It's that special time of year where we have to accept that the football season is basically over.
There's a moment in every Super Bowl where it's actually tangible to everyone watching, that you've taken the last few months for granted, that football will stop existing**as part of your life**.
I've managed to pinpoint it to when the kicker and his coverage unit start to break into a run... you hold your breath... he kicks... it's over. Everything in the season that passed before that moment ceases to matter as you know that there are 3 hours left to soak in meaningful NFL action.
It's actually one of the great ironies of football, that you spend all year waiting for the most important game of the season, and then sometimes it's hard to enjoy because you just - so badly - want it to be great. Last year's dismal blowout of the Broncos was a classic example of when you get a mid-Super Bowl pang that screams 'September is the next time you get to see a good game of football'.
But hey we've got all year to talk about this. Let's get on with the Super Bowl pick.
Before I give you my pick, let's have a look at some relevant stats. I'm not a huge believer that you can rely on stats to tell how a game will go (see last year) but I think that there are some relevant ones amongst the overload of numbers.
Regular Season Stats
Category
Regular season
12-4
12-4
Points (avg)
29.2
24.6
Points allowed
19.6
15.9
Yards per game
365.5
375.8
Yards allowed per game
344.1
267.1
Passing yards p/g
257.6
203.1
Rushing yards p/g
107.9
172.6
Passing yards allowed p/g
239.81
185.6
Rushing yards allowed p/g
104.3
81.5
Turnover differential
+12
+10
Verdict: Seahawks Win
Despite identical regular season records, the Seahawks bossed most of the yardage related categories, but it's worth noting that the Pats had a better turnover differential (although the same number of defensive turnovers), more points (a clumsy stat to even have in a debate, given the amount of garbage points you can get in the NFL) and more passing yards. The last is the least surprising, but turnover differential is a really important stat to note over a long period of time. The narrative of this Super Bowl has been that the Seahawks Defense is the key, yet the Patriots have arguably been more effective in the ball security game.
Postseason Stats
Category
Postseason yards per game
409.5
372.5
Postseason yards allowed per game
318
334
Postseason Passing yards p/g
314
225.5
Postseason Rushing yards p/g
95.5
147
Postsesason Passing yards allowed p/g
209
200.5
Postsesason Rushing yards allowed p/g
109.5
133.5
Postseason points p/g
40
29.5
Postseason points allowed p/g
19
19.5
Turnover differential
+3
0
Verdict: Patriots Win
Boom. Big win for the Pats here. The key problem with this type of statistic is the very small sample size. I question the relevance of postseason statistics beyond the very very glaring, because how much can you learn (statistically) about a team's trends in 2 high-pressure games? Then we have the Pats' blowout of the Colts - that game skews this so far that it's almost irrelevant.
Still, the Patriots have scored a lot of points and of course, put up a lot of yards. Again, they've won the turnover battle, but it's worth noting that this is primarily due to Russell Wilson's 4 INT's - the Seahawks actually forced one more turnover in the postseason than the Patriots so far.
ATS Stats
Category
ATS
10-8
11-7
ATS Home
6-4
7-3
ATS Road
4-4
4-4
Last 5
W-L-L-L-W
W-W-W-W-L
Last 10
W-W-W-L-W-W-L-L-L-W
W-L-W-W-W-W-W-W-W-L
Verdict: Seahawks Win
Listen, I'd set a lot of stall by this, but we can't, because it's a 1 point line. I know that's still a point, but let's put that into perspective: The Seahawks have only faced two relevant lines this season - a +1.5pt line at San Francisco (won) and a pick'em at Kansas City (lost). Both of those games were in November, and the Seahawks have had an average spread of -9 since then. It helps to know that they've beaten big spreads, but it doesn't tell us much about their matchup with another premier team.
Now the Patriots, they've failed to beat big spreads recently, which makes me wary of backing them to pull away, but they were consistent as close underdogs this season, going 3-1 (they lost to the Packers when +3, but beat Buffalo, Denver and Indy while underdogs). Again, worth noting that all of these games were wins, not close losses. The Pats have stepped up their game against big opposition.
The Experts
(best straight up record)
Pick
Seahawks (best straight up record)
Pick
Dan Hanzus
88.89%
SEA
Cris Carter
83.33%
SEA
Alex Marvez
83.33%
SEA
FOX.com Editors
83.33%
NE
Cris Carter
83.33%
SEA
Marc Sessler
83.33%
NE
Mike Freeman
83.33%
NE
Rivers McCown
83.33%
SEA
PFT Commenter
83.33%
NE
Accuscore
77.78%
SEA
Brad Gagnon
77.78%
NE
Adam Schefter
77.78%
NE
Chris Mortensen
77.78%
NE
Brent Sobleski
77.78%
SEA
Don Banks
77.78%
-
Chris Hansen
77.78%
SEA
Erik Frenz
77.78%
NE
Chris Wesseling
77.78%
NE
FiveThirtyEight
77.78%
SEA
Dave Richard
77.78%
SEA
Gordon McGuinness
77.78%
SEA
Elliot Harrison
77.78%
NE
Gregg Rosenthal
77.78%
NE
Gregg Rosenthal
77.78%
NE
James Koh
77.78%
SEA
Jamey Eisenberg
77.78%
NE
Jim Corbett
77.78%
NE
Jim Corbett
77.78%
NE
Jimmy Traina
77.78%
NE
John Breech
77.78%
SEA
Matt Bowen
77.78%
SEA
Kevin Patra
77.78%
SEA
Michael Schottey
77.78%
SEA
Keyshawn Johnson
77.78%
NE
Mike Florio
77.78%
SEA
Khaled Elsayed
77.78%
NE
Numberfire
77.78%
SEA
Kurt Warner
77.78%
SEA
Pickwatch
77.78%
SEA
Lorenzo Reyes
77.78%
NE
Rick Drummond
77.78%
SEA
Mark Malone
77.78%
-
Steve Palazzolo
77.78%
NE
Mark Schlereth
77.78%
NE
Michael Fabiano
77.78%
-
Pickwatch
77.78%
SEA
Pickwatch Users
77.78%
SEA
Rich Eisen
77.78%
SEA
Ryan Van Bibber
77.78%
SEA
Vinnie Iyer
77.78%
SEA
WalterFootball
77.78%
SEA
Zach Kruse
77.78%
SEA
Expert Consensus:
55.00%
Expert Consensus:
57.14%
Verdict: Seahawks Win
This is a big one in a game of such small margins, those who have consistently picked these two teams correctly this season - and remember those tricky matchups mentioned above for the Patriots - have favored the Seahawks. Our top Against the Spread experts have also gone heavily in on Seattle too. We often like to highlight that it's possible to look through our stats and come to a more reasoned approach about which experts to follow, and this is a prime example.
Our full expert table currently (Saturday morning) has the Seahawks favored by just 52% - a tiny gauge that the overall consensus is in favor of the Hawks too. There is still time for that to change, as the difference is only a few picks either way and there are still some to come in, but this has been the case for most of the week - I think it's unlikely you'll see a big swing to New England at this stage.
My Super Bowl Pick: Seattle (straight up and +1 ATS)
This was such a difficult choice. For one thing, I really want Tom Brady to win another Super Bowl, and I think the Patriots deserve it for their body of work over the last 15 years. The cheating stuff? Minor. Sure, I support the league coming down on them, but if you think that it's possible to make your entire team simply play better by cheating... well more fool you.
The patriots have won for the last 15 years because they're coached by the joint best coach of all-time, with Bill Walsh. That, to me, should never be disputed based on the evidence we've seen.
But this Seattle team is special. There's an air of the '85 Bears, or the Steelers under Cowher and Tomlin. In short, this is a team that doesn't quit, and never accepts defeat, even when it looks inevitable.
I can't look past some of the plays that Russell Wilson has made with the game on the line. They're simply beyond comparison with any other QB playing the game today, because nobody has the self-belief that Wilson does.
They're all just too rational. When Wilson is down, he uses sheer blind faith in his ability (and his religion) to pull him through. I don't see that from the cynical Bradys and Mannings. They have tasted defeat too many times now, and it has hurt their faith that their own ability can compensate for the rest of their team when necessary.
He's helped by the league's best defence, the type that gives QB's nightmares - and I mean the type of nightmares where you wake up and wonder if you just dropped the ball in front of 2 billion people. They don't have a weak link, and they make it hard to rebuild momentum once the game gets away from you.
That said, I think forecasts for a blowout are wrong. I said it before the Conference Championship games, but Seattle will always allow their opponents a shot, before coming back and winning against the odds. This time, the odds are literally against them, and that's simply the cherry on top of this cake.
There are too many times in football when you let your heart rule your head, and unfortunately for Tom Brady and the Patriots, I think they'll be beaten by a coach in Pete Carroll who may one day be in the same conversations with Walsh and Belichick.