Welcome to Upset Watch
If you're new to Pickwatch, or have never read Upset Watch, here's what we do:
With over 35% of NFL games ending in an underdog outright win, it's important to know when upsets are most likely to occur, and which teams to pick.
Every Wednesday, we select a number of underdogs that have a statistically higher chance of winning than others. To do this, we use historical trends, such as the number of underdogs that historically win each week, and we then use a weighted ranking of each team's current 'true' performance to assess how well they are playing, and whether the matchup is favorable.
Why underdogs and not favorites?
Because underdog winners yield bigger profits from the greater odds you face, you don't need to win every pick you make. Our motto is that with Upset Watch, you make more profit from fewer picks.
In 2021, betting $100 on every underdog winner that we picked would have yielded you a profit of+$3,200 over the course of the season. This year, we have made a profit to this point of +$1,961
Contents (click to jump to section - Pro subscription required for picks):
About Weighted Stats
Our weighted stats in the header for each game are different to the 'raw' stats you can find on other websites.
Weighted stats indicate the performance of a team against the averages of their opponents. For example, if a team scores 30 points against a team that gives up 29 points on average, their weighted performance will be +1. If they score 30 points against a team that gives up 20 points on average, their performance is +10, because they scored 10 points more than that opponent normally allows.
Over the course of a season, we can see the balance of the weighted performance as a 'true' measure of a team's real caliber. A team that ranks highly in a category generally has a good performance in this statistic regardless of how strong their opponents are.
*Note: As we head into the final weeks of the season, we are using weighted stats from the last 5 games for each team, giving a more accurate indication of where teams are now, given injuries, QB changes, coaches being fired, or late season good/bad form..
About the stats
We include 4 main categories of weighted stats for offense and defense. These cover scoring, passing, rushing, and pass protection. On defense, we replace pass protection with pass rush.
By placing the units side-by-side with the unit they are up against (eg: Pass protection vs Pass rush) you can not only see where a team is strongest, but also whether the opposing unit is likely to be strong or weak too.
Week 16 generated yet another profit for us. First, we got the Thursday night game right, correctly picking the Jaguars to win. We nailed the big Texans pick long before anyone else figured out that Houston had a much better chance of winning, and similarly, we were on Green Bay at extremely long odds that got shorter as the week went on.
In the covers section, we didn't get one of our picks right for the first time since week 7, although the push (Philadelphia +6) could have been a win. In the end, getting your money back on that one isn't a bad deal, and some people may even have got on longer spreads.
Another winning week takes us closer to +$2,000 profit on the season. We're just $40 away from that number, and making a big push as the season comes to a close. The profit we have is made up of +$875 in money line wins (45% win rate), and +$1086 in underdog covers (74% win rate).
Remember that picking underdogs is a particularly difficult thing to do, and 45% is a massive number. As you can see by checking our underdog stats, no NFL media expert that has made the same number of underdog picks as Upset Watch has achieved this number, and none have achieved as much profit, as their selections have usually been the underdogs who are +100 or similar. Our average underdog pick is at +145!
I get asked this question a lot, about the best way to use the information in Upset Watch/
I've transferred this section of Upset Watch to a separate article, as I attempt to make the weekly column easier to read, so if you want to see my tips for how to maximize profit alongside many thousands of other subscribers, check this link out.
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