Welcome to Upset Watch
If you're new to Pickwatch, or have never read Upset Watch, here's what we do:
With over 35% of NFL games ending in an underdog outright win, it's important to know when upsets are most likely to occur, and which teams to pick.
Every Wednesday, we select a number of underdogs that have a statistically higher chance of winning than others. To do this, we use historical trends, such as the number of underdogs that historically win each week, and we then use a weighted ranking of each team's current 'true' performance to assess how well they are playing, and whether the matchup is favorable.
Why underdogs and not favorites?
Because underdog winners yield bigger profits from the greater odds you face, you don't need to win every pick you make. Our motto is that with Upset Watch, you make more profit from less picks.
In 2021, betting $100 on every underdog winner that we picked would have yielded you a profit of+$3,200 over the course of the season. This year, we have made a profit to this point of +$1740.
Contents (click to jump to section - Pro subscription required for picks):
About Weighted Stats
Our weighted stats in the header for each game are different to the 'raw' stats you can find on other websites.
Weighted stats indicate the performance of a team against the averages of their opponents. For example, if a team scores 30 points against a team that gives up 29 points on average, their weighted performance will be +1. If they score 30 points against a team that gives up 20 points on average, their performance is +10, because they scored 10 points more than that opponent normally allows.
Over the course of a season, we can see the balance of the weighted performance as a 'true' measure of a team's real caliber. A team that ranks highly in a category generally has a good performance in this statistic regardless of how strong their opponents are.
About the stats
We include 4 main categories of weighted stats for offense and defense. These cover scoring, passing, rushing, and pass protection. On defense, we replace pass protection with pass rush.
By placing the units side-by-side with the unit they are up against (eg: Pass protection vs Pass rush) you can not only see where a team is strongest, but also whether the opposing unit is likely to be strong or weak too.
We were so close to breaking a big one this week, but had to settle for a smaller +$70 profit instead!
First off, the good stuff - we nailed underdog winners (Cleveland, Carolina) and a cover (Detroit). Those were some satisfying wins, but the Falcons losing after throwing a pick on the goal line, when it looked like we had a +170 winner, is gut-wrenching. Ditto, we had the Saints to cover against the Niners, and somehow, they contrived to not punch in a score that would have easily covered, despite 7 attempts from inside the 12 yard line, and another drive that ended in a fumble at the 49ers 6 yard line!
In total our wins this season are at +$840 (30-32) and underdog covers at +$906, the latter going 16-6 (73%) on the season. For comparison, only a handful of users out of the tens of thousands of people making picks on Pickwatch have a better record when picking straight up underdogs - and no experts have a better record.
Season Performance
Despite a 'what might have been' type of week, we actually remained profitable, and took our season winnings up to an impressive +$1,746. I should also note that a lot of our score predictions have been incredibly close. For example, we had the exact score in the Houston at Miami game (15-30) and we had the exact scores of 11 teams last week. This data has always been something we used to guide the picks, but some advances in our algorithm work made it a no-brainer to get the new improved version out there, and it's paying off!
Get free access to Upset Watch:
Place a bet as a new customer of BetMGM by following this link, and we'll give you an extension of 1 year on your Pickwatch Pro account once the bet is settled, or 1 year free if you're new to Pro.
Again, new customers only, you must click via that link so we know you did it via us and you can use the code PICKWATCHPRO if prompted - and the offer is available in eligible states only!
Eligible states: IN, CO, MI, IA, MS, IL, TN, NJ, NY, DC, LA, WY, AZ, PA and the province of Ontario in Canada
