It's week 11 and here are your picks from our resident experts Arif Hasan and Mario Mergola. Last week was a nightmare for all concerned, not just for Mario and Arif. The average score was below .500 for the first time in a couple of seasons, in fact only two experts, Merril Hoge and Bart Scott, managed over that mark.

Can the experts improve this week? Well, we sure hope so... don't forget you can also find Mario's ATS picks right here.

Straight Up Picks
Arif Hasan

Arif

Arif Hasan has been writing about the Vikings and NFL for four years and has had his work in the LA Times, International Business Times, Forbes, MSN, Star Tribune, Bleacher Report, and various other outlets. You can find his work at the Daily Norseman or his podcast (Norse Code).

Mario Mergola

mario

Mario Mergola is a writer for XN Sports, featured on AOL Sports. He finished first in NFL Pickwatch's standings for picks against the spread throughout the regular season and playoffs in 2015, and he specializes in finding upsets and trap games. If you wish to view Mario's ATS picks, please click here

Matchup
The Pick
The Verdict
The Pick
The Verdict

TEN vs JAX

JAX

Seems like better coaching wins more often on Thursday night than any other time and though I like Mularkey I think this tests him too much too soon. Add in Jacksonville's growing offense and homefield advantage, I'll give them the nod.

JAX

Of all the teams likely to emerge as the winner of the weakest division in football, the Jaguars, at least, have the offensive firepower to keep them in every game. If Jacksonville wants to keep the dream alive, a home win against the 2-7 Titans is a must.

OAK vs DET

OAK

A close game against the Packers isn't enough to convince me the Lions have finally found quality. The Raiders are better than their record, however, and a down game against a top defense should mean much when heading to a porous one in Detroit.

DET

The natural inclination is that the Lions that did the impossible - beat the Packers in Green Bay - will collapse in their encore. Perhaps, but not against a Raiders team still trying to figure out if it belongs in the AFC playoff picture. In addition, Oakland is horrible against the pass, and Lions have quite a few weapons at their disposal.

IND vs ATL

ATL

Hasselbeck was impressive when forced into action, but that feels unsustainable, especially as they take on a home team that, though inconsistent, shows quality along the offensive line and potential on the defensive line. Given Atlanta's superior defense, they should carry the advantage

ATL

Thanks for playing, Indianapolis. Returning from a bye week without Andrew Luck, the Colts are looking to do the impossible and keep winnng without their most important player. Atlanta, a formerly 6-1 team, also had two weeks to prepare for this showdown, and will look to feast on a dismal secondary while grabbing a much-needed home win.

NYJ vs HOU

NYJ

The Jets have shown throughout the season that they can be a competitive team, and while that seems to disappear from time to time, a rudderless Texas squad quarterbacked by TJ Yates doesn't feel like one of those times.

HOU

Whichever quarterback the Jets start - and use throughout the game - on Sunday, it won't be the same Ryan Fitzpatrick we have seen - returning from thumb surgery, he is almost guaranteed to be less than 100 percent. Houston has proven capable of holding down top-notch offenses, and should have no problem with one that lives and dies with the quarterback position. Especially, under the circumstances for this week.

TB vs PHI

PHI

Both teams may be 4-5, but the Eagles have done better against higher-quality opponents and have home field advantage to protect. The individual players in the Buccaneers defense have talent, but the Eagles have a more cohesive unit, and that may be the difference on Sunday.

PHI

Why isn't it possible that Mark Sanchez is actually the better fit for Chip Kelly's offense? Isn't he the same quarterback that led the Eagles to four wins in his first five games before going 1-3 to close the season? In addition, the Eagles were one bad pass away from possible improving to 5-4, making this matchup seem even more one-sided. The Eagles won't let the opportunity slip by, again.

DEN vs CHI

DEN

When in doubt, pick the trump card. The Denver defense is still an astounding unit despite consecutive losses. While it's easy to get suckered into an interesting storyline about Jay Cutler and his former team, the real question is whether or not Brock Osweiler can be less of a liability than Manning. It may be a shot in the dark, but at least for this week I think he can be.

DEN

In any other season, the dropoff between Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler would be enormous. Not in 2015. Instead, Manning's absence might not even be realized, whatsoever. Denver's defense still allows the fewest yards in the league, and should have no problem with a Bears offense suddenly playing over its head.

STL vs BAL

BAL

St. Louis generally deserves more credit than it receives, but at home with Case Keenum leading the way, I can see a surprisingly disappointing Ravens team take the win.

BAL

The Ravens were one impossible game-ending drive away from turning in back-to-back victories. Instead, the team suffered yet another heart-breaking defeat. To date, Baltimore has yet to lose a two-score game. They rebound against a Rams team incapable of exploiting the Ravens' non-existent pass defense.

DAL vs MIA

DAL

Maybe Romo won't be 100%. But odds are he'll be good enough to revive a team that looked like playoff contendors before his exit, especially with Dez in the mix. The Cowboys defense is stronger than public perception and the Miami offense's resurgence seemingly was short-lived.

DAL

Obviously, the return of Tony Romo will bring a renewed sense of confidence in the offense, but it actually isn't the passing game that will flourish. Miami is terrible against the run, and the ability to unleash a balanced attack gives the Cowboys' running game the support it requires to pull off the road win.

WAS vs CAR

CAR

The Carolina defense must be licking its chops and Cam Newton will probably be happy, too. Though the battle in the trenches may be closer in quality than many would believe, it still tilts in Carolina's favor.

CAR

The Panthers keep escaping the law of averages that suggests they will fail, eventually, but the Redskins - while a tough matchup - are not the ones to knock off Carolina. Washington's improved level of play should make the Panthers' task difficult, but Carolina is impenetrable via the passing game, preventing any possible Washington comeback.

KC vs SD

KC

Philip Rivers is playing a lot better than a lot of people may think, but the fact remains that Kansas City overall is a better team and shockingly is better on both sides of the line. Given who they have on defense, the Chiefs should pull this one out.

SD

In the classic 'divisional upset game,' the hot Chiefs are visiting the sinking Chargers. Does a team need any more motivation than ending its own skid while also stopping its opponent's winning streak? San Diego will have two weeks to prepare for the matchup, and actually has the fourth-best offense - in yards gained - in the league. The pieces are in place for an upset.

GB vs MIN

MIN

The teams are far closer in quality than it seems like was possible at the outset of the year, but with the advantage of playing at TCF Bank stadium and Aaron Rodgers' slump, the Vikings could take this one by virtue of their running game and stifling defense.

GB

Maybe the Vikings are ready to win the division. Maybe. More realistically, the consistent, dominant Packers are just in the middle of a random slump, and can erase a month's worth of sorrow with a road victory that would slide them back to the top of the NFC North.

SF vs SEA

SEA

Blaine Gabbert.

SEA

Week after week, Seattle continues to prove that it is in the middle of a 'down year.' There will, of course, be wins on the schedule, and a home game against the 49ers - and their 32nd ranked offense - is a great antidote for a recent loss.

CIN vs ARZ

ARI

This might be the best matchup of the night. The Cardinals at home will be able to showcase their explosive offense against the league's best scoring defense, all while the other side of the ball features top level units in their own right. Arizona has shown more features of consistent play through their defense, offensive and defensive lines and quarterback so they'll get the advantage.

CIN

In sixty minutes, the entire narrative of the Bengals' season changed. After proving for eight weeks that Cincinnati was not going to fall victim to the pressure, it lost a home primetime game to the Texans. In reality, this is no indication that the team is ready to collapse and, instead, should be a springboard for the back end of the team's schedule.

BUF vs NE

NE

I really want to pick the Bills because I really do have a lot of faith in Tyrod Taylor—and to some extent, Rex Ryan—but the Patriots are too good despite the loss of Julian Edelman. An underrated defense pairs well with an explosive offense and it should be enough to put away a Bills team that still has work to do to establish their identity.

BUF

While history may repeat itself, isn't it too soon to consider another perfect Patriots' regular season a foregone conclusion? Why is it so universally accepted? Teams don't go 16-0, let alone twice in a ten-year span. With that, a loss is almost guaranteed to occur, and a division game against a hot Bills team with almost two weeks to prepare - since Buffalo last played on a Thursday - is an issue for New England. In addition, the Patriots were exploited by the Giants in Week 10, and have only scored more than 30 points twice in their last six games after doing it twice in their first three.

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Season

91-55 62%

Season

86-60 58%