The NBA Finals are finally here as the Boston Celtics will take on the Golden State Warriors.
Golden State is back in the Finals for the first time since 2019 when they lost to the Raptors, and Boston is making their first trip to the Finals since 2010 when they lost to the Lakers. The Warriors are making their sixth appearance in the Finals in eight years, which is absurd, and I'd argue unfair.
As a Cleveland fan, I have a bad taste in my mouth whenever I watch the Warriors, and like everyone else who doesn't live in the northeast, I am jealous of Boston's sports success. However, this is a great matchup, and I would not be shocked if this series goes the distance. Boston matches up fairly well with the Warriors, and they have been the only team to have a winning record against them in the Steve Kerr era.
I am so excited to watch and bet on these games, so how about we break down Game 1 of the Finals, and give our best bets of the night? We would love for you to tail our picks, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 84% Warriors
Spread: 60% Warriors
You Ever Hear The One About A Boston Team In The Championship?
It is quite amazing to look back at how bad the Celtics were at the start of the season. Boston was 20-21 at the halfway point, and they actually broke the record for most wins in a season for a team that had a losing season through 41 games.
I absolutely love that stat.
Another stat I love about this Celtics team is how much damn money they have been winning for the public in the second half of the season, especially on the road. They went 14-7-1 ATS after the All-Star Game, and on the season the Celtics are 33-17 ATS on the road. Against Golden State, they have won six of the last seven matchups, and they are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five against the Warriors.
All of these stats favor Boston, especially since they have been a covering-machine, but the problem is they just went through a gauntlet in the East, and they are banged up. In order, the Celtics had to take on Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant in the first round, the defending Finals Champions in the second round, and the Miami Heat in the Conference Finals.
To their credit, they have looked like the best team in the East just based on the eye test, but they had to play 18 games to get to this point, including back-to-back seven-game series, and they have some key injuries to deal with.
Marcus Smart has been upgraded to probable for tonight, but Robert Williams is questionable, and that would be a big blow given that he would be an excellent counter to Draymond Green. Even if they can all play tonight, Boston is playing on shaky legs, and they are going into one of the hardest places to play in the entire NBA.
The Warriors Are Inevitable:
The Golden State Warriors are back in the NBA Finals, and for us haters, this has seemed like an inevitable conclusion since they threw the first tip-off of the season. Even after losing James Wiseman earlier in the season, Golden State just marched through the season.
Even with the Suns having the best record in the NBA, even with the Grizzlies looking like a really exciting team, and even with Luka Doncic and the Mavericks finally breaking through the to WCF, the Warriors were of course going to be the team to make it to the Finals in the West.
It hasn't just been the regular season as well, throughout the postseason, the Warriors have just been simply incredible. Golden State is putting up 114.5 points per game, and they have the second-best point differential (+5.3). Golden State is also averaging five more points per game per 100 possessions in the playoffs than what they had in the regular season, which is surprising considering they are not shooting the three as often.
The Warriors are taking 41.5% of their shots from deep in the playoffs, which is down from their averages under Kerr, but they are so efficient at all three levels, that it does not even matter if Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are not taking as many threes. The Warriors can kill you in so many ways, and they shine at home in the playoffs.
The Pick:
Even before the Celtics beat the Heat in Game 7 to advance to the Finals, I was fully prepared to take the Warriors, the over on their team total, and possibly a sprinkle on a Golden State -10 alternate spread for this game. They are more rested, they are 30-18-2 ATS at home this season, and the Celtics are coming off back-to-back game 7s.
Even with all of that, Boston is still 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 against the Warriors, and they are 33-17 ATS on the road this season. I am admittedly a former Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown non-believer, but I can officially say I was wrong. The impact those two have on both sides of the court is incredible, and Boston has about 15 players that are cut from that same cloth.
However, the Warriors are 21-2 in Game 1s under Kerr, and when they host Game 1 of the finals (all against my beloved Cavaliers I may add), Golden State is 4-0, and they are winning by 13.75 points.
The Warriors are the play for this game, and as I said, take a peek at the alternate lines. With how good Golden State is in Game 1s on their home court, you may be able to find some real value there.
Pick: Warriors -4 (-108) & Warriors ALT -9.5 (+196)
Photo: Getty Images