Whitlock holds an ERA of 1.25, and he has struck out 29 batters in just 21.2 IP this season. That will help against a Braves lineup that has also been subpar this season. Atlanta is ranked 21st in BA (.226), 20th in OBP (.301), and 17th in wRC+ (99). Those numbers are certainly much better than Boston's, but it is still surprising for one of the more complete lineups in baseball.
With Ronald Acuna Jr. heating up, we are starting to see how dangerous Atlanta can get. However, the pitching matchup is the storyline of this game, as Atlanta will send out Kyle Wright, who has been nothing short of phenomenal this season. Wright holds an ERA of 1.74 with 37 SOs and a WHIP of 0.968 in 31.0 IP.
With two flailing offenses, and two of the best pitchers in baseball taking the hill tonight, I think we are looking at an easy under. The total has gone under in 14 of Boston's last 19 games, and four of their last five on the road.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-102)
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 85% White Sox
Runline: 58% Guardians
Let me push my Cleveland Guardians propaganda before we get into the pick.
Heading into the ninth down 8-2 last night, one would assume the White Sox would simply not allow the Guardians to score six runs to send this game into extra innings. However, Josh Naylor came to the plate, with the bases loaded, down four, and with two outs in the inning.
https://twitter.com/BallySportsCLE/status/1523867214926995456?s=20&t=3HLi5RgK52ZjcPgQTFMm3g
Then after the teams traded runs in the 10th inning, Naylor once again came to the plate, and the White Sox once again made the mistake of throwing him a pitch.
https://twitter.com/timandfriends/status/1523891055850045446
Anyway, enough about last night, let's talk about tonight's game.
The pitching is still a problem for the Guardians as Zach Plesac had a rough start last night, but man, oh man is that offense special. Cleveland is third in wRC+ (118), second in K% (19.8%), and fifth in wOBA (.325). They are also in the top 10 in most offensive categories, besides the power department. While they are slowly starting to hit the ball hard, they are still ranked last in hard-hit rate (24.9%).
If you have been following my picks, you should notice that I have bet on a lot of Guardians' games this season. That is for two reasons. First of all, they are my favorite team, and I am going to watch the games anyway, so might as well throw some action on it. Secondly, I always win when I bet on a Guardians game, no matter which side I am on.
Tonight, the White Sox are sending out Lucas Giolito, who has been great against Cleveland in his career. While he has a 3.20 ERA through 19.2 IP this season, his K/9 sits at 14.64, but his BB/9 of 3.66 would concern me against this Cleveland lineup. The Guardians do not walk a lot, but they have the second-best team K% (19.8%).
It is practically the same story on the other side as Cal Quantrill has not been sharp this season, but he should be able to handle a struggling White Sox lineup. The Guardians are 17-12 ATS and 10-7 ATS on the road this season. This game is going to go one of two ways. Either the White Sox completely roll over and die, or this is going to be a close, 2-1 type of game. Either way, I like the Guardians on the runline tonight.
Pick: Guardians +1.5 (-128)
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 87% Padres
Runline: 59% Padres
The Cubs are not completely dead yet, but they are getting close.
After thoroughly being dominated by the Dodgers over the weekend, the Cubs have now lost seven of their last 10, and they only put up 18 total runs in their last 10 games. On the season, the Cubs' offense ranks 21st in wRC+ (96) and runs scored (109).
Now, they are not a horrendous team at the plate, but they are not scoring, and they do not hit for power. Their offense runs on decent ABs and vibes, which is not going to win you many ball games.
Tonight, they have a true test with Mike Clevinger getting his second start of the season for the Padres. He made his first start back where his MLB journey began in Cleveland, and he put up a respectful 4.2 IP with three earned runs in his first start since 2020. There is not a lot of data on Clevinger, obviously, so we are going to take a different angle here.
San Diego's bullpen is ranked 24th in ERA. One could assume the bullpen will be busy tonight because of Clevinger. I doubt he will go very long as he is still trying to work his way back to his once-dominant self. If this game gets to the bullpen early, the Cubs are going to have the advantage.
There are too many questions with both starters tonight, and the Padres come in as a very solid offense. Getting the over at plus-value seems like a no-brainer to me, especially considering that the total has gone over in nine of San Diego's 17 road games this season.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+100)
Photo: Getty Images
