We have a full slate of baseball today, and that means it is time to give out our best bets of the night.
There are nine games in the evening slate, and 11 total with the Rangers vs. Yankees and Royals vs. Orioles manning the early slate of action. That is what makes baseball season so special. Although I always contend that baseball is one of the hardest sports to gamble on, you have all day to pick out some winners.
If I could pick out winners for every game, I would, but I like to focus on quality rather than quantity. With that being said, we are back with our three-best bets for the evening slate in baseball tonight.
I wish everyone good luck with their bets today. We would love for you to tail our picks, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
Here are tonight's plays.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 86% White Sox
Spread: 56% Guardians
Do not look now, but the Guardians have quietly had one of the best offenses in baseball to start the season. On the season, Cleveland is ranked first in BA (.257), fourth in OBP (.323), fifth in runs (132), and they are top 10 in the majority of offensive stats.
Now, the Guardians are not hitting the ball hard, as they are ranked last in hard-hit rate (24.6%), but the offense is so disciplined, and role players like Andres Gimenez, Owen Miller, and Josh Naylor have all been swinging hot bats. The problem, for how surprising it may be, is with the pitching staff. Coming into the season, the Guardians were thought to be a pitching-heavy team, and they are, but things have not been going well for their top-three pitchers.
Shane Bieber got rocked in his last start against the Blue Jays, and Aaron Civale has been downright terrible so far. Tonight's starter, Zach Plesac, has also struggled to start the season with a 4.44 ERA and an xFIP of 4.57. However, Plesac's lone win on the season came against the White Sox as he went 6.2 innings allowing one earned run.
Chicago just came off a series sweep of the Red Sox in Boston, where as a team, they slashed .252/.316/.320 with an OPS of .637. The White Sox certainly looked better against Boston, but they still have no real intimidation behind their lineup. Although the White Sox have the advantage on the mound with Michael Kopech, he has failed to go over five innings this season, despite his 1.17 ERA.
Cleveland needs the pitching to be better, but Plesac has been pretty good against the White Sox in his career, and that showed earlier in the season. For this game, I am going to roll with the better offense. It just so happens that team also has plus-value on the Moneyline.
Pick: Guardians ML (+154)
Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 53% Tigers
Spread: 77% Athletics
Coming into the season, the Tigers were supposed to be one of the more interesting teams in baseball. After hiring A.J. Hinch, the culture seemed to have changed, and that includes during the offseason. The Tigers signed Javier Baez, and were players for the majority of the top free agents. Obviously, they did not land all of them, but the fact they are in the conversation shows how much players respect this team.
However, things have not gone well at all in Detroit. They hold the worst record in the American League at 8-19, and they have lost six-straight games. Detriot is ranked towards the bottom in all offense categories, and they are last in runs scored this season. Tonight, they go up against an Oakland team that is not good, but they are a lot better than what people thought, especially their starter for tonight, Paul Blackburn.
Blackburn has a 2.22 ERA and his K% has skyrocketed to 25%, which plays well against a Tigers' offense that has a team K% of 25.1%. Not only are the Tigers not scoring, but they are just not putting the ball in play with a high strikeout rate and a wRC+ of only 80. The Tigers are sending out Michael Pineda, who is having a bad year, but he gets an Oakland lineup that has the highest K% against righties this season, and a wRC+ of only 71, which is last in baseball.
The total has gone under in five of the last six for the Tigers, and with two poor offenses, I believe we will see a lot of strikeouts, and not a lot of action in the Motor City tonight.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 76% Mariners
Spread: 68% Mariners
Hand up, I do not watch a lot of Mariners baseball. As an East Coast (Beast Coast) resident, their games start way too late for me. Everything I see online is telling me the Mariners are one of the best teams in baseball, though.
Recently, however, Seattle has struggled. Over their last 10 games, Seattle has only won twice, and they are only scoring three runs per game during that stretch, including scoring over three runs only once in their last five.
While Chris Flexen has lost four of his five starts for Seattle, a deep look at his number suggests he has been much better than what the stats say. Over his last three starts, Flexen is 1-2 with a 1.93 ERA and only allowed four earned runs in 18.2 IP. Tonight, he gets a hit-or-miss Phillies offense, but man, are they a scary bunch.
On the season, the Phillies are ranked ninth in wRC+ (107), sixth in ISO (.158), and they have a 29.4% hard-hit rate, which is only ranked 14th, but last season, they were towards the bottom of the league in hard-hit rate.
I like what Seattle is doing as a team, but they have been struggling lately, and I trust Philadelphia's powerful lineup despite their struggles. At plus-value, I am going to roll with the Phillies on the Moneyline tonight.
