Welcome to week 11's Upset Watch

Last week we nailed the Panthers (+240), Steelers (+130) and Dolphins (+110) in what was already a profitable week prior to the start of the late window on Sunday. Unfortunately, we did miss one incredible lean, which was the Broncos, on their last second blocked Field Goal.

With things now working in our favor, we also have to battle the football trends, which suggest week 11 is one of the least friendly for us, with an average of only 3.8 underdog winners over the last decade - almost half the best weeks. That means some careful selections are needed, and we'll as always, be drawing on our data modelling and reesearch to make sure we continue our hotter form.

How Upset Watch works

Each week we select a handful of underdogs who we think are most likely to upset the odds. We accompany these selections with a full analysis of the game, and a list of all games, ordered by our projected probability that the underdog wins.

Our aim is to be in profit by season's end - something we've managed in 7 straight years to a total of $+13,000 in profit. Because of the longer odds of an underdog, anything over a 40% hit rate is likely to yield a profit.

We combine data and trend analysis with good, solid research, to find the underdogs who have a better chance than the odds suggest, and that's what gets results over the long haul.

We can't guarantee you'll win every week, but for 6 years, the method of playing has been profitable every year, so in the long haul, it's a much better chance of winning than betting favorites.

VIP members, read on for our best underdog picks of week 11. Not a VIP member? sign up here!