Tonight's Monday Night Football matchup is one of a series of MNF games in the final weeks of the 2013 season that will decide the NFC Playoff picture. The Cowboys and Bears are both trying to stay in contention for the lead in their respective divisions, which makes tonight A) interesting and B) difficult to pick. **
With that in mind, here's our 'Best Pick Index' breakdown of how the NFL experts are picking tonight's game.The index takes the home and road records of each expert in every matchup and calculates who has the best record overall, before then allowing you to easily see who has picked each team.**
Dallas @ Chicago (8:40pm ET, ESPN)
**Matchup Difficulty: 64% **(the higher the score, the better the experts' success rate when picking these two teams. An 'average' matchup would be 62%)
Consensus: **Dallas 69%**
Top 5 Overall: **Dallas 80%**
First of all, it's certainly worth bearing in mind that the consensus pick has been correct 13/15 times this week, indeed week 14 has so far roundly failed to produce any notable upsets despite some close run games that had looked like blowouts on paper. My theory is that while some teams thrive on the pressure of meaningful football, many teams and coaches begin to get conservative at this time of year and prevent mistakes at the expense of trying to play their natural games.
This game sees two cataclysmically bad defences try to out-stupid each other in the quest to make two extremely fallible offences look really good. Insanely, the worst run defence (Chicago) and the worst pass defence (Dallas) face off at Soldier Field tonight, and it just so happens that both teams may be in a position to exploit those vulnerabilities. I am wary, however of the Cowboys overall defensive inability when combined with Alshon Jeffery's breakout, Brandon Marshall's matchup conundrum and Matt Forte's ability to exploit running room and catch the ball out of the backfield.
A lot of people have pointed to DeMarco Murray's utilisation in the last few weeks as a reason to suggest that the Bears D will be overmatched, however it is worth noting that the Cowboys have not bothered having a 100yd rusher since week 3, and that Murray - while getting on the scoresheet - has rarely dictated the pace of games as Forte does for the Bears.
Anyway that's my opinion, so what of the experts and their picks? Well, first of all the top 5 are in favor of Dallas, but our Best Pick Index reveals a far more even split amongst the better pickers. I also think there is something in the fact that it is statistically harder to pick a Cowboys road game(56% accurate) than the Bears at home (70%). By that reckoning, you'd give the edge to Frank Schwab of Yahoo, who has picked the Bears. indeed if you picked using the top 5, the Bears would still be favorites amongst the top ranked experts in this matchup.
Dallas
Chicago
Rank
Expert
Affiliation
Road %
Home %
Overall
Pick
1
Chris Hansen
Bleacher Report
83.33%
100.00%
91.7%
CHI
2
Merill Hoge
ESPN
83.33%
100.00%
91.7%
DAL
3
Frank Schwab
Yahoo
100.00%
83.33%
91.7%
CHI
4
Ty Schalter
Bleacher Report
83.33%
83.33%
83.3%
CHI
5
Nate Davis
USA Today
83.33%
83.33%
83.3%
DAL
6
Pete O'Brien
USA Today
83.33%
83.33%
83.3%
DAL
7
Adam Meyer
FOX
66.67%
100.00%
83.3%
DAL
8
NFL FAN PICKS
NFL
66.67%
100.00%
83.3%
DAL
9
Adam Rank
NFL
60.00%
100.00%
80.0%
CHI
10
Zach Kruse
Bleacher Report
83.33%
66.67%
75.0%
DAL
11
Prediction Machine
CBS
66.67%
83.33%
75.0%
CHI
12
Chris Mortensen
ESPN
83.33%
66.67%
75.0%
DAL
13
Mark Schlereth
ESPN
66.67%
83.33%
75.0%
DAL
14
Pick ‘em
ESPN
50.00%
100.00%
75.0%
DAL
15
Chris Law
NFL
66.67%
83.33%
75.0%
DAL
16
Chris Wesseling
NFL
66.67%
83.33%
75.0%
DAL
17
Dave Damashek
NFL
66.67%
83.33%
75.0%
DAL
18
Gregg Rosenthal
NFL
83.33%
66.67%
75.0%
DAL
19
Heath Evans
NFL
50.00%
100.00%
75.0%
DAL
20
Kurt Warner
NFL
50.00%
100.00%
75.0%
DAL
21
Marshall Faulk
NFL
66.67%
83.33%
75.0%
No Pick
22
Steve Mariucci
NFL
66.67%
83.33%
75.0%
CHI
23
Pickwatch
Pickwatch
50.00%
100.00%
75.0%
CHI
24
Ben Stockwell
ProFootballFocus
66.67%
83.33%
75.0%
DAL
25
Rick Drummond
ProFootballFocus
66.67%
83.33%
75.0%
CHI
26
Yahoo Users
Yahoo
50.00%
100.00%
75.0%
DAL
27
Simon Samano
USA Today
83.33%
66.67%
75.0%
DAL
28
Andrea Hangst
Bleacher Report
50.00%
83.33%
66.7%
CHI
29
Ryan Wilson
CBS
50.00%
83.33%
66.7%
DAL
30
Brian Baldinger
NFL
50.00%
83.33%
66.7%
DAL
31
Kevin Patra
NFL
50.00%
83.33%
66.7%
DAL
32
Steve Wyche
NFL
83.33%
50.00%
66.7%
DAL
33
Michael David Smith
PFT
50.00%
83.33%
66.7%
CHI
34
Neil Hornsby
ProFootballFocus
50.00%
83.33%
66.7%
CHI
35
Jarrett Bell
USA Today
83.33%
50.00%
66.7%
DAL
36
Tom Pelissero
USA Today
50.00%
83.33%
66.7%
CHI
37
Matt Miller
Bleacher Report
66.67%
66.67%
66.7%
DAL
38
Josh Katzowitz
CBS
66.67%
66.67%
66.7%
DAL
39
K.C. Joyner
ESPN
33.33%
100.00%
66.7%
DAL
40
Mike Ditka
ESPN
66.67%
66.67%
66.7%
CHI
41
Joel Beall
FOX
66.67%
66.67%
66.7%
DAL
42
John Halpin
FOX
66.67%
66.67%
66.7%
DAL
43
Ryan Fowler
FOX
33.33%
100.00%
66.7%
DAL
44
Whatifsports
FOX
66.67%
66.67%
66.7%
DAL
45
Michael Fabiano
NFL
66.67%
66.67%
66.7%
CHI
46
Mike Florio
PFT
66.67%
66.67%
66.7%
DAL
47
Jim Corbett
USA Today
66.67%
66.67%
66.7%
DAL
48
Accuscore
Accuscore
66.67%
66.67%
66.7%
CHI
49
Tyson Langland
Bleacher Report
33.33%
83.33%
58.3%
CHI
50
Dan Hanzus
NFL
33.33%
83.33%
58.3%
DAL
51
Michael Schottey
Bleacher Report
66.67%
50.00%
58.3%
DAL
52
Jason La Canfora
CBS
50.00%
66.67%
58.3%
DAL
53
John Breech
CBS
50.00%
66.67%
58.3%
CHI
54
Adam Schefter
ESPN
50.00%
66.67%
58.3%
DAL
55
Cris Carter
ESPN
50.00%
66.67%
58.3%
DAL
56
Seth Wickersham
ESPN
66.67%
50.00%
58.3%
DAL
57
Tom Jackson
ESPN
50.00%
66.67%
58.3%
DAL
58
Chris Brockman
NFL
50.00%
66.67%
58.3%
DAL
59
Marc Sessler
NFL
50.00%
66.67%
58.3%
CHI
60
Matt Smith
NFL
66.67%
50.00%
58.3%
CHI
61
Melissa Stark
NFL
50.00%
66.67%
58.3%
DAL
62
Warren Sapp
NFL
50.00%
66.67%
58.3%
DAL
63
Khaled Elsayed
ProFootballFocus
50.00%
66.67%
58.3%
DAL
64
Nathan Jahnke
ProFootballFocus
66.67%
50.00%
58.3%
CHI
65
Sam Monson
ProFootballFocus
66.67%
50.00%
58.3%
CHI
66
Steve Palazzolo
ProFootballFocus
66.67%
50.00%
58.3%
DAL
67
Les Carpenter
Yahoo
50.00%
66.67%
58.3%
No Pick
68
Black Tie
NFL
66.67%
50.00%
58.3%
CHI
69
Don Banks
Sports Illustrated
50.00%
66.67%
58.3%
CHI
70
Lindsay H. Jones
USA Today
50.00%
66.67%
58.3%
DAL
71
Brad Gagnon
Bleacher Report
50.00%
50.00%
50.0%
DAL
72
Erik Frenz
Bleacher Report
33.33%
66.67%
50.0%
DAL
73
Knox Bardeen
Bleacher Report
50.00%
50.00%
50.0%
CHI
74
Matt Bowen
Bleacher Report
50.00%
50.00%
50.0%
DAL
75
Mike Freeman
Bleacher Report
33.33%
66.67%
50.0%
DAL
76
Dave Richard
CBS
50.00%
50.00%
50.0%
DAL
77
Will Brinson
CBS
50.00%
50.00%
50.0%
DAL
78
Eric Allen
ESPN
33.33%
66.67%
50.0%
DAL
79
Keyshawn Johnson
ESPN
50.00%
50.00%
50.0%
CHI
80
Mike Golic
ESPN
33.33%
66.67%
50.0%
DAL
81
Ron Jaworski
ESPN
66.67%
33.33%
50.0%
DAL
82
Henry Hodgson
NFL
33.33%
66.67%
50.0%
DAL
83
Michael Irvin
NFL
33.33%
66.67%
50.0%
DAL
84
Michael Silver
NFL
50.00%
50.00%
50.0%
CHI
85
Rich Eisen
NFL
50.00%
50.00%
50.0%
CHI
86
Shaun O'Hara
NFL
33.33%
66.67%
50.0%
DAL
87
Vinnie Iyer
Sporting News
33.33%
66.67%
50.0%
CHI
88
Jamey Eisenberg
CBS
33.33%
50.00%
41.7%
DAL
89
Pete Prisco
CBS
33.33%
50.00%
41.7%
DAL
90
Sterling Sharpe
NFL
33.33%
50.00%
41.7%
DAL
91
Gordon McGuinness
ProFootballFocus
33.33%
50.00%
41.7%
CHI
92
Elliot Harrison
NFL
0.00%
66.67%
33.3%
DAL
93
Coin Toss
None
33.33%
33.33%
33.3%
DAL
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