Hello, and welcome back to our MLB best bets.
Shoutout to the Mets for winning as underdogs last night, bringing my record to 13-4 when betting on them this season. I will spare you the anxiety of waiting and tell you right now that they will once again make an appearance on my card tonight. You will have to read a little further to find out which side I am taking tonight.
It is hard to believe that we are a week away from the All-Star game. This season has flown by so far, and outside of the Yankees and the Astros, no team has really separated themselves from the rest. This should be one hell of a second half of the season, but for now, let's focus on the slate of action we have tonight. We have two best bets for you tonight, and we would love for you to tail our best bets, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
Here are today's winners.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 82% Braves
Runline: 62% Mets
The Mets picked up the series-opening win last night, and a big part of that was thanks to Max Scherzer being Max Scherzer. The offense was not overly impressive, as they gathered only four runs on nine hits, including two big runs scored in the eighth and ninth inning.
New York will not have the advantage on the mound tonight as they will send David Peterson to take on a hot Braves lineup while Atlanta will have Spencer Strider getting the start tonight. Strider comes into this game with an ERA of 2.60 and a WHIP of 0.975. He did have an awful start against the Giants a few weeks ago when he gave up six earned runs in 3.2 IP. In his three starts since then, he has settled back down nicely with a 0.50 ERA in 18.0 IP, but somehow, he is 1-2 in those starts.
While Strider has been a lot better than Peterson this season, Atlanta has somewhat struggled against LHP this season at home. The Braves are ranked 16th in wRC+ and 12th in wOBA against lefties at their home park this season. Still, this offense is coming into this series hot, and they are one of the best home offenses in baseball.
However, the Mets have been really good on the road this season. New York is ranked eighth in runs (207), fifth in OPS (.730), and sixth in wRC+ (105). I usually do not like taking an underdog two days in a row, especially on the road, but there is a lot of value with the Mets on the ML again tonight. I got them at +180 earlier this morning, and I would advise you to hop on this number as fast as you can.
Pick: Mets ML (+172)
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Pickwatch Experts:
Moneyline: 70% Royals
Runline: 57% Tigers
This is a gross matchup of mediocre teams, but we are not watching this game for the entertainment value. There is some significant value on the board for this one.
Detroit will have Beau Brieske getting the start tonight, which is not good news for the Tigers. Brieske has been quite horrible this season. He comes into this game with a 4.16 ERA and a FIP of 5.14. His xERA of 5.70 means that he is due for a shelling, and a hard-hit rate of 40.7% could spell trouble against a Royals lineup that has been pretty solid as of late.
Over the last two weeks, Kansas City is ranked ninth in wOBA (.331) and 10th in wRC+ (114), while the Tigers are ranked towards the bottom in most offensive categories, despite the six-game winning streak they just had. The Royals will send out Kris Bubic tonight, and while he comes into this game with a 6.84 ERA in 48.2 IP this season, Detroit has been awful against lefties this season.
The Tigers are ranked 21st in wRC+, WOBA, and OPS against lefties this season, and over the last two weeks, they have a K% of 22.8% against southpaws on the road. I am not a huge fan of this Kansas City team, especially their pitching staff, but you cannot deny how hot their bats have been lately. The Royals are also 5-1 in their last six home games against the Tigers, and Detroit comes into this game with a road record of just 14-27.
Both teams stink, but Kansas City is a little less stinky than Detroit, and anytime you can get this kind of value against the Tigers on the ML, you have to take it.
Pick: Royals ML (-124)
Photo Credit: Embed from Getty Images
