Here are my Week 4 picks with confidence level selections.

The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 will be available for all NFL Pickwatch readers. The picks with a 6+ confidence level, a group of selections that have netted a 96-33
record over the past two seasons (including a 13-5 mark this year), will be available
exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.

Pickwatch Pro is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winnersfor every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheatcode to beat the sportsbooks over the last five years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Now let’s get to this week’s picks!

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
KC’s pick: Cincinnati | Confidence level: 4

The Bengals offense gets most of the attention for this club, but Cincinnati’s defense
has actually played quite well this year. That platoon ranks sixth in scoring drive
percentage (per Pro Football Reference), fourth in net yards per pass attempt, fourth in
yards per play, and sixth in points allowed. Jacksonville’s offense has been a turnover
machine, as the Jaguars have thrown an interception or lost a fumble on a league high
25.7 percent of their drives. The Bengals will be without Tee Higgins and Jessie Bates,
but the skills of Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, and Ja’Marr Chase plus Jacksonville playing a
short week road game all combine to put this pick in the Bengals column.

Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons
KC’s pick: Atlanta | Confidence level: 4

Washington’s offense was supposed to take a big step back after Ryan Fitzpatrick was
injured, but Taylor Heinicke has played fairly well, and the Football Team has scored 51
points in the two games following Fitzpatrick’s departure. The problem for Washington is
their defense has regressed as much if not more than their offense has progressed. The
Football Team has allowed 391+ yards in every game this year and ranks 29 th in
passing yards allowed. The Falcons offense is still trying to find its way under Arthur
Smith, but this matchup should allow Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts and company
to have its best day of the season, so the Falcons get this selection.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
KC’s pick: San Francisco | Confidence level: 3

Seattle is in the midst of an internal battle between those who want to go with a pass-
heavy approach and those who prefer the ground game. Pete Carroll definitely wants to
go with the latter in part to protect a defense that has given up 985 offensive yards over
the past two weeks. The 49ers have no such strife, as they know exactly what type of
team they want to be and are only one miscalculated touchdown score against Green
Bay from being 3-0 with that approach. The clear mind is preferred over the cluttered
one, so the 49ers get this selection.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
KC’s pick: Detroit | Confidence level: 2

There is not a team in the league with more moxie and fight than the Lions, as this club
has bought into Dan Campbell’s hyperaggressive approach 100 percent. This spirit has
made up for a lack of talent and led Detroit to almost make a comeback against San
Francisco in Week 1, stay with the Packers for a half in Week 2, and would have led to
an upset over Baltimore were it not for the greatest regular season field goal in NFL
history. The Bears don’t have that same spirit, as this team looks close to throwing in
the towel on its coach, so the Lions are the upset pick in this matchup.

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys
KC’s pick: Dallas | Confidence level: 1

Carolina’s defense has been superb this year in many areas and has allowed only 30
points in three games, but they did this against the Jets, Saints, and Texans when
Houston was starting a third string quarterback in a short week matchup. The Panthers
will get their first true test against a Cowboys offense that rates fifth in yards gained and
fourth in offensive expected points added. Carolina’s offense has been very efficient
and could pose a challenge for an inconsistent Dallas defense. The confluence of these
factors is enough to call this a true toss up, so the tiebreaker is to go with the home
team by the smallest of margins.

Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins
KC’s pick: Indianapolis | Confidence level: 1

These are two very desperate teams, as the Colts are 0-3 and only a fumble late in the
fourth quarter by New England in Week 1 saved Miami from the same winless fate. Both
offenses are dealing with quarterback injuries, as the Dolphins will have Jacoby Brissett
replacing Tua Tagovailoa and Carson Wentz may still be slowed by injuries to both of
his ankles. This should be a rush-heavy game, as Miami and Indianapolis have allowed
100+ rushing yards in every contest. That factor would seem to favor the Colts, as they
have the makings of a stronger ground game, so they get the pick in this one by a very
slim amount.

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings
KC’s pick: Minnesota | Confidence level: 3

Kevin Stefanski led the Browns to their best season since the Bill Belichick days by
leaning heavily on one of the strongest rushing attacks in the league. That approach is
paying dividends this year as well, as Cleveland ranks first in rushing touchdowns,
second in rushing yards, and has posted 153 or more yards on the ground in every
game this year. Minnesota has taken a similar tack in some ways, as the Vikings have
gained 317 rushing yards over the past two weeks, but Minnesota is also getting superb
play from Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen. That aerial firepower is
something the Browns can’t match, and this game is in Minnesota, so the Vikings are
the preferred option.

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints
KC’s pick: New Orleans | Confidence level: 3

It wasn’t that long ago when it would have seemed impossible for a Sean Payton
offense to post 151 or fewer passing yards in three straight games, but that’s exactly
what the Saints have done this year. It’s a strategy designed in part to limit interceptions
by almost eliminating passes and it has worked, as New Orleans has the sixth lowest
turnover drive percentage in the league. The Giants take a similar tack and are now
getting Saquon Barkley up to speed, so this should be a ground-based slugfest. If this
were a neutral site, these factors would make this a tossup, but since this is the home
opener for the Saints, and the Giants have a slew of wide receiver injuries, this pick
goes to New Orleans

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos

KC’s pick: Denver | Confidence level: 2

The Ravens come into this contest with a 2-1 record, but that may be a bit of a mirage,
as they were on track to lose to the Chiefs before making a great defensive play and
would have lost to the lowly Lions were it not for a miracle field goal. Denver’s 3-0 mark
may be equally illusory, as the three teams they have beaten have yet to win a contest
this season. This game will provide some clearer answers as to how good these teams
really are, so this is a game to go the home field tiebreaker route and select Denver.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
KC’s pick: Los Angeles | Confidence level: 1

This game has shootout written all over it. The Cardinals have racked up 31+ points and
400+ offensive yards in three straight games, while the Rams have posted 27+ points
and 370+ offensive yards in that same span. In matchups like this, it can often boil down
to which team is best suited to keep the scoring pace going. The Rams may be without
Darrell Henderson, who is battling a rib injury, but the Cardinals may not have DeAndre
Hopkins, who is also deal with a rib issue. Henderson is more readily replaced than
Hopkins, and when that is combined with this game being held in Los Angeles, the
Rams are the pick in a photo finish.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
KC’s pick: Las Vegas | Confidence level: 4

Who in the world would have thought that after three weeks of the 2021 season that
Derek Carr would be leading the league in passing yards and ranking second in pass
attempts and completions? Carr did this against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Miami, three
defenses that, while not quite up to their superb standard of last season, are still
talented and well coached platoons. The Raiders can also claim one of the best pass
rushing platoons in the NFL. The Chargers are getting elite performance from Mike
Williams and have racked up six turnovers on defense, but they also have a penchant
for not effectively closing out games, so Las Vegas is the pick in this one.

KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 96-33 over the
past two seasons (including a 13-5 mark this year), are available exclusively to
Pickwatch Pro subscribers.

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills
KC’s pick: Buffalo | Confidence level: 9

David Culley has done a superb job with the Texans, as he has kept his team’s effort
level high and has them focused on playing as well as they can. The issue for Culley is
that talent eventually wins out and Houston just doesn’t have enough of it, especially
since they now have a third string quarterback under center. Buffalo’s offense has hit its
stride the past couple of weeks on the way, scoring a combined 78 points against Miami
and Washington, and should be able to keep that trend going against the Texans shaky
defense. Add this to the contest being in Buffalo and this one easily goes to Buffalo.

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets
KC’s pick: Tennessee | Confidence level: 9

The Jets offense is so awful that it is almost comically inept. New York ranks dead last
in scoring drive percentage, points scored, and offensive expected points added and
then adds in a No. 29 ranking in turnover drive percent. The Jets have also allowed the
highest pass pressure rate and the most sacks. The Titans offense has been hitting all
cylinders the last two games, as Derrick Henry has led this platoon to 392 rushing yards
in that span. The Jets have no way of matching that offensive firepower, so this one
goes quite easily to Tennessee.

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
KC’s pick: Kansas City | Confidence level: 6

Kansas City’s offense has not lacked for explosiveness this season, as the Chiefs have
racked up 397+ offensive yards in every game, rank tied for third in yards per play, and
tied for fifth in points scored. The issue for Andy Reid’s squad is Patrick Mahomes’
penchant for making risky passes has finally caught up with him and resulted in Kansas
City placing next to last in turnover drive percentage. This trend might not continue
against an Eagles defense that ranks tied for 29 th in opponents turnover drive
percentage. Jalen Hurts also doesn’t have the passing game weaponry to keep up with
Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce, so the Chiefs get the nod here.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers

KC’s pick: Green Bay | Confidence level: 6

The Steelers may be on the verge of a nightmarish season. Their run blocking might be
the worst in the league. Their pass rush has faltered due to injury and their work in
progress secondary has mediocre coverage metrics and only one interception. Ben
Roethlisberger is dealing with a pectoral injury and his passes look nearly as lifeless as
they did late last year when his arm wore down from throwing 40 passes per game. This
is not a recipe for success when going on the road to face Aaron Rodgers, Davante
Adams, and Aaron Jones, so rate the Packers in this one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots
KC’s pick: Tampa Bay | Confidence level: 6

It’s tough to think of many paths to victory for the Patriots. They can try running the ball,
but Tampa Bay ranks fourth in rushing yards allowed. New England can aim to put the
ball in the air against a suspect Buccaneers secondary, but how much faith can one put
in a passing game led by a rookie quarterback throwing aerials to Jakobi Meyers,
Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne? New England has fared well on defense so far
this year, but that was against the Dolphins, Jets, and Saints, three of the worst
offenses in the league. Bill Belichick’s coaching is what keeps this pick from going even
more heavily in Tampa Bay’s direction, but it still has a heavy lean towards Tampa Bay.