Not a good week for betting as the lines are generally very good, but there are a couple of spreads that I don't like the look of...

Banker or the Week:
Last week: **Carolina**(+3.0) @ Kansas City

Difficult to predict the events that occurred last weekend, and I wouldn't like to use them as an excuse, so I called this one completely wrong.

This week: Pittsburgh @ San Diego (9.5)
At some point, you have to look at the reality of this situation and question the odds against San Diego when they're facing Charlie Batch - or a QB who hasn't played for 3 weeks because of a serious injury - and the Steelers. Do I expect them to win? I don't know about that, but I like them to be within 10pts against a Steelers offence that isn't particularly high-octane at the best of times. If Ben is back I doubt the Steelers will try to make too much of a statement, so the Chargers are nice value here.

Long shot of the week: **
**Last Week: Philadelphia (10.0)@ Dallas

Dead easy this one - Dallas actually looked like covering this late on, but then gave up a return TD needlessly. It's ok though, that's just what the Cowboys do. (P.S. - the call doesn't come form Vegas (as people like to speculate) because if there's one bunch of players who would be inclined to blow the whistle on such shenanigans, it'd be the Special Teamers whose income is a fraction of the big earners. Think about that dynamic and understand your conspiracy theories are bunk.)
This Week: Detroit (7.0) @ Green Bay

Fun fact: Last year the same fixture threw up a massive game that ended 41-45 in favour of the Packers, with Matt Flynn in for Aaron Rodgers at QB for the Pack.

This year there's a couple of big factors that I think have been massively overlooked by the experts - none of whom have picked the Lions. Firstly, Stafford actually went for 520yds in that game, in the cold and wind. This year snow is 'likely' but I think the Lions will be ok with that, as Calvin Johnson is one of those 'any down, any distance, any place' kind of guys and they have no reason to feel nervous about the snow. Johnson had 244yds at Lambeau last year and has arguably got even better since.

The second factor is perhaps bigger: The Packers have injuries at key positions. Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews missed this game last year as they were rested, and look at how the defence performed in their absence. This year their injuries have hurt the Packers defensively, but they've had the offence to cover it. Now with receiver Jordy Nelson also injured - along with RB James Starks - the Packers may actually need to adjust their offensive dynamic beyond just 'next man up', particularly without a running game.

I hate the Packers without a RB, they've got a real problem when they lose their offensive balance (as they did early in the season) and so despite the fact that this puts me right out on a limb, I have to go with Detroit to at least beat the spread on Sunday night.

Tempting odds to avoid: **
**Last Week: Jacksonville (7.0)@ Buffalo

You can always trust the Jags to not deliver.

This week: St.Louis @ Buffalo (-3.0)
Last week I said you should rely on the Bills at home in bad weather - guess what? This week I'm telling you to do the opposite.

St.Louis are one of my sleeper teams at the moment. They're on a solid run and their defence is in good form. They're getting aggressive and if there's one thing Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't keen on it's a defence that comes out to force takeaways. Meanwhile on the other side of the ball Sam Bradford has been average, but he has managed to win games without his biggest weapon (Danny Amendola) by making use of Chris Givens, Brandon Gibson and various other targets like Lance Kendricks at TE. I don't think the Bills defence is a pushover, but I do fancy the Rams to keep this one nice and close.