Last week, we talked about how NFL home-field advantage doesn’t seem to be a thing in 2021. Week 6 road teams responded by going 9-5 straight up, and road favorites—usually teams you want to fade—went 6-1 against the spread.
Oddsmakers have been quietly tightening their home-field advantage line adjustment from three points down to two over the last decade or so, but if there’s no longer any disadvantage to playing away from home, those are two free points for ATS pickers.
If you’re looking for road teams you can trust this weekend, look no further than our Pro Stats Insights. Four NFL clubs playing away this weekend have all three of our most-predictive matchup metrics tilted in their favor:
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins
Of these two teams’ last 15 games, 76.5 percent were covered by the team that allowed fewer rushing yards; the Falcons have allowed 6.8 fewer rushing yards per game than the Dolphins so far this season. Atlanta also has similarly narrow edges in points scored and points allowed, the two next-most important predictive stats. In fact, five of the top six most-predictive stats favor the Falcons.
Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at New York Giants
With a rushing defense that’s just 0.2 average yards per game better than the Giants, we can’t claim the Panthers have a huge advantage in this matchup’s top stat. But they have significant advantages in the next four most-predictive numbers: Passing yards, points scored, passing yardage allowed and rushing yards allowed. Points allowed also leans very slightly their way, making it a clean Carolina sweep of our most-predictive stats.
Indianapolis Colts (+4) at San Francisco 49ers
With 60 percent relevance, rushing yards is the most predictive stat for this matchup of two underperforming teams--and Indianapolis has a whopping 23.3 yards-per-game edge over San Francisco. The Colts also have advantages in the other two top-most categories, including a big 4.1 point-per-game margin in points scored.
New Orleans Saints (-4) at Seattle Seahawks
The Saints have a sizable advantage in all three of our most-predictive stats for this matchup: 4.1 more points scored per game, 20.9 yards rushing yards per game, and -2.7 points allowed per game. They also have pretty big edges in two of the remaining three stats, meaning five of our six most-predictive numbers are all leaning strongly New Orleans’ way.