Tonight's Monday Night Football matchup is one of a series of MNF games in the final weeks of the 2013 season that will decide the NFC Playoff picture. The Cowboys and Bears are both trying to stay in contention for the lead in their respective divisions, which makes tonight A) interesting and B) difficult to pick. **
With that in mind, here's our 'Best Pick Index' breakdown of how the NFL experts are picking tonight's game.
The index takes the home and road records of each expert in every matchup and calculates who has the best record overall, before then allowing you to easily see who has picked each team.**

Dallas @ Chicago (8:40pm ET, ESPN)

**Matchup Difficulty: 64% **(the higher the score, the better the experts' success rate when picking these two teams. An 'average' matchup would be 62%)

Consensus: **Dallas 69%**

Top 5 Overall: **Dallas 80%**
First of all, it's certainly worth bearing in mind that the consensus pick has been correct 13/15 times this week, indeed week 14 has so far roundly failed to produce any notable upsets despite some close run games that had looked like blowouts on paper. My theory is that while some teams thrive on the pressure of meaningful football, many teams and coaches begin to get conservative at this time of year and prevent mistakes at the expense of trying to play their natural games.

This game sees two cataclysmically bad defences try to out-stupid each other in the quest to make two extremely fallible offences look really good. Insanely, the worst run defence (Chicago) and the worst pass defence (Dallas) face off at Soldier Field tonight, and it just so happens that both teams may be in a position to exploit those vulnerabilities. I am wary, however of the Cowboys overall defensive inability when combined with Alshon Jeffery's breakout, Brandon Marshall's matchup conundrum and Matt Forte's ability to exploit running room and catch the ball out of the backfield.

A lot of people have pointed to DeMarco Murray's utilisation in the last few weeks as a reason to suggest that the Bears D will be overmatched, however it is worth noting that the Cowboys have not bothered having a 100yd rusher since week 3, and that Murray - while getting on the scoresheet - has rarely dictated the pace of games as Forte does for the Bears.

Anyway that's my opinion, so what of the experts and their picks? Well, first of all the top 5 are in favor of Dallas, but our Best Pick Index reveals a far more even split amongst the better pickers. I also think there is something in the fact that it is statistically harder to pick a Cowboys road game(56% accurate) than the Bears at home (70%). By that reckoning, you'd give the edge to Frank Schwab of Yahoo, who has picked the Bears. indeed if you picked using the top 5, the Bears would still be favorites amongst the top ranked experts in this matchup.

Dallas

Chicago

Rank

Expert

Affiliation

Road %

Home %

Overall

Pick

1

Chris Hansen

Bleacher Report

83.33%

100.00%

91.7%

CHI

2

Merill Hoge

ESPN

83.33%

100.00%

91.7%

DAL

3

Frank Schwab

Yahoo

100.00%

83.33%

91.7%

CHI

4

Ty Schalter

Bleacher Report

83.33%

83.33%

83.3%

CHI

5

Nate Davis

USA Today

83.33%

83.33%

83.3%

DAL

6

Pete O'Brien

USA Today

83.33%

83.33%

83.3%

DAL

7

Adam Meyer

FOX

66.67%

100.00%

83.3%

DAL

8

NFL FAN PICKS

NFL

66.67%

100.00%

83.3%

DAL

9

Adam Rank

NFL

60.00%

100.00%

80.0%

CHI

10

Zach Kruse

Bleacher Report

83.33%

66.67%

75.0%

DAL

11

Prediction Machine

CBS

66.67%

83.33%

75.0%

CHI

12

Chris Mortensen

ESPN

83.33%

66.67%

75.0%

DAL

13

Mark Schlereth

ESPN

66.67%

83.33%

75.0%

DAL

14

Pick ‘em

ESPN

50.00%

100.00%

75.0%

DAL

15

Chris Law

NFL

66.67%

83.33%

75.0%

DAL

16

Chris Wesseling

NFL

66.67%

83.33%

75.0%

DAL

17

Dave Damashek

NFL

66.67%

83.33%

75.0%

DAL

18

Gregg Rosenthal

NFL

83.33%

66.67%

75.0%

DAL

19

Heath Evans

NFL

50.00%

100.00%

75.0%

DAL

20

Kurt Warner

NFL

50.00%

100.00%

75.0%

DAL

21

Marshall Faulk

NFL

66.67%

83.33%

75.0%

No Pick

22

Steve Mariucci

NFL

66.67%

83.33%

75.0%

CHI

23

Pickwatch

Pickwatch

50.00%

100.00%

75.0%

CHI

24

Ben Stockwell

ProFootballFocus

66.67%

83.33%

75.0%

DAL

25

Rick Drummond

ProFootballFocus

66.67%

83.33%

75.0%

CHI

26

Yahoo Users

Yahoo

50.00%

100.00%

75.0%

DAL

27

Simon Samano

USA Today

83.33%

66.67%

75.0%

DAL

28

Andrea Hangst

Bleacher Report

50.00%

83.33%

66.7%

CHI

29

Ryan Wilson

CBS

50.00%

83.33%

66.7%

DAL

30

Brian Baldinger

NFL

50.00%

83.33%

66.7%

DAL

31

Kevin Patra

NFL

50.00%

83.33%

66.7%

DAL

32

Steve Wyche

NFL

83.33%

50.00%

66.7%

DAL

33

Michael David Smith

PFT

50.00%

83.33%

66.7%

CHI

34

Neil Hornsby

ProFootballFocus

50.00%

83.33%

66.7%

CHI

35

Jarrett Bell

USA Today

83.33%

50.00%

66.7%

DAL

36

Tom Pelissero

USA Today

50.00%

83.33%

66.7%

CHI

37

Matt Miller

Bleacher Report

66.67%

66.67%

66.7%

DAL

38

Josh Katzowitz

CBS

66.67%

66.67%

66.7%

DAL

39

K.C. Joyner

ESPN

33.33%

100.00%

66.7%

DAL

40

Mike Ditka

ESPN

66.67%

66.67%

66.7%

CHI

41

Joel Beall

FOX

66.67%

66.67%

66.7%

DAL

42

John Halpin

FOX

66.67%

66.67%

66.7%

DAL

43

Ryan Fowler

FOX

33.33%

100.00%

66.7%

DAL

44

Whatifsports

FOX

66.67%

66.67%

66.7%

DAL

45

Michael Fabiano

NFL

66.67%

66.67%

66.7%

CHI

46

Mike Florio

PFT

66.67%

66.67%

66.7%

DAL

47

Jim Corbett

USA Today

66.67%

66.67%

66.7%

DAL

48

Accuscore

Accuscore

66.67%

66.67%

66.7%

CHI

49

Tyson Langland

Bleacher Report

33.33%

83.33%

58.3%

CHI

50

Dan Hanzus

NFL

33.33%

83.33%

58.3%

DAL

51

Michael Schottey

Bleacher Report

66.67%

50.00%

58.3%

DAL

52

Jason La Canfora

CBS

50.00%

66.67%

58.3%

DAL

53

John Breech

CBS

50.00%

66.67%

58.3%

CHI

54

Adam Schefter

ESPN

50.00%

66.67%

58.3%

DAL

55

Cris Carter

ESPN

50.00%

66.67%

58.3%

DAL

56

Seth Wickersham

ESPN

66.67%

50.00%

58.3%

DAL

57

Tom Jackson

ESPN

50.00%

66.67%

58.3%

DAL

58

Chris Brockman

NFL

50.00%

66.67%

58.3%

DAL

59

Marc Sessler

NFL

50.00%

66.67%

58.3%

CHI

60

Matt Smith

NFL

66.67%

50.00%

58.3%

CHI

61

Melissa Stark

NFL

50.00%

66.67%

58.3%

DAL

62

Warren Sapp

NFL

50.00%

66.67%

58.3%

DAL

63

Khaled Elsayed

ProFootballFocus

50.00%

66.67%

58.3%

DAL

64

Nathan Jahnke

ProFootballFocus

66.67%

50.00%

58.3%

CHI

65

Sam Monson

ProFootballFocus

66.67%

50.00%

58.3%

CHI

66

Steve Palazzolo

ProFootballFocus

66.67%

50.00%

58.3%

DAL

67

Les Carpenter

Yahoo

50.00%

66.67%

58.3%

No Pick

68

Black Tie

NFL

66.67%

50.00%

58.3%

CHI

69

Don Banks

Sports Illustrated

50.00%

66.67%

58.3%

CHI

70

Lindsay H. Jones

USA Today

50.00%

66.67%

58.3%

DAL

71

Brad Gagnon

Bleacher Report

50.00%

50.00%

50.0%

DAL

72

Erik Frenz

Bleacher Report

33.33%

66.67%

50.0%

DAL

73

Knox Bardeen

Bleacher Report

50.00%

50.00%

50.0%

CHI

74

Matt Bowen

Bleacher Report

50.00%

50.00%

50.0%

DAL

75

Mike Freeman

Bleacher Report

33.33%

66.67%

50.0%

DAL

76

Dave Richard

CBS

50.00%

50.00%

50.0%

DAL

77

Will Brinson

CBS

50.00%

50.00%

50.0%

DAL

78

Eric Allen

ESPN

33.33%

66.67%

50.0%

DAL

79

Keyshawn Johnson

ESPN

50.00%

50.00%

50.0%

CHI

80

Mike Golic

ESPN

33.33%

66.67%

50.0%

DAL

81

Ron Jaworski

ESPN

66.67%

33.33%

50.0%

DAL

82

Henry Hodgson

NFL

33.33%

66.67%

50.0%

DAL

83

Michael Irvin

NFL

33.33%

66.67%

50.0%

DAL

84

Michael Silver

NFL

50.00%

50.00%

50.0%

CHI

85

Rich Eisen

NFL

50.00%

50.00%

50.0%

CHI

86

Shaun O'Hara

NFL

33.33%

66.67%

50.0%

DAL

87

Vinnie Iyer

Sporting News

33.33%

66.67%

50.0%

CHI

88

Jamey Eisenberg

CBS

33.33%

50.00%

41.7%

DAL

89

Pete Prisco

CBS

33.33%

50.00%

41.7%

DAL

90

Sterling Sharpe

NFL

33.33%

50.00%

41.7%

DAL

91

Gordon McGuinness

ProFootballFocus

33.33%

50.00%

41.7%

CHI

92

Elliot Harrison

NFL

0.00%

66.67%

33.3%

DAL

93

Coin Toss

None

33.33%

33.33%

33.3%

DAL

For more updates from Pickwatch, follow us on twitter or Facebook. We'll be back throughout the afternoon with more previews of week 14's matchups, helping you to decide who to trust in this week's biggest games.