It's Thursday, and in 2013's crazy NFL world, that actually means football. More precisely, it means Phil Rivers, wildman, loudmouth and father of SEVEN will take on Peyton Manning and the Broncos, who I feel don't really get the primetime exposure they deserve. Ahem.
Anyway lets forget that the Broncos seem to be as ubiquitous as uncomfortable erectile dysfunction ads these days, and focus on the good stuff. Like... Oh I don't know, that we get to see two teams who both need to win on TNF for once? The Broncos will be mindful that New England are one game back and have a tie-breaker over them for home field advantage, while the Chargers are locked in that Jabroni-fest that is the AFC wild card race.
All that aside, here's our 'Best Pick Index' breakdown of how the NFL experts are picking tonight's game.**The index takes the home and road records of each expert in every matchup and calculates who has the best record overall, before then allowing you to easily see who has picked each team.**
Please note - this table will change in accordance with any expert picks that come in after it is posted. Please allow time for this page to be updated.
San Diego @ Denver (8:25pm ET, NFL Network)
**Matchup Difficulty: 62% **(the higher the score, the better the experts' success rate when picking these two teams. An 'average' matchup would be 62%)
Consensus: **Denver 100%**
Top 5 Overall: **Denver 100%**
For completion's sake, I'll include a table showing who is picking who in this matchup. For obvious reasons - and I don't want to give too much away here - there is little point in telling you who is good and bad. The Chargers are very difficult to pick on the road (32%) on average which makes tonight actually slightly more interesting than you'd imagine. Anyone not backing the Broncos in Denver and against a 28th ranked Chargers D is insane.
Incidentally, this week I was disappointed to read Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk continue to go all in on the Manning 'cold weather' half-truth that has been en vogue in the last few weeks. In this article Florio gives the impression that we can make a categorical analysis of Manning's ability in the cold based on his 3-7 record in the past. Now, I'm all for stats, and I'm all for a win and loss record as a good gauge of anything, but something doesn't feel right on this one.
So, a quick delve back in the NFL archives reveals that Manning wasn't necessarily at fault in a few of those losses. Here's three that I would say show that whatever the problem was, it wasn't Peyton:
1: Green Bay, November 19th 2000
Manning throws for 3 straight 4th quarter TD's, only to lose when Allen Rossum returns a kickoff (hint to Mike: These occur after someone scores) for a touchdown. Considering that Manning outplayed Brett Favre - who lets face it, had a slight advantage in that he played in the cold all of the time -it's churlish to simply denounce his ability in the cold on the basis of this game
2: Baltimore, January 12th 2013
Boom. Like Marty McFly, we're back to the future. or the present. Actually... it's the recent past but whatever. It was a good joke and I'm standing by it.
Anyway we all know the script in this one. Ravens and Broncos go back and forth all game, end up in DOUBLE OT where Peyton is picked and Flacco torches Rahim Moore etc etc. The thing is, was Manning that bad? I watched the game again and he was pretty good, showed everything you'd expect of a hall of famer... I don't get it. Sure he threw two picks, but in a game that goes to DOUBLE OVERTIME you'd expect anyone to have the odd miscue.
No, what got the Broncos beat was primarily poor defence, coupled with the utterly baffling decision not to try and even attempt to get in field goal range with 30 seconds left on the clock. I repeat: Your defence is so poor that you've given up 4 TD's and nearly 500yds on the day - don't put your faith in the flip of a coin.
People can debate this one all they like, but blaming Manning or saying that the cold made him throw the ball into coverage in OT? That's something that rhymes with Hull-split.
3: New England, November 24th 2013
Again, we go back to a game we all remember well. Was Manning at fault here? The way I see it, the Broncos jumped out to a 24pt lead early and settled into a running rhythm that had New England struggling for much of the first half. You can focus on Manning's low statistical output, or you can put them into that context and maybe look at Knowshon Moreno's 224 (two hundred and twenty four...) yards on the ground.
You don't need to be a P.I. to work out that Denver were not the only team struggling in the conditions, indeed they lost on a punt return that bounced up and hit Tony Carter, allowing the Patriots a gimme field goal. If Manning had marched them 80 yards up the field - as he did to tie it in the 4th quarter - would we be talking about how poorly he plays in cold weather? Knowing the NFL media, we wouldn't.
I'm not a Manning fanboy or any kind of Denver fan, but I know when people are trying to make something stick because they want to dictate the flow of journalism and commentary. I don't like to be cynical (I do) but Manning came out and blew out the Titans pretty handily in the cold, yet clearly someone felt the need to continue sticking the boot in. That makes no sense for me, particularly given that there are myriad other reasons for the Broncos and Colts losing games in the cold weather over the years. My gut tells me that for many people, the Playoff losses in 04-05 still define Peyton's big-game legacy, and he will need another Championship to finally silence the doubters.
One day the critics will look back and be thankful we all got to watch him play in this special era, but as we say to the God of Death? Not Today.
Anyway. Rant over. That table you were after? Oh yeah, everyone - reliable or not - picks the Broncos. Unlucky Phil. On the plus side, Keenan Allen is the real deal though?
San Diego
Denver
Rank
Expert
Affiliation
Road %
Home %
Overall:
Pick
1
Chris Hansen
Bleacher Report
57.14%
100.00%
78.6%
DEN
2
Prediction Machine
CBS
57.14%
100.00%
78.6%
DEN
3
Joel Beall
FOX
57.14%
100.00%
78.6%
DEN
4
John Halpin
FOX
57.14%
100.00%
78.6%
DEN
5
Chris Wesseling
NFL
57.14%
100.00%
78.6%
DEN
6
Khaled Elsayed
ProFootballFocus
57.14%
100.00%
78.6%
DEN
7
Nathan Jahnke
ProFootballFocus
57.14%
100.00%
78.6%
DEN
8
Black Tie
NFL
57.14%
100.00%
78.6%
DEN
9
Tom Pelissero
USA Today
57.14%
100.00%
78.6%
No Pick
10
Ty Schalter
Bleacher Report
42.86%
100.00%
71.4%
DEN
11
Pete Prisco
CBS
42.86%
100.00%
71.4%
DEN
12
Adam Schefter
ESPN
42.86%
100.00%
71.4%
DEN
13
K.C. Joyner
ESPN
42.86%
100.00%
71.4%
DEN
14
Mark Schlereth
ESPN
42.86%
100.00%
71.4%
DEN
15
Seth Wickersham
ESPN
42.86%
100.00%
71.4%
DEN
16
Dan Hanzus
NFL
42.86%
100.00%
71.4%
DEN
17
Dave Damashek
NFL
42.86%
100.00%
71.4%
DEN
18
Henry Hodgson
NFL
42.86%
100.00%
71.4%
DEN
19
Michael Irvin
NFL
42.86%
100.00%
71.4%
No Pick
20
Steve Mariucci
NFL
42.86%
100.00%
71.4%
No Pick
21
Neil Hornsby
ProFootballFocus
42.86%
100.00%
71.4%
DEN
22
Sam Monson
ProFootballFocus
42.86%
100.00%
71.4%
DEN
23
Nate Davis
USA Today
42.86%
100.00%
71.4%
No Pick
24
Accuscore
Accuscore
42.86%
100.00%
71.4%
DEN
25
Brad Gagnon
Bleacher Report
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
26
Erik Frenz
Bleacher Report
42.86%
85.71%
64.3%
DEN
27
Knox Bardeen
Bleacher Report
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
28
Matt Bowen
Bleacher Report
42.86%
85.71%
64.3%
DEN
29
Tyson Langland
Bleacher Report
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
30
Jamey Eisenberg
CBS
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
31
John Breech
CBS
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
32
Josh Katzowitz
CBS
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
33
Chris Mortensen
ESPN
42.86%
85.71%
64.3%
DEN
34
Cris Carter
ESPN
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
35
Mike Ditka
ESPN
42.86%
85.71%
64.3%
DEN
36
Tom Jackson
ESPN
42.86%
85.71%
64.3%
DEN
37
Ryan Fowler
FOX
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
No Pick
38
Whatifsports
FOX
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
39
Adam Rank
NFL
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
40
Michael Fabiano
NFL
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
41
Elliot Harrison
NFL
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
No Pick
42
Marc Sessler
NFL
42.86%
85.71%
64.3%
DEN
43
Matt Smith
NFL
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
44
Michael Silver
NFL
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
45
Rich Eisen
NFL
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
46
Warren Sapp
NFL
42.86%
85.71%
64.3%
No Pick
47
Michael David Smith
PFT
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
48
Ben Stockwell
ProFootballFocus
42.86%
85.71%
64.3%
DEN
49
Steve Palazzolo
ProFootballFocus
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
50
Frank Schwab
Yahoo
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
51
Les Carpenter
Yahoo
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
No Pick
52
Don Banks
Sports Illustrated
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
DEN
53
Jim Corbett
USA Today
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
No Pick
54
Pete O'Brien
USA Today
28.57%
100.00%
64.3%
No Pick
55
Andrea Hangst
Bleacher Report
28.57%
85.71%
57.1%
DEN
56
Michael Schottey
Bleacher Report
42.86%
71.43%
57.1%
DEN
57
Mike Freeman
Bleacher Report
28.57%
85.71%
57.1%
DEN
58
Zach Kruse
Bleacher Report
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
DEN
59
Dave Richard
CBS
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
DEN
60
Ryan Wilson
CBS
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
DEN
61
Eric Allen
ESPN
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
DEN
62
Merill Hoge
ESPN
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
DEN
63
Mike Golic
ESPN
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
DEN
64
Pick ‘em
ESPN
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
DEN
65
Ron Jaworski
ESPN
28.57%
85.71%
57.1%
DEN
66
Adam Meyer
FOX
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
DEN
67
Chris Brockman
NFL
28.57%
85.71%
57.1%
DEN
68
Gregg Rosenthal
NFL
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
DEN
69
Heath Evans
NFL
28.57%
85.71%
57.1%
DEN
70
Kevin Patra
NFL
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
DEN
71
Kurt Warner
NFL
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
No Pick
72
Marshall Faulk
NFL
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
No Pick
73
NFL FAN PICKS
NFL
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
DEN
74
Sterling Sharpe
NFL
28.57%
85.71%
57.1%
DEN
75
Steve Wyche
NFL
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
DEN
76
Coin Toss
None
71.43%
42.86%
57.1%
DEN
77
Mike Florio
PFT
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
DEN
78
Pickwatch
Pickwatch
28.57%
85.71%
57.1%
DEN
79
Gordon McGuinness
ProFootballFocus
28.57%
85.71%
57.1%
DEN
80
Yahoo Users
Yahoo
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
DEN
81
Vinnie Iyer
Sporting News
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
DEN
82
Jarrett Bell
USA Today
28.57%
85.71%
57.1%
No Pick
83
Lindsay H. Jones
USA Today
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
No Pick
84
Simon Samano
USA Today
14.29%
100.00%
57.1%
No Pick
85
Matt Miller
Bleacher Report
14.29%
85.71%
50.0%
DEN
86
Will Brinson
CBS
28.57%
71.43%
50.0%
DEN
87
Keyshawn Johnson
ESPN
28.57%
71.43%
50.0%
DEN
88
Melissa Stark
NFL
28.57%
71.43%
50.0%
DEN
89
Rick Drummond
ProFootballFocus
14.29%
85.71%
50.0%
DEN
90
Jason La Canfora
CBS
14.29%
71.43%
42.9%
DEN
91
Brian Baldinger
NFL
14.29%
71.43%
42.9%
No Pick
92
Chris Law
NFL
14.29%
71.43%
42.9%
No Pick
93
Shaun O'Hara
NFL
14.29%
71.43%
42.9%
DEN
For more updates from Pickwatch, follow us on twitter or Facebook. We'll be back on Saturday with more previews of week 15's matchups, helping you to decide who to trust in this week's biggest games. Missing picks will be updated... well, they'll be updated when the picks are actually made!
Shaun
