Happy Friday, yall.

Quick shoutout to the Phillies for blowing a six-run lead in the ninth inning to secure my 3-0 day with my picks for last night. Not only that, but we had the Mets Moneyline at +142, so I had a really fun time watching some baseball last night.

However, I need a stronger effort from the Astros tonight. You will find out here in a few minutes, but I am once again taking action on Houston tonight. I cannot be blowing leads in the ninth inning to the Detroit Tigers. Thankfully, everything worked out in the end, but just know that I have my eye on you, Houston. No more funny business.

Anyway, we are back with our three-best bets for the evening slate in baseball tonight. I wish everyone good luck with their bets today, and for this weekend. We would love for you to tail our picks, we just ask that you do so responsibly.

Here are tonight's winners.

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians

Despite a nasty weather night in Cleveland, the Guardians and Blue Jays combined for 11 runs last night. I can confirm that the weather is not much better tonight, but the pitching matchups are.

The Guardians will send out Shane Bieber, who on the surface looks untouchable, but there is a little area of concern with his regression since his 2020 Cy Young season. Bieber's fastball velocity is down from last season, and his K/9 is down to 8.90, compared to 14.2 in 2020, and 12.48 in 2021. He is not drawing as many whiffs, and his hard-hit rate of 41% plays well for a Blue Jays team that has the third-best hard-hit rate in baseball, and the best hard-hit rate (35.1%) against righties this season.

On the other side, Toronto will send Kevin Gausman out on the mound, and he has been sensational so far in 2022. Gausman has yet to walk a batter or give up a home run in his 31.2 IP this season, and his numbers are up across the board. He is due for regression, obviously, and a very disciplined team like Cleveland might be the team to finally breakthrough.

This seems like the spot for both pitchers to have their first clunker of the season, so the over is the play here. The total has gone over in six of the last seven home games for Cleveland, and with both offenses playing well, and a low total because of the projected starters, we are rooting for runs tonight in Cleveland for the second-straight night.

Pick: Over 6.5 (-124)

Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros

As someone who bet on the Astros Moneyline last night, I almost started crying when the Tigers tied the game, down to their final strike. However, my system of just betting favorites on the Moneyline continues to pay off, as the Astros held on to beat a bad Tigers team.

Tonight, the Astros are once again heavy favorites, and although the -205 ML is appealing to add to a parlay, I like the value we are getting on the Runline. Houston has Luis Garcia getting the start tonight, and he has been very good entering this game. His strikeout numbers are down, but so are his walks, as his BB% sits at 5.9% in his 21.2 IP this season.

The Tigers are sending out Beau Brieske who has been fine, and he will go up against a struggling Astros lineup, but the biggest story in this game is the Tigers' horrendous lineup. The Tigers are towards the bottom in practically all offensive categories, and over their last eight games, Detroit is only scoring 2.1 runs per game. I do like the under in this game as well with Brieske's ability to limit hard-hit balls, but I have zero faith in Detroit winning this game with their offense.

Pick: Astros -1.5 (+105)

Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox

Battle of the Sox on a Friday night, what more could you want?

We also have a pretty decent pitching matchup in this one with Nathan Eovaldi going for Boston and Vince Valasquez for Chicago. You may be asking, who the hell is Vince Velasquez, because that is exactly what I was asking this morning when I was researching this game.

Turns out, he has been in the show since 2015, and although his numbers are average at best for his career, he has been pretty solid this season outside of one disastrous start against the Twins. His BB% is down to 8.9%, and he made the Angels look silly in his last start with six shutout innings.

Tonight, he will get a red Sox offense that is alarmingly bad for how talented they are. The Red Sox are ranked 29th in wRC+ (79), 27th in wOBA (.278), and 25th in hard-hit rate (26.9%). Chicago's offense has not been much better, as they are ranked towards the bottom in almost every offensive category. For two teams that mashed the ball last season, what is happening in 2022 is bizarre, to say the least.

Eovaldi enters this game with a 2.51 ERA, and a BB/9 of .94, which is WELL below his career averages. Obviously, we cannot judge his season based on 28.1 IP, but his numbers are up across the board. Although his hard-hit rate and barrel% are not ideal, the White Sox as a team struggle against power pitchers, and they are not hitting the ball hard at all, with only a 27.4% hard-hit rate.

With two horrific offenses and two pitchers that are mismatches for the opposing offenses in this game, we have the perfect recipe for a low-scoring affair. The total has gone under the number in 11 of Boston's last 16 games and nine of their last 13 when playing at Guaranteed Rate Field, and a cold night in Chicago plays well for us.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-110)

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