Time for our last minute picks of the week, where we offer a modicum of insight into why we're leaning in one direction (the only time they'll get a mention on here) or another
In week 6 we went 10-4 both straight up and ATS - albeit with different picks in each, leaving our season record at 61% straight up and through 2 weeks of ATS picking, 69%.
If you're wondering, we take all of our spreads from [Vegas Insider
](http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/matchups/)
SU and ATS picks are denoted by - crazily enough - an 'SU' or 'ATS' pick in the second column next to the appropriate team.
Thursday, Oct. 16, 2014
[New England
Patriots](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/NE)
SU
ATS
-9.5pts
Starting with a loss always sucks, and I wish I'd followed my gut on this one, which told me that 9.5pts was a silly spread between these two teams. In the end I was convinced as much by the propensity of TNF games to become blowouts as much as anything.
[New York
Jets](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/NYJ)
Sunday, Oct. 19, 2014
Baltimore
Ravens
SU
I like the Falcons to cover here, despite the probability that the Ravens win. Atlanta, for all of their problems, are still a good offence waiting to happen. and they're a very up-and-down team. 40% of ATS experts are backing the Falcons, with many of them in the key '53%+' bracket.
Atlanta
Falcons
+6.5
ATS
Buffalo
Bills
SU
ATS
-5.5
Buffalo have been marginally improved, but this says much more about the defective Minnesota offence than anything else. The Vikings have racked up 10 or less points a staggering 4 times this season. Imagine how poor they have to be to keep that up? Teddy Bridgewater looked like a lost young boy amongst men against the Lions, and the Bills pass rush has been good this year. This could be ugly.
Minnesota
Vikings
Chicago
Bears
-3
ATS
SU
This is one where I have to fight my Bears fan gut. I've not been as accurate as last year with Chicago, and that means you have to take a step back and play the safe option. Don't try to overthink these games, or they end up getting more complicated than they need to be. I worry about this Bears D more than ever, but the Dolphins just don't seem right and travel poorly. Chicago is 91% favorite straight up, 69% favorite ATS.
Miami
Dolphins
Detroit
Lions
Hardest pick of the week? Statistically speaking, it's this matchup, the only one of the 15 this week to fall under 70% in consensus straight up picks. Those 66% who agree are picking the Lions, but we've gone with New Orleans, particularly now Jimmy Graham is back. The Lions are flaky on offence and really made hard work of beating an impotent Vikings team last week. They also screwed up against the Bills at home, and the Saints will be less forgiving...
New Orleans
Saints
SU
ATS
+1.5
Green Bay
Packers
SU
If only this spread was -7, as it was when it opened. As you can imagine, people were all over those points, and I still fancy the Panthers to get close. The Packers should win though.
Carolina
Panthers
ATS
+6
Cincinnati
Bengals
The Colts are one of our underrated teams this year and can't seem to catch much love despite clearly having a dominant offence and a well-rounded team. I think -3 is a nice spread for a home favorite like Indianapolis with a high powered offence and a mobile QB like Andrew Luck, who is moving into the upper echelon of QB's. Meanwhile, the wheels are slowly coming off the Bengals, who were overrated early in the season and even hit no.1 in some power rankings.
Indianapolis
Colts
SU
ATS
-3
[Jacksonville
Jaguars](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/JAC)
I think a lot of guys (42%) and gals are picking the Jags to cover because they figure well, they've got to win sometime. Well, this just in: They don't. The Browns are my pet team. I love them like I love all perennial underdogs with no hope, but this year I want them to just experience the thrill of a playoff game. I backed the Steelers last week agianst my gut, this week I'm all over the Brian Hoyer train.
[Cleveland
Browns](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/CLE)
SU
ATS
-5
[Seattle
Seahawks](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/SEA)
SU
ATS
-6.5
Percy Harvin? I don't really care. This is the type of team that is built on chemistry, not talented assholes who put themselves first. The Rams looked competitive last week, but a bad call just utterly ruined them, and lets face it, they are liable to get plenty of momentum deflating moments in this matchup...
[St. Louis
Rams](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/STL)
[Washington
Redskins](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/WAS)
Oh whatttttt +5 against Washington at home? The Redskins have been solidly poor for a few weeks now, and the Kirk Cousins era is at a merciful end. I'm in the process of trying to hunt down the worst artcile I ever read in week 3, where someone suggested that while the Eagles may have won that game, the Redskins had the QB of the future. Who is paying people for this analysis? I promise we will never hire someone to write that type of bullshit for this site. They're giving the internet a bad name. Meanwhile, Charlie Whitehurst just continues to confound all scientific studies that call him a bad player, so you just hve to shrug and roll with him, as I'm sure Whisenhunt is doing right now.
[Tennessee
Titans](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/TEN)
SU
ATS
+5
[San Diego
Chargers](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/SD)
SU
ATS
-3
What a nice game for bettors, as the spread moved in from -6 early on. The Chiefs are over-valued on the road and the Chargers are under-valued at home in the QUALCOMM FOOTBALLING ARENA. I still have a man-crush on Eddie Royal, but my affection for Phil Rivers is tempered by the knowledge that apparently he doesn't swear?! Have you ever seen him angry? I can only imagine he was calling those Broncos fans in '07 'a bunch of fupping backstards'
[Kansas City
Chiefs](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/KC)
[Dallas
Cowboys](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/DAL)
Sometimes, you have to fly in the face of all logic. I'm torn because I'm headed to New York with Mrs Pickwatch in December for the Giants Eagles game, and I've worked out that if they mess up in the next 3 weeks, they then have an easy-ish run in that could make that game meaningful. meanwhile I could be buying tickets next week for nothing. Ka-ching! Except that I think the Cowboys are wayyyy way overrated and the Giants don't match up that badly against them defensively. Basically this is a no lose proposition for me on a personal level, because I'm making paper either way, homey.
[New York
Giants](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/NYG)
SU
ATS
+4.5
[Arizona
Cardinals](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/ARI)
SU
ATS
-3.5
Very happy to get a -3.5 for the Cards, who are one of those fluky teams that just tends to get little plays like the pick 6 against the Redskins to cover easily. This is a very favorable matchup against a rookie QB who - despite his positive impression - still makes plenty of mistakes and poor decisions in terms of ball security, and I fancy this playmaking defence to score again today.
[Oakland
Raiders](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/OAK)
[Denver
Broncos](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/DEN)
SU
ATS
-6.5
Pick changed to Denver after I realised this week was pretty awful, and Patrick Willis was definitely out.
[San Francisco
49ers](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/SF)
Monday, Oct. 20, 2014
[Pittsburgh
Steelers](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/PIT)
Can't believe the Steelers are favorites here. They've been roundly atrocious for a few weeks now, and last week's beat down + J.J. Watt do not a good combo make. Also, is Watt the only defensive player right now with true 'game-changing' status? I think we all know the elephant in the room is that white people love Watt because he's, y'know, a white guy who dominates a position that is generally seen as the preserve of black players in recent years (sorry Patrick Kerney). It's a bit like how Peyton Hillis made it onto the cover of Madden by having hair that was simply impossible to cornrow...I get that, but this isn't just some kind of positive discrimination, the guy is actually worthy of all the hype, and every time I even doubt this man, he just totally crushes an opponent's face in and I have to re-assess how harsh I am on the mainstream media and their natural subconscious biases.Black, white, whatever. I don't care, Watt is deserving of every accolade he wins. And the Texans will beat the Steelers too.
[Houston
Texans](http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/HOU)
SU
ATS
+3
