Hello, and welcome back to our MLB best bets.

We have a short slate with only 10 games tonight, but that will not stop us from finding the best bets on the board. I am starting to get hot again, as I have hit 10 of my last 18, and I am feeling really good about some of the value that is being offered to us tonight. One of my favorite teams to bet on makes their long-awaited return to my card tonight, so hopefully, that is a sign that we are going to have a good night.

Anyway, we are not here to talk about me, we are here to give you the best plays for the evening slate of action. Tonight, we have two best bets for you. We would love for you to tail our best bets, we just ask that you do so responsibly.

Here are today's winners.

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves

Pickwatch Experts:

Moneyline: 72% Braves

Runline: 72% Mets

I am pumped up for this series. Not only are MY New York Mets in action tonight, but they are going up against the defending World Series champions, and the team that is only 1.5 games back of the Mets for the top spot in the NL East.

Max Scherzer returned from injury last week and looked as good as ever. In 6.0 IP against the Reds, Scherzer allowed only two hits, and he struck out 11 batters. Tonight is going to be a little bit more of a challenge as he is going up against one of the best lineups in baseball. For the season, Atlanta is ranked third in runs (416), OPS (.761), and wOBA (.330).

Their offense has gotten even hotter over the last two weeks as they have a wRC+ of 124, and they have put up 67 runs over the last 14 days. On the other side, the Mets' offense is still ranked towards the top in most offensive categories this season, but over the last two weeks, they are ranked 23rd in runs (44), 22nd in wOBA (.301), and 19th in wRC+ (98).

Tonight, New York will go up against Max Fried, who has been awesome over the last month. On the season, Fried has an ERA of 2.52 and a FIP of 2.50, but over the last 30 days, Fried has an ERA of 2.23 and a FIP of 1.65. On paper, Atlanta is the clear play here because of their surging lineup and having a lights-out pitcher on the mound, however, there is a lot of value with New York tonight.

The Mets are ranked fifth in runs (122), eighth in K% (20.2%), and they have a wRC+ of 107 against lefties this season. You are not going to find this type of value during a Scherzer start, so I am going to take advantage. He has been so elite this season, and although his offense is struggling, he is going up against a Braves lineup, that has been awesome lately, but they have the third-worst K% in baseball.

Pick: Mets ML (+110)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Pickwatch Experts:

Moneyline: 62% Phillies

Runline: 71% Cardinals

The Phillies had a terrible start to the season, but they have caught fire recently, especially Kyle Schwarber. Over the last month, Schwarber is slashing .245/.350/.613 with an OPS of .963 and a wRC+ of 161. He also has 12 home runs during that span and an ISO of .368. What's funny is he has not been the hottest Phillie in this lineup. Rhys Hoskins is slashing .299/.410/.598 with an OPS of 1.008 and a wRC+ of 177 over the last 30 days.

As a whole, the Phillies have a wRC+ of 104, and they are ranked seventh in ISO (.171), eighth in OPS (.734), sixth in runs (409), and they are fifth in runs per game (4.9). They will have to go up against Miles Mikolas, who gave up two earned runs in 5.1 IP in his lone start against Philadelphia this season. While Mikolas' numbers look solid on paper, his xERA of 3.51 and xFIP of 3.87 are concerning, and this is not the lineup you want to face when regression is practically inevitable.

On the other side, St. Louis still has one of the higher-potential offenses with Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman, and Tyler O'Neill, but over the last two weeks, the Cardinals' offense is ranked 27th in runs (38), 25th in wOBA (.290), and 21st in wRC+ (89). The Cardinals will go up against Aaron Nola, who has a 2.01 ERA and has only allowed 10 earned runs over his last 44.2 IP. Nola has also gone at least 7.0 IP in his last six starts, with a 4-2 record during that stretch.

One of my baseball betting philosophies is to always take a hot pitcher when you have some value, and there is a lot of value with Philadelphia in this one. The Cardinals' offense is sinking while the Phillies are thriving, especially in the power department. Philadelphia also has the advantage on the mound. I got them at -115 this morning, and the number is only climbing. Jump on this as fast as you can.

Pick: Phillies ML (-122)

Photo Credit: Embed from Getty Images