Baseball season is just getting started, but I think we are starting to get a feel of which teams actually have a chance at competing this season.
The reason baseball is one of my favorite sports is because we get an early slate of games almost every day. Yesterday, we were treated to five early games. Today, we only have two games, but man, I really like the board for these matchups.
Sure, one of the matchups features one of the most disgusting baseball teams I have ever watched (respectfully), but we do not care about the quality of the matchups. The only thing that matters to us is cashing tickets.
With all of that being said, let's take a look at the best bets for both early games today. We would love for you to tail our picks, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
Projected Starters:
Angels: Shohei Ohtani (RHP)
Red Sox: Rich Hill (LHP)
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 79% Angels
Runline: 64% Red Sox
Shohei Ohtani had a rough start to the season on the mound, but he has settled in nicely, and a deeper look at his numbers shows just how nasty he is. He has a 37.5% strikeout rate, and Ohtani is averaging 13.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He is not only striking people out, but Ohtani rarely gives up a free base, with a 6.3% walk rate.
On paper, the Red Sox should have one of the more feared lineups in baseball. However, they are just not producing at the plate right now. Boston is last in BB%, which could be the key to this matchup with a very disciplined pitcher on the mound. Boston also only has an 82 wRC+, and they have the fifth-worst OBP in baseball (.280).
While the offense is not producing as they hoped, they are still a team that I would trust just based on their potential at the plate. But, the Angels have mashed lefties this season, with a 127 wRC+, and the second-highest OBP in baseball (.355). While Hill throws very slow, and that helps with his hard-hit rate, the Angels are ranked third in team BA (.276), ninth in SLG (.407), and eighth in OPS (.736).
Simply put, the Angels are a good hitting team. They are not a great power-hitting team, but with Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Taylor Ward scattered around the lineup, you have a power threat up almost every inning.
As I said, I will always trust the Red Sox's offense, especially when it comes to the Angels bullpen, which has a 3.80 ERA this season. However, the Angels have the advantage at the start of this game with Hill on the mound. In his four starts, Hill has only gone 17 innings. If the Angels can get to him early, and based on their numbers against southpaws this season, they very well can, taking Los Angeles on the F5 line has some significant value.
Pick: Angels F5 -0.5 (-110)
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Projected Starters:
Reds: Hunter Greene (RHP)
Brewers: Adrian Houser (RHP)
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 95% Brewers
Runline: 77% Brewers
If you could not tell by their 3-21 record this season, the Cincinnati Reds are hilariously bad, and yes, that is the worst record in baseball. If you are a Reds fan, look away, because we are going to talk about some deplorable offensive numbers.
Cincinnati is last in runs scored (70), hits (146), total bases (231), OBP (.267), OPS (.584), and wRC+ (68). The Reds are also ranked 29th in BA (.200) and SLG (.316). It is hard to be as bad as this, and their pitching staff has not been much better. Hunter Greene has shown some nasty stuff, and it is clear that this kid is going to be special when he gets some experience under his belt. But for now, he holds a 6.00 ERA and a FIP of 6.07.
The Reds certainly have the worst offense in this game, but the Brewers are not impressive themselves at the plate. As a team, they are slashing .218/.292/.372 with an OPS of only .664. This screams to me that the under is the play in this game, but Cincinnati is so bad from top-to-bottom, that they may just give up eight runs to push this one over the total themselves.
Over the Reds' last seven games, in which they have lost all of them, they are giving up 7.7 runs per game, and even though the bats have woken up a little during their seven-game losing streak, which is a hilarious thing to say, they have a tough matchup with Adrian Houser getting the nod for the Brewers.
The over is actually 13-9-1 for the Reds this season, but the Brewers have a stacked bullpen. I'll trust Greene to flash some of that elite potential for the Reds, and at least keep this game respectable.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-102)