The Golden State Warriors exploded in the second half of Game 4 to tie this series at 2-2 heading back to their home court.

Once again, the Celtics went into the locker room with a lead and all the momentum. Then the Warriors did what they do best and dominate the third quarter of games, and they beat the Celtics by 10 points. Both teams have been very impressive, and I am having a wonderful time watching this series.

One could make the argument that all four games have been very winnable for the losing side, and that is what makes this series so hard to bet on. Although I have officially said that I believe the Celtics are the better team, the Warriors have more championship experience than any team in the league, and the Celtics entered the Finals with zero experience.

I promise I will not complain about the outrageous, pointless, and deplorable 9:00 p.m. tip-off time and get straight into the picks. We would love for you to tail our best bets for the NBA Finals, we just ask that you do so responsibly.

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Pickwatch Experts:

Moneyline: 76% Warriors

Spread: 65% Warriors

Kneel Before The Time Lord:

The Celtics had the perfect opportunity to further sink in their chokehold on the NBA Finals as they were up 2-1 heading into Game 4 on their home court. They came out and handled the Warriors in the first half, and then the god damn third-quarter Warriors came alive, and they completely took over the second half.

The good news is that Boston has not lost back-to-back games since March, and Boston is the best road team to bet on, going 34-18 ATS on the road, and they have covered 13 of their last 15 road games. On the flip side, however, Golden State is 31-19-2 ATS at home this season, and during the playoffs, they are 8-3 ATS.

As we enter the always important Game 5 when the series is tied 2-2, it still feels like the Celtics are the better team, but they are walking into one of the NBA's best homecourt advantages. Even with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown continuing to impress on both ends of the court, Boston has just fallen apart at the worst times, and they have had no answers for Stephen Curry.

Robert Williams seems to be getting healthier and healthier as the series goes on, and as I said last time, he may be the most important player for the Celtics. He is not a great scoring threat, and he does not shoot the ball from the outside, but he gives the Celtics an intimidating paint presence on both sides of the court, and his 12 blocks in this series have quietly been the most important stat for the Celtics.

He is listed as questionable for tonight, but if he has been able to go the last few games, he absolutely will be on the court tonight.

The Warriors Are Doing The Thing Again: 

In the Finals, the Warriors have an offensive rating of 143.2 and a defensive rating of 92.6 in the third quarter. Golden State is also 4-0 ATS in the third quarter, and in both games, they have won so far, the third quarter was the turning point. It has been this way for a while, but the Warriors absolutely dominate the third quarter of playoff games, and Game 4 was no different. The Warriors outscored the Celtics 58-43 in the second half of Game 4, and Curry erupted for 14 points in the third quarter.

Golden State is 13-7 ATS in the third quarter this postseason, and it is the only quarter in which they are beating the Celtics in this series. I do not know what Steve Kerr does in the locker room, but it works, and it has worked for many years.

While Klay Thompson has looked much better as of late, Draymond Green is not adding anything other than being the comedic relief when he inevitably complains about something. Luckily for the Warriors, Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney have been great role players for the Finals. If Thompson, Green, and Jordan Poole can get it going when Curry is out of the game, Golden State should have no problems for the rest of the series.

The Celtics are not going to stop Curry from doing his thing, so the only hope Boston has is if everyone around him sucks, which has been the case for about 98% of this series.

The Pick:

I have bet on Golden State for all four games of this series so far, and even though they are on their home court with a chance to go up 3-2, the Celtics just simply do not lose two games in a row. They have yet to lose back-to-back games in the playoffs and coming off a loss in the postseason, they are beating teams by an average of 14.4 points per game.

Boston is the only team to have a winning record against the Warriors under Kerr, and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against the Warriors, and they are 8-3 SU in their last 11 against them.

At the end of the day, Boston is deeper, and they have controlled the majority of the Finals. Curry is known to have some clunkers in the Finals, and that has yet to happen in this series. I will take Boston tonight just because they do not lose after a loss, and they are actually playing much better than the Warriors, they just cannot finish these games.

Pick: Celtics +4 (-110)

Photo: Getty Images