Usually we like to do individual previews of each game, however this week sees more than a few lopsided matchups. There is little point in a full preview when the experts are unanimously in favor of one team, so here's a brief rundown of the 8 games this week that have 90%+ agreement from experts.
*Philadelphia *@ Minnesota
Expert Consensus 100%
With AP out and Toby Gerhart questionable (likely out), it's entirely possible the Vikings may be down to Matt Asiata at RB this week. That's not good when you're facing a high-scoring team such as Philly. Key here is that the Eagles like to dictate the flow of the game, and if the Vikings are unable to slow that down by keeping the Ealges offence on the sidelines, they could well be in serious trouble, as could Leslie Frazier.
New York Jets @ Carolina
Expert Consensus 100%
I love the Carolina D, but it hasn't really been a 'big play' defence in the way that Pittsburgh, Chicago and Baltimore were for a long stretch. They're extremely efficient and rank 2nd in yards allowed, but they rarely take the opportunity to put points on the board themselves. For example, they have two defensive TD's this season, both on INT returns, but they have only 11 forced fumbles all year (T18th) and . They average only 11 yards per interception. To put that into context, the Bears average 25 yards per runback and have double the number of TD's.
If the Panthers D can't make hay against the Geno Smith Interception Experience, they probably never will this season.
*Seattle *@ New York Giants
Expert Consensus 100%
That deathly silence you can (or can't) hear represents the humiliation of new York's football clubs in the year that they host the Super Bowl. It could get a lot worse, given the opponents of the Jets and Giants this week. Don't be surprised if this one ends up being historically bad for Big Blue. There's really very little to say on this one, because if you pick the Giants, you must have a vested interest in them winning. There's absolutely no objective reason to think anything other than a heavy Seattle win.
Kansas City @ Oakland
Expert Consensus 99%
The Chiefs are favored by all except Chris Hansen, a devout Raider-phile (not in a bad way) who has decided to plump for Matt McGloin and Terrelle Pryor and whoever else turns up to play at QB for Oakland today. How does Hansen's close affinity with the Black and Silver translate into expert success? Well, he picks them at just 50% at home, so let's not assume this one is the benefit of insider info. Chris made a point of this one on Twitter (where we suggest you follow him as he is good for a Raiders chat), so there's no going back now...
New Orleans@ St Louis
Expert Consensus 98%
The Saints are massively backed to win this uneven game, and rightly so. Some people believe New Orleans play badly on the road, but I think it is more pertinent that they play badly in the open air, where all three of their losses this year have come (Seattle, New York, New England). Coming into a dome with very little crowd enthusiasm - the Rams home crowd have had all the atmosphere of a particularly reticent chess audience this year - will suit Drew Brees and his talented receivers. I particularly like Kenny Stills to have a big game this week, as he has developed into a big target for Brees and Colston's big game last week could well prompt the Rams to overlook the speedy Stills.
Washington @ Atlanta
Expert Consensus 91%
Meanwhile in Washington... what can you say? Kirk Cousins is actually a decent backup and I like him to score a rushing TD today, but the chances of a big upset are pretty slim. His one start last year was against the Browns, but they were QB'd by the human assault-on-all-that-is-sacred-about-football Brandon Weeden. Seriously, the guy's a walking disaster. I bet he fu,bles the mayonnaise at home. Anyway, the point is that Cousins has such a terribly small sample size and Atlanta have a game manager/actual good human QB. I'm rooting for Kirk on a personal level, but I think the Falcons are looking forward to this one.
Also - I like that Tony Gonzalez has seemingly been overlooked because he's playing on a losing team. I think he'll tear the Redskins secondary apart today. So do our experts, including this small sample of the best experts when picking these two teams below:
Washington
Atlanta
Expert
Affiliation
Road %
Home %
Overall
Pick
Matt Miller
Bleacher Report
83.33%
83.33%
83.3%
ATL
Prediction Machine
CBS
83.33%
83.33%
83.3%
ATL
Will Brinson
CBS
83.33%
83.33%
83.3%
ATL
Ron Jaworski
ESPN
83.33%
83.33%
83.3%
ATL
Brian Baldinger
NFL
83.33%
83.33%
83.3%
No Pick
Gregg Rosenthal
NFL
83.33%
83.33%
83.3%
ATL
Henry Hodgson
NFL
83.33%
83.33%
83.3%
ATL
Kurt Warner
NFL
83.33%
83.33%
83.3%
ATL
Melissa Stark
NFL
83.33%
83.33%
83.3%
ATL
NFL FAN PICKS
NFL
83.33%
83.33%
83.3%
ATL
Ben Stockwell
ProFootballFocus
83.33%
83.33%
83.3%
ATL
Steve Palazzolo
ProFootballFocus
83.33%
83.33%
83.3%
ATL
Vinnie Iyer
Sporting News
83.33%
83.33%
83.3%
ATL
Pretty conclusive stuff. Come on baldy, sort your act out son. Don't make me watch a full episode of Playbook - none of you deserve it given how shoddy your overall performance has been this year.
San Francisco @ Tampa Bay
Expert Consensus: 96%
aaaand finally. Yeah this one has a bit of a strange feeling to it. I've left it until last because I genuinely believe the Bucs have a slight chance of winning this one, albeit a pretty tiny one that relies entirely on game momentum. The Bucs have a good defence and a really genuinely solid guy at QB in Mike Glennon who doesn't make many mistakes, but I fancy that the way the 49ers will edge this comes from their ability to exploit holes with their big playmakers, Crabtree, Davis and Gore. The Bucs really can't take those guys away enough to stop Kaepernick exploiting them, and even if they do, I like that Kap has his running game tucked away and uses it at opportune moments, even if his stats are low.
Don't make the mistake of assuming that the 49ers aren't a good team because of those numbers. They can do more than they have shown and the experts agree. These two teams are particularly easy to pick in this scenario (78% success rate for experts so far in 2013 picking the 49ers on the road and Bucs at home) and I don't anticipate an upset here. Albeit with the caveat that if there is one, Ty Schalter of Bleacher Report will look pretty smart...
San Francisco
Tampa Bay
Rank
Expert
Affiliation
Road %
Home %
Overall
Pick
1
Chris Brockman
NFL
100.00%
100.00%
100.0%
SFO
2
Black Tie
NFL
100.00%
100.00%
100.0%
SFO
3
Matt Bowen
Bleacher Report
100.00%
85.71%
92.9%
SFO
4
Ty Schalter
Bleacher Report
100.00%
85.71%
92.9%
TBB
5
Tyson Langland
Bleacher Report
100.00%
85.71%
92.9%
SFO
6
Zach Kruse
Bleacher Report
100.00%
85.71%
92.9%
SFO
7
John Breech
CBS
100.00%
85.71%
92.9%
SFO
8
Rich Eisen
NFL
100.00%
85.71%
92.9%
SFO
9
Steve Mariucci
NFL
100.00%
85.71%
92.9%
SFO
10
Pickwatch
Pickwatch
100.00%
85.71%
92.9%
SFO
11
Jim Corbett
USA Today
100.00%
85.71%
92.9%
SFO
That's it for the previews (for now). The two prime time games get their own previews, which will be available later today. For now, you can follow us on twitter throughout the week and also on Facebook now, which is nice. Any questions either leave a comment or - drop us an email, tweet or smoke signal. We'll try to answer any queries as best we can.
