Hello hello hello. It's been a busy start to the year at Pickwatch, especially behind the scenes.

We're in the process of trying to secure a small amount of funding that will give you something exponentially more beneficial to your weekly pick'em and ATS/betting experience than what we currently have. I know many of you come for the experts, but I know many of you also stay for the chance to see more in-depth stats. We are expanding our platform in a way we have never done so before to give you a PERSONALIZED pick'em experience and...

I've said too much!

Seriously, I will be elaborating on all of this once we have the resources to roll it out. The nuts and bolts are tested, but as you probably know, we have now millions of yearly users on Pickwatch and we have to be ready for the idea that all of you will want a piece of this. In the meantime, the best advice I can give you? Make your picks with us! Make them honestly, copy your picks from your pools, and when we go live with all of this, you will see something you have never seen before, and it'll improve your pick'em scores because you made your picks this week. Promise.

*ANYWAY. Enough on all that. Upset watch? What's all that about? *

Glad you asked actually, because I'm going to ramble on about it at some length. Upset watch is somewhat unsurprisingly my attempt to rank the weekly NFL schedule by the chances of an upset.

That's pretty much it. I don't know what else you were expecting.

I'll be listing the games below, and it also serves as a convenient preview of the week ahead, thus saving me the time of writing an article I have never written and had zero intention of doing so. What a bonus! Each week I'll rank the games at the start of the week based on what I think are the propensity of a STRAIGHT UP WIN for the underdog. I may mention the spread occasionally but if I'm picking the underdog to win a game, you can be reasonably sure I think they'll cover the spread, as it would be literally impossible for them not to...

Week 5

1. Buffalo (+3) @ Cincinnati

Right, let's start with the reality here: Cinci are not that good, and the Bills are massively underrated. They're giving up just 13.5pts a game, including two tougher road matchups than this against Atlanta last week and the Panthers in week 2 (which look, let's not go there, but they actually only scored 3pts in). I am not saying the Bills are infallible, but I think they can win this game and seem to have found a groove running the ball. Meanwhile the Bengals seem unable to move the ball as well as you'd hope for an offense that has 3 starting caliber running backs, arguably the game's best current wide receiver (AJ Green) and at QB... well... ok fair point, yeah, maybe Andy Dalton actually is the problem now that you mention it... I don't think he's going to enjoy playing the Bills on Sunday.

2. Tennessee @ Miami (+3)

This line might move so I'm loath to put this near the top. The Dolphins haven't been great, but the Titans without Marcus Mariota is a horrendous proposition. The Titans WITH Brandon Weeden is like something out of a Stephen King novel (synopsis: football players start going down with minor injuries and Weeden drifts from team to team murdering their playoff hopes), so if the Titans are still favored by kick-off (and there's a strong possibility they won't be) then this would be my second strongest upset of the week. Cutler and Gase is just one of those things which as a Bears fan I saw click too many times to pretend they can't churn out the odd 350yd/3TD performance this season when you get complacent and think they're a load of old sh...

3. Green Bay (+2) @ Dallas

I get the skepticism over the Packers on the road and all that jazz, but this feels like a winnable game. There's no need to over-analyze why the Packers, one of the better teams in football, are more than capable of 'upsetting' the Cowboys, a game in which they would be favored by around 3-4pts if it was being played at Lambeau. The only concern is that they don't seem to have a running back. I mean literally, I have no idea if Aaron Jones doesn't play what happens after that. I just got a call from Mike McCarthy asking if Halpin or Katzowitz can suit up...

4. Jacksonville (+8.5) @ Pittsburgh

Ok this one is where we start getting into dubious territory. I haven't liked the Steelers much this season but they started hitting a minor offensive roll last week behind Le'veon Bell which I think has papered over some fairly major cracks. Any team should be able to handle the Ravens, so I'm not reading anything into that just yet. Meanwhile, we still don't actually know who or what the Jags are because they do silly things like lose to the Jets. They're definitely better than last season though. And the 9 seasons before that. Sadly that isn't a joke, I'm referring to 2008 and David Garrard, the last time they were good. Still, this has the makings of one of those games where Ben Roethlisberger can't get anything going and everyone says 'oh look how solid the Jags D is' afterwards.

5. Tampa Bay (+5.5) @ New England

I think I like the Bucs a little bit here. If I trusted Jameis Winston more not to do something mental like fumble the ball 60yds backwards I'd feel a lot safer saying they'd at least cover. The Pats are honestly not very good on defense, so on a short week with less prep time, I think there's a reasonably good chance the Bucs come out and get a 3 score+ victory by default. Did I just say that? I think I did. The situation feels right for a crisis next week when the first questions about whether the Pats make the playoffs begin.

6. Seattle (+1.5) @ Los Angeles Rams

This one loses points for being a bit of an obvious potential 'upset'. I'd suspect this line will come in a little, maybe even a PK by kick-off, and that seems about right in reality. They're pretty closely matched and I don't think either is the unstoppable defense (Seattle) or unstartable offense (LA) of years gone by. On balance I'd take the Seahawks, but is it time to say these aren't your slightly older brother's Rams yet? And not just because that version of the Rams was 2,000 miles away in St. Louis either, but because they are quite competent at playing football?

7. San Francisco @ Indianapolis (-1.5)

You've got to just keep this in mind here, this is usually going to the point where I think an upset is much less likely. Also, it's a tight week for spreads, with 10 games within +3 in terms of expected points difference. I actually think the shock of this game is more likely that the Colts win by a bigger margin than a field goal. Or that both teams score touchdowns. That would actually be a major story considering the way they've limped into 2017.

8. Baltimore @ Oakland (-2.5)

I really don't think now is the time to be tipping the Ravens for any major upsets. I think they have a shot because Oakland is pretty poor running the ball (the Marshawn Lynch experiment has been one of those embarrassing things that hasn't worked out, but everyone is too awkward to admit the mistake) and they don't have their starting QB in Derek Carr, but man... the Ravens are hapless and seem worse than at any point in the John Harbaugh era. Best chance is they get the ball to Jeremy Maclin early and often, but I actually can't think of a worse game to watch on Sunday...

9. New York Jets (PK) @ Cleveland

...I stand corrected.

In all seriousness, I like the Jets here, I'm just knocking it down our upset ladder because it's a pick'em. If the Browns end up favored (and Vegas suggests they won't) then I'm taking the Jets near the top of this list. Plus try to imagine all of our dreams coming true and the Bills and Jets sitting atop the AFC East for the first time in what feels like ages (but was probably about 2010) while the Pats languish in 3rd place... or even last. Right, I've got to stop there, we're getting ahead of ourselves.

10. Minnesota (-3) @Chicago

You have to do this for a new QB because there's always a chance they come out and do something great. I'm a Bears fan and I couldn't honestly tell you if Big Mitch Trubisky is going to be anywhere near good. Or even how big he really is. He could be 5'5" for all we know. Preseason? Great, Pat Rice and Matt Leinart could give it half a go against players who - with all due respect - are now unemployed specifically because they weren't able to do enough in preseason. Still, the Vikes were anemic against the Lions last week and have lost Dalvin Cook. I actually think that'll help them as I like Jerick McKinnon a lot as a pass-catching back and I think he'll bail Case Keenum out with lots of dump-off passes if he starts instead of Sam Bradford. Still, I can't bring myself to back the Bears right now, I think the Vikings will win. ON THE ROAD.

11. Arizona @ Philadelphia (-6.5)

This doesn't feel like a good spot for the Cardinals. The Eagles look better than most, and the Cards had to basically be stretchered to a default participation victory against the Niners last week. In real terms, they got a nice badge that said 'well done for taking part' and then about 6 hours later one of their parents got a call from Roger Goodell saying they'd been forced to award SOMEONE the victory and so there you go.

12. Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants (-3.5)

I don't like either of these two teams at the moment, but if the Chargers didn't like playing on the road at home, then they sure as hell won't enjoy going on the road to play on the road. I like OBJ and the Giants have had periods of optimism in some of their games. The Chargers just feel like they're slowly choking Philip Rivers's career away like the dog in I am Legend. Don't struggle Phil, it just makes it harder for everyone watching.

13. Kansas City (-1.5) @ Houston

The Texans are better than many teams and with Marcus Mariota's injury, might even now be favorites for the AFC South again. I just can't pick someone to upset the Chiefs at the minute. Kareem Hunt is great, Tyreek Hill is a ridiculous human, Travis Kelce is Gronk-lite but actually not made of glass. Alex Smith looks as comfortable as ever in Andy Reid's offense... all of it is clicking. Despite some serious fantasy football implications for me on Monday night, I was interested that Reid kept Hunt fresh for the 4th quarter, where he proceeded to run roughshod over the 'skins. The Chiefs are the best team in the league right now. No need to really over-analyze it much further than we have.

14. Carolina @ Detroit (-3.5)

As this is the first week of upset watch(tm) this is absolutely nailed on to be a Panthers win. HOWEVER I really think the Panthers aren't that great this season on any level. They beat a Pats team that has a defense with it's own traffic flow system to ease the flow of offenses trying to efficiently move from one end of the field to their end zone. Apart from that, Carolina have shown almost nothing all season, lucking out with a win over the Bills in that aforementioned 3-9 barn-burner. Meanwhile, the Lions are a ridiculous ending vs Atlanta away from being 4-0, which has quietly flown under the radar. I would take the Panthers vs the spread if it was +6, but I think this could be another big blowout loss for Carolina.

Send hate mail below, it gets me through the week. ESPECIALLY about the pen pic, which I was forced to take.