Welcome to week 12's Upset Watch

Last week we had another good week, hitting on the Colts (+180) and Steelers (+150) to finish 2-2 and in profit for the 4th time in 5 weeks.

After a slow start that we've talked about at length this season, things are coming back to us in a big way, and our data becomes even more reliable. Last week, our historical data told us 4 underdogs would win. Sure enough, 4 underdogs won!

This week, we're expecting a similar return due to the smaller number of games (13) on the slate, but there are some big opportunities if you look closely. Let's jump into another week of Upset Watch. Remember to check out our game analysis that drops over the back end of the week with in-depth analysis of each team, injury factors, and weighted stats. If you're on the app, use the drop down above this text to find the games!

How Upset Watch works

Each week we select a handful of underdogs who we think are most likely to upset the odds. We accompany these selections with a full analysis of the game, and a list of all games, ordered by our projected probability that the underdog wins.

Our aim is to be in profit by season's end - something we've managed in 7 straight years to a total of $+13,000 in profit. Because of the longer odds of an underdog, anything over a 40% hit rate is likely to yield a profit.

We combine data and trend analysis with good, solid research, to find the underdogs who have a better chance than the odds suggest, and that's what gets results over the long haul.

We can't guarantee you'll win every week, but for 6 years, the method of playing has been profitable every year, so in the long haul, it's a much better chance of winning than betting favorites.

VIP members, read on for our best underdog picks of week 12. Not a VIP member? sign up here!