Welcome to Upset Watch
If you're new to Pickwatch, or have never read Upset Watch, here's what we do:
With over 35% of NFL games ending in an underdog outright win, it's important to know when upsets are most likely to occur, and which teams to pick.
Every Wednesday, we select a number of underdogs that have a statistically higher chance of winning than others. To do this, we use historical trends, such as the number of underdogs that historically win each week, and we then use a weighted ranking of each team's current 'true' performance to assess how well they are playing, and whether the matchup is favorable.
Why underdogs and not favorites?
Because underdog winners yield bigger profits from the greater odds you face, you don't need to win every pick you make. Our motto is that with Upset Watch, you make more profit from less picks.
In 2021, betting $100 on every underdog winner that we picked would have yielded you a profit of+$3,200 over the course of the season. This year, we have made a profit to this point of over $1400.
NEW! Contents (click to jump to section - Pro subscription required for picks):
NEW: Score predictions and confidence rankings
This week marks the roll-out of our weighted simulation score predictions, and we're also ordering games by confidence, based on feedback from users.
Every week we run through multiple scenarios based on previous games each team has played against similar opponents, taking into account their recent performances, and any personnel changes or other factors. Our data-led simulation takes into account offensive and defensive weighted performance, and predicts the most likely outcome for each team.
This was a critical tool that we used to get the Super Bowl score margin (and almost the score itself) right earlier in the year, and we now want that data to be available for every pick. It's always been there, but like the confidence picks, feedback suggests that people want to see it!
The new score predictions are not the only factor in our decisions, and we still have human input into every pick, so we're able to override wherever we think the situation is unusual, but we think it will help people understand both how we pick, and why we're so good at picking points totals!
About Weighted Stats
Our weighted stats in the header for each game are different to the 'raw' stats you can find on other websites.
Weighted stats indicate the performance of a team against the averages of their opponents. For example, if a team scores 30 points against a team that gives up 29 points on average, their weighted performance will be +1. If they score 30 points against a team that gives up 20 points on average, their performance is +10, because they scored 10 points more than that opponent normally allows.
Over the course of a season, we can see the balance of the weighted performance as a 'true' measure of a team's real caliber. A team that ranks highly in a category generally has a good performance in this statistic regardless of how strong their opponents are.
About the stats
We include 4 main categories of weighted stats for offense and defense. These cover scoring, passing, rushing, and pass protection. On defense, we replace pass protection with pass rush.
By placing the units side-by-side with the unit they are up against (eg: Pass protection vs Pass rush) you can not only see where a team is strongest, but also whether the opposing unit is likely to be strong or weak too.
Get free access to Upset Watch:
Place a bet as a new customer of BetMGM by following this link, and we'll give you an extension of 1 year on your Pickwatch Pro account once the bet is settled, or 1 year free if you're new to Pro.
Again, new customers only, you must click via that link so we know you did it via us and you can use the code PICKWATCHPRO if prompted - and the offer is available in eligible states only!
Eligible states: IN, CO, MI, IA, MS, IL, TN, NJ, NY, DC, LA, WY, AZ, PA and the province of Ontario in Canada
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UPSET 25