Week 12 already... who knew?
With this week being a short week in terms of pick'em, we're not going to do our usual roundup of last week's action, however we will touch on a couple of subjects as part of this, our preview of the 3 Thursday night games this week.

lions-thanksgiving

Thursday, 12:30pm
(4-6) Philadelphia @ Detroit (3-7) (Pick'em)

This is a terrible game to pick, because the last few weeks have really messed up the Eagles. Mark Sanchez had a Mark Sanchez of a game last week against the Bucs, who objectively aren't great, while the D (who one idiot actually played in fantasy - an idiot not worrying playoffs in either of his leagues this year) became a sieve and allowed Jameis Winston (definitely not a rapist) to shred them.

Then there's the Lions, who've managed to turn over the Packers and the Raiders in consecutive weeks as underdogs. The only thing is they've actually done it without playing well either week, or certainly without scoring many points.

In fact, the Lions have managed more than 20 points on only two occasions this season, in week 1 at the Chargers and in week 5 vs the Bears. That's a pretty terrible pedigree for a team midseason who have managed to get to 3 wins.

Now here's the next rub - the Eagles have also not managed over 20 points with Mark Sanchez at QB this season, after managing 20+ in all but one of his 9 outings at the end of 2014. He should start on Thursday (although Sam Bradford is not ruled out) and that limits how much we can expect from the Eagles offense, particularly with Ryan Matthews out too.

This is tough. With Bradford and Matthews in I'd take the Eagles, but if we're looking at a low scoring game, who do you trust more? Probably the Lions, who have won all of their 3 games this year by small margins. They're on a 2 game win streak and the Eagles look devoid of confidence, despite potentially being the better team and having a great deal more to play for.

The Pick: Lions

ATS Pick: Lions (PK)

panthers cowboys

Thursday, 4:30pm
(10-0) Carolina @ Dallas (3-7) (Panthers -1)

First up, I have talked a lot about Greg Hardy on twitter this year, because he's a complete imbecile who should make us all pretty ashamed to cheer on a sport that pays him handsomely after what he has - empirically - done.

But the thing that really gets me is Jerry Jones. The man is one of those horrible people in life, the kind who see only profit in tragedy, who discuss wars and famines in the context of their shares in arms and food companies. Rest assured, if Jerry Jones thought he could make more money, he'd take the Cowboys straight out of 'Dallas' and haul them to London.

Of course he won't, because that wouldn't be a good business decision. Take Hardy - he knew he could lowball the guy and get a cheap year out of him at worst, with minimal risk should anything appear in the rear view mirror that made his status untenable - a Ray Rice-esque video for example. Hell, Jerry and Greg probably have their own QB power rankings based on hotness of wife. Think about that last sentence. If I said that about Bob Kraft, you'd think 'absolutely not'. Jerry? It's a joke, but let's not rule anything out...

Anyway, Hardy wasn't a risk, he was an investment that Jerry knew had the potential to double in value because of his personal circumstances. The same happened (unfairly) to La'el Collins when he was wrongly linked to a murder prior to the draft. Jerry offered him a contract at a guy's lowest ebb, knowing that in a worst case scenario, he had an expensive UDFA on his hands, and someone who would never seriously hurt the salary cap over the next 4 years. Best case? They get a first round lineman at UDFA price.

Which is savvy business. Jerry is not a gambler any more, he only gets into situations he can back out of with minimum financial loss, picking up guys when they don't have many options and making them feel special - even though that comes with a 50% off price tag. Pretty apt that I'm writing this in the week before Black Friday...

So all I'm saying is that if Cleveland dump Johnny Manziel, Jerry will take him - but only for a minimum, heavily incentive-based contract that pays only if he becomes a starter. They'll need one when Tony's back/neck/shoulder/whatever finally gives way.

Speaking of which... I like the Cowboys on Thursday. The Panthers are really good, they have lots of momentum, but - and this is pure gut, from a guy whose guts have been Yobogoya'd this season - the Cowboys just seem to be set up to upset the Panthers at home, on Thanksgiving, with a strange -1 Panthers spread despite them being 10-0. I swear nothing would give me more pleasure than the Panthers winning by 50 points and shoving it in the face of two of the most detestable people associated with the NFL, but... nope. I don't pick the Cowboys often, but I like them this week.

The Pick: Dallas

ATS Pick: Dallas -1

Thursday, 8:30pm
(4-6) Chicago @ Green Bay (7-3) (Packers -9)

It says everything about the Bears that even playing far better than they did earlier in the year, and the Packers are playing worse than at any point in the last 12 months, Chicago are +9 point dogs at Lambeau.

The Bears will keep this competitive I think. The Packers are susceptible to a team that's able to move the ball offensively, but I think if they run themselves as they did last week, they'll hurt a pretty poor D. I mentioned it last week when picking Denver, but if you establish the run against the Bears, they just go to pieces.

If you want a good laugh, watch the Bears linebackers in the first 3 quarters of a game. They have no leadership, no direction and very little ability to diagnose the plays that are being run against them. They don't have a guy who is able to act as a conduit for the defensive scheme on the field, instead they're easily confused and end up all over the place.

I say this as a Bears fan, but defensively I expect the Packers to put up 30+ points and get back on track offensively. The only caveat is that I think Chicago can hurt the Packers D, so I'm taking the Packers to win and the Bears vs the spread. Over a TD? You've got to consider the dog...

The Pick: Green Bay

ATS Pick: Chicago +9

That's that - As it's Thanksgiving, we know it's an even shorter week than usual, so we'll be extra vigilant for picks this next couple of days. We have some big news coming regarding our mobile site development next week, and maybe more, but we'll have to wait until next Monday to confirm exactly what is happening on that front.

In the meantime, feel free to ridicule my picks in the comments below. You know I love it.