We have another full slate of evening games in baseball tonight, and that means it is once again time to give out our best bets of the night.
Overall, there are not a lot of good games on the schedule, but there is a lot of value on the board. All though I am in a personal slump with my baseball picks, I feel that I am seeing the board much more clearly now, and it is only a matter of time before we really start cashing some tickets.
Anyway, enough of the boring stuff, let's take a look at our best bets for the evening slate of baseball. We would love for you to tail our picks, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
Here are tonight's winners.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians
Projected Starters:
Blue Jays: Jose Berrios (RHP)
Guardians: Aaron Civale (RHP)
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 88% Blue Jays
Runline: 51% Guardians
After splitting their doubleheader with the Padres yesterday, the Guardians completed their first series of the season where they did not get swept or did not do the sweeping. Their reward is they get to play the Toronto Blue Jays, who have one of the more feared lineups in baseball.
On the season, Toronto is ranked fourth in SLG (.403), fifth in hard-hit rate (33.9%), and ninth in OPS (.704). Even with those numbers, the Blue Jay's offense has not gotten off to the best start. They have a wRC+ of 105, and they are ranked 20th in runs scored on the season (97).
The Guardians knew they were going to have to rely on their pitching staff to carry a somewhat weak offense. Aaron Civale came into the season as the second starter in this rotation, but he certainly has not pitched like one. Through his first four starts, Civale has a 10.67 ERA, and over his last two starts, he has given up 12 earned runs in 7.0 IP.
Civale's early-season struggles favor the Blue Jays in this game, but Jose Berrios has been almost just as bad. He has a hard-hit rate of 34.6%, which is among the worst in baseball. Berrios has put together two-straight solid starts, but he is still getting hit hard, and he is still getting hit around. Luckily, Cleveland is a one-man show with Jose Ramirez leading the team in practically every offensive category.
Even though Cleveland's offense has been better to start the season, it's hard to bet against this Blue Jays' lineup. So, I am not going to. Instead, we are going to focus on the total in this one.
The total has gone over in five of Cleveland's last six home games and based on the pitching matchups, we should see a lot of hard-hit balls, and a lot of baserunners in this game.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115)
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Projected Starters:
Mets: Taijuan Walker (RHP)
Phillies: Aaron Nola (RHP)
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 54% Phillies
Runline: 75% Mets
The Mets have been one of my favorite teams to watch so far this season, and that's for multiple reasons. First of all, Francisco Lindor has had a great start to the season after last year's disastrous campaign at the plate. Secondly, the Mets' pitching staff has been dominant after the addition of Max Scherzer. Even then, they are still waiting for the return of Jacob deGrom. When he is back, the Mets might be the best team in baseball.
Now, the problem comes with their bullpen. New York's pen has an ERA of 3.94 and a .289 BABIP. It is going to be very important for the Mets to jump all over Aaron Nola to start this game. In only 16.1 IP, Nola has an ERA of 3.86, and he has the worst hard-hit rate among all the Phillies' starters. Even then, his hard-hit rate of 23.1% is not that bad, and the Mets' lineup has the worst hard-hit rate in baseball.
Nola's last start came against the Mets, where he gave up three earned runs in 6.0 IP. This is not his first encounter with New York, however, as he got chased after only 3.1 IP earlier in the year. On the other side, Walker will also be making his third start against the Phillies this season, and his third start overall. He has only pitched 7.0 IP in his two starts, but he has yet to surrender an earned run, and he has a WHIP of 0.571.
This game is going to come down to which offense can score the most runs before both teams turn to the bullpen. In this case, I will trust the Mets' offense, and Walker to keep up his streak of not allowing anyone to reach base. While I do like Nola more in this matchup, the value on the Met's ML is too good to pass up, and New York has won four of their last five against Philadelphia, and six of their last eight road games overall.
Pick: Mets ML (+142)
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
Projected Starters:
Tigers: Tarik Skubal (LHP)
Astros: Jose Urquidy (LHP)
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 92% Astros
Runline: 70% Astros
Even with Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, and Yordan Alvarez in the lineup, the Astros have not gotten off to a great start at the plate this season. Houston is ranked 26th in BA (.219), 23rd in OBP (.294), and 15th in wRC+ (103). Even then, Houston is above .500, and rookie Jeremy Pena has been a wonderful addition to this lineup.
I always give teams at least half a season to figure something out, so I am not worried at all about the Astros lineup. There are way too many good hitters for them to continue being a below-average team at the plate. Tonight, they have their shot to break out against a terrible Tigers team.
Detroit's offense is ranked 30th in ISO (.089), 29th in runs (72), 27th in OPS (.617), and 25th in wRC+ (86). The Tigers were projected to be a solid team this season after taking massive strides in 2021, and the addition of Javier Baez and top draft pick, Spencer Torkelson, getting called up.
Somehow, they have gotten worse.
Agian, the Astros have struggled on offense to start the season, but they are lightyears ahead of the Tigers right now, and Detroit is sending out Tarik Skubal, who has taken massive strides this year, but he has been knocked around a couple of times as well. This game comes down to the good ole' eye test. The Tigers' offense has been so bad, and the Astros' offense has good hitters littered around this lineup.
If you are feeling adventurous, I would advise you to sprinkle the Astros on the Runline in this one. However, I am rocking with the Moneyline. Lower odds should never scare you away from your bets. Just keep chipping away, and the money will start to pile up.
Pick: Astros ML (-156)