Welcome to the Upset Watch Monday Morning Roundup!
Every week I look back on Monday at the weekend's games. I'll be talking about what we learned, the success of our picks so far, and any musings that I find interesting. This week, we start with a bullet dodged...
Upset Watch picks
Well, that could have been a lot worse.
We finished the day with a small profit, in no small part due to the 100% record of our underdog cover picks.
The Jets, Falcons and Cardinals were our Sunday covers, and they all delivered - though they also all left it late. That's the beauty of such bad spreads, you know that even as an underdog who is seemingly beaten, there is a strong chance that they can get within 7-10pts by the end of the game.
We have 2 more games to come tonight, and those of you who have read Upset Watch know who my picks are for those games. While I can't give anything away in this free article, I still think there's a solid chance for us to finish in profit.
From a wins perspective, we had Miami to win, but when the Commanders and Panthers let us down, the Dolphins comeback saved our day from a wins perspective.
The Seattle game was difficult for a couple of reasons. Trey Lance's injury was not only bad for the player, but bad for us, as the pick was largely predicated on Lance's struggles. When Jimmy Garropolo took over, you saw the 49ers offense start to play it's more 2021 gameplan of wearing down the defense with the run game, and Jimmy G moving the chains. That said, Seattle's offense didn't turn up at all, so I can't really complain either way.
So tonight will be an interesting night for us. It's the fabled MNF double-header, so don't forget that the first game starts at 7:30pm ET, and the second an hour later. If you want the picks for that game, click here.
Expert and user roundup
Fan Contest
The unpredictability of week 2 hit the experts badly - no expert picked more than 10 games correctly.
But our users are always worth following. Our Moneyline contest leader with 2games left this week is Vegaslock, who has a current profit of +$704 on the week, with second placed fat boy on +$518, and a number of other players within striking distance if their picks win and the top guys lose.
Overall in the season-long contest, Shinyhead and GIANTS56 both did well enough to push over the +$1k mark for the season after solid but unspectacular weeks. It's a marathon, not a sprint, and the good thing for new players is that we would peg the final winning total at somewhere around +$10k by the end of the season, so a good run could net you a cash prize!
In the ATS contest, swishmiss2469 went 13-1 and unsurprisingly, is leading on +$654 heading into Monday. Interestingly, their nearest competitor nailed the 'more return for less picks' mantra I talk about, returning +$527 on just 9 winners. Those picks you avoid are sometimes the most important ones.
The season-long contest is pretty close, with nobody dominating, but gnflzonewatch is currently +$21 ahead of DannyBoy29 who was also careful with his stakes this week and minimized his losses.
Finally, our Over/Under contest is a close affair this weekend, with capen just +$2 ahead of bammbamm64 who is second on +$690.
In the season contest, I am embarrassingly still top on +$976 (and of course, I will be passing any prizes I win down to the second placed person), despite being 253rd in wins.
That's because, if you look at my stakes, I was careful to avoid staking $100 on everything. I went 8-6, but only one of those losing picks had a $100 stake, whereas 6 of my winners did. The games I was most confident in, I won, the games I wasn't, I lost, but only lost around half of what I would have had I staked the maximum on everything.
Injury Roundup
Oh man, where do you begin? Lance was not great last week and I had signposted this game against the very beatable Seahawks as a huge indicator of his season trajectory. It was arguably the most vital game of Lance's career so far, one that would either put the calls for Jimmy G to bed for a while, or add momentum to replacing him.
Unfortunately, we didn't get to see much of Lance, and we won't until next season, because the first-quarter ankle injury he suffered has ended his 2022 campaign before it had even really got going. It's a devastating blow for Lance, and adds intrigue to his future that was unimaginable. He will now enter 2023 as effectively a 3rd year rookie, coming off a long term injury.
As for Garropolo, this was of course great news for him. Everyone can pretend they care about the other guy, but ultimately Jimmy G wants to play, and Lance's injury has validated his decision to stick around in San Francisco. Most interestingly of all, he gives the 49ers a far better shot at winning in the near future, and his presence immediately lifts the 49ers back into NFC West contention.
The good news for Jeudy is that he's seemingly not broken anything, and it appears to be a pain management issue. The team has called it a 'rib' injury, which will be an interesting one for a receiver to play with given the sheer amount of contact he will be faced with. If the pain is severe, it'll be hard for him to suit up and be an effective outlet for Russell Wilson.
He'd be a big miss for Denver, who desperately need a big play threat. More on that later...
Conner went down in the third quarter with an ankle injury, and the fact that his status was not clarified by the Cards in postgame pressers suggests the injury may be the kind where he'll miss time.
If so, the Cardinals will turn to Eno Benjamin and Darrel Williams. Conner was not playing particularly well behind a terrible offensive line, but his absence would be a blow to the Cardinals, who increasingly seem dependent on Kyler Murray for their entire offensive output.