Line: CLE -2
Difficulty Ranking:
Expert straight up consensus: CLE 56%
Expert ATS consensus: PIT 58%
Top 10 overall consensus: PIT 90%
Pickwatch straight up pick: Pittsburgh
Pickwatch ATS pick: Pittsburgh
On paper this looks like a difficult game to pick, because I’m high on Brian Hoyer and the Browns. Not in the Adrian Peterson sense, of course, although fondness for the Browns is liable to induce hard drug use.
But before we allow hearts to rule heads, here’s something to ponder: When 56% of experts predict a Cleveland win, that’s compelling. When only 1 of our top 10 experts predicts it, and 90% are picking Pittsburgh? Well, just like in week 1 - where in a coin-flip game between the Ravens and Bengals, all of the ‘top’ experts picked Cinci – we are going with quality over quantity.
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Line: NE -3.5
Difficulty Ranking:
Expert straight up consensus: NE 77%
Expert ATS consensus: NE 67%
Top 10 overall consensus: NE 90%
Pickwatch straight up pick: NE
Pickwatch ATS pick: NE
There’s been plenty of talk about whether these two teams have turned the corner this week. The likelihood is that actually, neither were as bad as advertised heading into week 5, and their victories were not representative of a defining moment or turnaround in fortunes.
Last week I decried the Pats’ consistent use of Danny Amendola in a system designed for two TE’s. I’d actually mentioned Tim Wright in private on an NFL forum, because it seemed baffling to trade away Logan Mankins for a player who is so similar to Aaron Hernandez, and then not use him. I believe Wright is exactly… perfect… for the Pats on offence.
Meanwhile the Bills are clearly a better team than they were over the last few years, with Sammy Watkins the clear difference-maker. I don’t see that translating into a victory, but I could definitely imagine a secondary playing as poorly as New England’s could struggle to contain him.
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Line: TEN -4 (was -7)
Difficulty Ranking:
Expert straight up consensus: TEN 75%
Expert ATS consensus: JAX 67%
Top 10 overall consensus: TEN 80%
Pickwatch straight up pick: JAX
Pickwatch ATS pick: JAX
OH GOD I’M PICKING JACKSONVILLE.
Listen, for every piddle-poor team in the NFL, there’s a moment in the season where they either accept defeat as a matter of course, or they fight back and attempt to rally to like… 3-13 by seasons end. THIS IS THE JAGS’ MOMENT! THIS IS ONE OF THEIR THREE!
The biggest factor here is clearly Jake Locker. If he plays – and finishes – I would of course be backing the Titans. In reality, it’s hard to trust a guy injured as often as Locker over the last 3 years to come in and not get hurt, and the sad fact of NFL life is that yeah, we make some of our picks based on the health of key players.
I said it on twitter too, but the Titans putting Charlie Whitehurst in on 4th and 1 and asking him, through sheer force of will to push that ball a single yard, was one of the worst decisions in history. Whitehurst has all the get-up-and-go of Hedonism Bot from Futurama.
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Line: GB -3.5
Difficulty Ranking:
Expert straight up consensus: GB 90%
Expert ATS consensus: GB 71%
Top 10 overall consensus: GB 100%
Pickwatch straight up pick: GB
Pickwatch ATS pick: GB
With a spread this low, I think you go with the guys who have a high powered offence that can make mincemeat of the Dolphins’ D. The Dolphins themselves are temptingly underrated, but they really haven’t managed to play effective football since week 1, unless you count the Raiders game – which we don’t.
Look, it’s a small sample, but the Dolphins haven’t shown enough to be contenders against a Green Bay side coming off a long week of preparation.
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Line: Doesn’t Matter
Difficulty Ranking: Doesn’t Matter
Expert straight up consensus: Doesn’t Matter
Expert ATS consensus: Doesn’t Matter
Top 10 overall consensus: Seriously… it DOESN’T MATTER AT ALL.
Pickwatch straight up pick: DEN
Pickwatch ATS pick: DEN
Denver will win, Geno will be benched if he throws more than 1 interception OR completes less than 50% of his passes in the first half. Somehow, Rex Ryan may cling to his job for another week.
Some guys in Orange also play in this game, but realistically, you could substitute them for any team and they’d beat the Jets, who in my eyes are comfortably the worst team in the league based on talent, coaching and team spirit.
Last week the Jets had objectively one of the worst performances I’ve seen in the last 15 years watching football. That is all you need to know.
Carolina @ Cincinnati
Line: CIN -6.5
Difficulty Ranking:
Expert straight up consensus: CIN 93%
Expert ATS consensus: CIN 53%
Top 10 overall consensus: CIN 100% (ATS Push)
Pickwatch straight up pick: CIN
Pickwatch ATS pick: CAR
No way are the Bengals worth a 6.5 point advantage over the Panthers. Carolina stepped up to the plate against the Bears, and this week they have a chance of an upset in Cinci. I believe Andy Dalton and the Bengals will prevail, but it could be tight…
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Line: MIN -2
Difficulty Ranking:
Expert straight up consensus: DET 62%
Expert ATS consensus: DET 70%
Top 10 overall consensus: Push
Pickwatch straight up pick: MIN
Pickwatch ATS pick: MIN
We’ve been on this one all week and had Minnesota at +2.5 earlier. Since Calvin Johnson will likely not play – and even if he does, he probably won’t be effective – the Vikings are now favorites.
Lets put this one down to that most-hated of betting terms: ‘intangibles’. I think Teddy Bridgewater has them, and I think they’ll be enough to inspire his team to victory. The Vikings had better hope so, because without him last week they were appalling.
Incidentally, I don’t believe the Vikes figure to be much worse off without Adrian Peterson at the moment. Their backfield by committee is forcing them to consider a more well-rounded approach on offence, as opposed to relying on a ‘workhorse’ style back who will – ultimate cliché – carry the load.
Carrying the load is really not what any modern NFL teams should be striving for. That applies equally to on and off field perspectives. Not onlyw as their offence imbalanced, but the Vikes are effectively the last team left with a tailback eating franchise money. In reality, Minnesota could and should have saved half of that money by paying 2-3 guys to do a version of the same job.
They probably just didn’t see him being such an asshole while pocketing that type of dough. Good sex parties though.
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Line: BAL -3.5
Difficulty Ranking:
Expert straight up consensus: BAL 86%
Expert ATS consensus: BAL 70%
Top 10 overall consensus: BAL 80%
Pickwatch straight up pick: BAL
Pickwatch ATS pick: BAL
The Bucs are improved, but the Ravens play their best football as favorites. This is one of those matchups that is far closer than the spread suggests. We’re tempted by the Bucs, but they have proved incredibly inconsistent thus far, so we can’t. Sorry Bucs.
