Welcome to the Upset Watch Monday Morning Roundup!
Upset Watch sometimes gets a little hefty to put in any non-pick related musings, and so every week of 2022, I'll be discussing what happened over the games played so far, injuries, performances, and what all of that means for our thinking as the season goes on.
Upset Watch picks
A good start to the season saw us go 3-3 on winners and 2-0 on covers so far (Readers know the Upset Watch picks for tonight in MNF, but I cannot say whether it is an underdog cover or winner). The overall profit was $328 or 41% return on your investment!
The best pick of the week was clearly the Giants, who I thought played to their strengths in the second half, and showed that if they make Saquon Barkley a focal point of ther offense, they can stay in games. It's probably best to keep the ball out of Daniel Jones's hands if he's going to throw frankly dumb picks like he did yesterday with the game on the line, but Brian Daboll's public chastisement seemed to kick Jones into life, so maybe he needs the tough love.
The Vikings were another great pick. I've been on this one for a while now, and it was obvious that the Packers are going to be a very different team on both sides of the ball in 2022, and that the Vikings made big improvements over the offseason. It played out as expected, with the Packers D flailing and Aaron Rodgers unable to avoid the pass rush.
The biggest whiff was the Cowboys, and it's an annoying one. Their offensive line was a major concern, and I spent the column on Wednesday explaining why this would happen, before picking the opposite outcome! As it happened, the Cowboys faced 3rd-and-long way too often, and even before Dak Prescott's injury, it was clear that without an O-line, this offense is a mess (more below).
Expert and user roundup
Shoutout to user rick 1220 who is 14-0 on the week (we discount ties from straight up calculations). Two other users, efromlv and johnnyboy hit 13-1, and 10 other players scored 12-2.
The top-performing expert was On Tap Sports's Joey Ricotta, who didn't pick the Bills or Giants games, but finished 11-1 (91.7%), and interestingly, had picked the Texans to win. 6 experts finished 11-2, including one of our HOF pickers, Jamey Eisenberg of CBS.
With only one game to go, the experts are united in picking the Broncos, but there are some fans who disagree. In fact, 4 of our top 8 are picking Seattle...
Fan Contest
As things stand, GIANTS56 is likely to win the week 1 moneyline contest with a virtual profit of +$631, taking over from shinyhead who had put the maximum stake of $100 on the Cowboys to win last night and fell from the top spot.
In the ATS contest, tanguero23 is leading with +$700, but the race is narrower and because of the more competitive nature of ATS picks (more or less a 50-50 split) it could be very different by morning
Finally, in our Points total over/under contest, a massive shoutout to BigKev, who on profit of +$782 leads from... well, from me actually! I rarely use my public-facing Pickwatch account to make picks, as it can sometimes tip who I am picking in Upset Watch, but as I was testing the app on Sunday, my points total picks went 12-2. A lot of the same logic in Upset Watch goes into making those picks, so it may be something I add to Upset Watch over the season.
Just to make it clear, I am not eligible for prizes, of course.
One final point, I know how tempting it is to stick $100 on every pick, but part of the art of getting this stuff right is knowing when to be cautious and save yourself from losing.
Sure, if you get 80-90% of your picks right, you're going to do pretty well, but let me put it another way - if you go 8-8 (and the odds suggest you'll have more 8-8 weeks than 11-5) then most weeks, you will lose $50 overall once the profit is counted. However, if you put $50 on your losing picks, and $100 on your winning picks, you would be up by $352 on the same 8-8 scoreline!
Over the season, the people who do best will be those who pick and choose where to put the big $100 picks, and where to avoid banana skins. That's my tip of the day, don't get caught up in who wins the weekly contest this week, look at who balances out after 3-4 weeks with the best strategy, and is making the most money from the fewest wins. That's the Upset Watch way.
Injury Roundup
The Cowboys were already looking bad before Prescott's hand was fractured, and this may be a small blessing in disguise for him, because Dallas look set to have one of the worst - if not the worst - offensive lines in the game this year.
Prescott is set to return midseason, but it's likely the Cowboys will see how Cooper Rush does before jumping into the QB market, because ultimately, behind that line, any new QB would likely be unable to change the trajectory of this team.
This injury didn't look terrible at the time, but the talk coming from the Patriots suggests it could be one that keeps him out of a game or two. The x-rays were negative (that's positive...) but that doesn't mean there isn't a problem that could keep him out of games.
The good news is that if it's a muscle injury, it can probably be managed to some extent, but ask Tony Romo about trying to play through back pain, and he'll tell you how difficult that was. Fundamentally, the Patriots need to look long term with Jones, as like the Cowboys, they may be closer to bottom than top of their division, whether he plays or not.
This one is big for the Steelers. Watt had a sack and an interception when he injured his pectoral muscle and left the game. If it is torn, he's done for the season unless the Steelers go on an unlikely playoff run without him, but if it's the lesser 'partial tear', there's a chance he returns for a late-season push.
Either way, Watt's presence is impossible to replace, and the Steelers will be reliant on their defense to get wins. As injuries go, this one is a dagger, and it's not the only one...
Harris may miss no time, but the fact he left on Sunday in a walking boot suggests that is optimistic.
If he does miss time, the Steelers may be a very different team, and it won't help them win games, because like Watt, Harris is an integral part of their success. He may not have done a lot on Sunday, but fundamentally, the more you put the ball in Mitch Trubisky's hands, the more chance of the game going awry.
Mike Tomlin will be hoping Harris is back as soon as possible, because the Steelers would look a very different team without him leading the way.
Under the radar, this may be one of the most consequential injuries of week 1.
The Chargers managed to hold on for victory after Allen left, but make no mistake, he is Justin Herbert's big outlet, and even if DeAndre Carter can provide some short-term relief, Allen's injury hurts the team's chances of knocking off the Chiefs in a short week.
The positive noises Allen made about even potentially playing Thursday seem wildly optimistic, and I think it's more likely the Chargers take it easy, with matchups against the Jaguars, Texans and Browns up after Kansas City.
Mitchell is unfortunately injured once more with what looks like a serious knee injury that will keep him out for an extended period.
That hurts both him and the team. For the player, it represents the latest blow in a career that is threatening to be derailed before it even gets started. With durability clearly an issue, Mitchell is unlikely to be entrusted with lead-back duties by the 49ers if and when he returns.
For the 49ers, it caps off a poor weekend, and leaves the team light at RB. Jeff Wilson will come in, and he's serviceable, but he lacks Mitchell's explosiveness or contribution in the passing game. Given the way the 49ers played Sunday, the running game needs to be firing if they're to make the best of a tough schedule.