The most common queries we get from fans are that an expert has changed their picks during the week. There's nothing wrong with changing your mind, but it does seem that many experts don't quite understand how much emphasis fans put on their opinions and don't put enough time and effort into their analysis of every week's matchups.

Perhaps worse, we've uncovered circumstantial evidence in the last week that a few experts may have gone beyond that carelessness, and actively misled the public by changing picks after games have started or even once the results are in. We haven't named names yet simply because we didn't take screenshots to prove it (obviously we were too trusting...), however in future we'll be screenshotting (a new verb I invented) every NFL expert at game time.

As you know, this page has no problem biting the very hand that feeds it. Indeed, we're pretty much rabid Alsatians when it comes to highlighting experts who are hypocritical or hey, just plain wrong. From now on, we'll be taking huge delight in embarrassing any NFL expert who we catch doctoring their season records.

With that in mind, here's 5 more reasons for NFL experts to treat their picks with a bit more care in future.

1: Pick 'em Leagues

Oh but they're just a bit of fun right? WRONG. First up, even free leagues are competitive brag-fests, but when we move towards those leagues with cash prizes? You'd better believe people are taking things seriously and looking for any edge they can find. Some people might exclusively roll with one expert all year long, but most will look for a wide range of opinions to help them pick games.

Considering that we're planning to offer a big cash prize to our new Pick 'em challenge winners next season, you can understand why we'll be holding experts to a higher standard in future...

2: Survivor Pools

As the winner of my survivor pool tourney twice in the last two years (Just thought I'd shoehorn that one in), I just want sportswriters to understand that when you're down to Week 9 and you've used up all of your 'bankers', one of the first places you'll turn for a difficult matchup is - you guessed it - the experts. Our Expert Consensus ranking also helps fans choose those matchups in which analysts have the most confidence.

Maybe it's a reassurance thing, like a mother clasping the Cardinals at home to Jacksonville tight to her bosom, but whatever the reason, we do use it and it does work when people know who to trust. Of course there'll be anomalies, and that's why nobody can predict every game right, but just remember that a throwaway guarantee of victory for the Browns on the road in Cincinnati might be the catalyst for someone's epic victory or cataclysmic defeat.

3: Betting

Shhh. Whisper it quietly, but yes, fans have been known to

have the odd flutter on NFL games. Shocking, I know. Don't tell Roger, the guy is a madman who will literally come into your home and get you in a really tight headlock until you promise not to gamble ever again.

The reality is that many people do gamble on the NFL and yes, in some cases it makes it more exciting. Pickwatch has always embraced this and we know that many of our hundreds of thousands of readers will be looking for a hot tip for this week's NFL betting.

Some experts also embrace this and even talk openly of taboo subjects such as 'the spread', 'money lines' or 'how to use property deeds as a stake'. Ok the last one I made up, but anyway, ignoring the fact that there's money on NFL games is just another convenient way for NFL analysts to pretend nobody notices when they get things wildly wrong. They do, and you shouldn't be half-assing your picks when people use them to justify why they lost money to their wives/girlfriends/landlords.

4: Your Reputation, Damn it!

One of the great truisms of NFL media analysis is that frankly, many of the former players and coaches around the NFL are in their position purely because they played or coached the game well. Does that offer them a good insight into how the game is played? Yup. Does it mean they have a clue about how each NFL team is doing in relation to their opponents that week? Nope. I mean seriously a staggering number of our worst pickers are ex-pros who very clearly don't treat their predictions with anywhere near the level of gravitas that is then placed on them on television or in web articles.

Conversely, we've noticed an upward curve for so-called 'Fantasy experts' such as KC Joyner of ESPN, Jamey Eisenberg of CBS and Matt Smith of NFL Network. These guys haven't played the game, but they know their stuff when it comes to picking one of two opposing teams to score more than their counterparts, thus 'winning' an NFL game if you will. Similarly, some of the guys at Bleacher Report don't have the same standing with fans as the big name sports reporters, yet they consistently outperform them in this, the most basic and tangible way of proving your NFL knowledge.

You know what is funny? I think NFL media executives believe that if a guy was a good player or a good coach, they must know what they're talking about full stop. Well, Coach Steve Mariucci had a pretty average record as a head coach (sorry Steve), yet he remains consistently good in picking games and is on pace to finish in Pickwatch's top 20 for the second year running.

Why is Mooch so good? Because he thinks about his picks. It's really that simple. One of the reasons I'm all for guys and girls changing their picks if they believe they're wrong is that stubborn wrong-headedness is not the trait of someone who understands the NFL. Instead, adapting to weekly news and injury reports is what breeds success both on and off the field.

You don't have to be good to earn props from Pickwatch and NFL fans, but you do have to show your working out.

5: Respect for Fans

Listen, we get that you have bigger things going on in your life. maybe you've been declared bankrupt lately? Maybe your job is on the line because you've been accused of a crime? Maybe all of these things and more apply to you, Warren Sapp, but there are also other pressures on less mental NFL analysts who have real life shiz to take care of every week.

We get that.

But what fans don't like is that many NFL experts appear to phone in their picks, or even worse, cover themselves by backing both horses in a two way race. There have been numerous examples this year of media TV personalities picking different ways on each radio/TV interview they do. It's something we'll be highlighting when we see it, so feel free to get in touch if you want us to publicise someone backing both teams.

The thing is, nobody is asking you to be right, but they do want you to understand that picking games isn't necessarily something you should be doing without accepting that you have been put on your pedestal because you are perceived to have some insight that we don't have. If you consistently prove otherwise, you're not doing something right. Not because you can't, but for some reason, because you won't.

Before you go and blame HATERS or something, why not just... y'know... apply your 'insight' a little better? Why not dedicate yourself to making sure that this tangible way of fans assessing your knowledge can't ever be held up as a reason why you know less than the average Joe when it comes to pro football?

We know you know more, that's why it is frustrating to see people neglect their picks on a weekly basis. There are some guys who take care over their picks, change them as the week goes on to reflect circumstances around the two teams, and generally give the impression of people who... well... give a damn?

Rant over. You might, as an expert, feel that it's unfair that you be judged arbitrarily on your picking record, but the key word here is 'respect'. If you show respect for fans by explaining your picks, then you can lose with pride. All fans want is for you to put the same level of thought in as they do.
If you think these points were about you, then before you unfollow us on twitter, or take a huff and promise not to pick any games if people don't want them, why not think about what you can do better next week instead? Fans respect those analysts towards the top of the Pickwatch standings, but they also respect some of those at the bottom because they care about being right or wrong. Just think about that...