Ah the vagaries of the NFL. No sooner had we cracked the 'everything is completely random and any team can beat any other' code for 2017, than we have a solid week for favorites again.

Indeed, 5 of our users were even perfect on the week, while our friend Mike Clay of ESPN managed a 14-1 record at the top of the expert tree.

But how did week 7 change things for Upset Watch? Well, we nailed the Bears pick (obviously)

Week 7 Results:

Criteria

Units (5 unit stakes)

Top 5

-10.5

Top 5 + Bottom 5

-2

All

11

A mixed bag as you can see. The Jets implosion resulted in a push from what should have been an easy ATS win at least, but they all count, and despite my best efforts to forget watching the Jets and Dolphins attempt to play professional football, I am simply not allowed to discount it entirely.

In a big week for favorites, our picks of all the games will inevitably do best for ATS. Well I say 'inevitably' - the idea of the column is to rank the games by chance of an upset, so invariably, when the favorites are winning heavily, as they did in week 7, the bottom half of this column should fare pretty well.

Here's the season record for 2017 so far headed into week 8:

Criteria

Units (5 unit stakes)

Top 5

6

Top 5 + Bottom 5

-7.5

All

9

So a solid if unspectacular year so far, although quite clearly, we're winning more than we're losing. Another thing to add, is that if you're selecting based on the money line as opposed to the ATS line, upsets are potentially very lucrative, as the returns will often be far bigger on an individual game. You should realistically break even or even make a small profit if you get just two of the weekly upsets right each week...

On to week 8 we go!

1 - Carolina (+2) @ Tampa Bay

The Bucs showed signs of life in week 7, almost coming from behind to beat the Bills, but even the spread says that this could go either way, and a -2 home favorite is essentially an underdog if it were played at a neutral venue (which it isn't but just... shut up!).

Let's think more logically about the scenario the Panthers face. It's likely Luke Kuechly will play on Sunday, which is a massive part of their equation for winning football games. Look at them vs the Eagles two Thursdays ago - they held their own until almost the exact moment he went down with a concussion.

I don't love the Panthers by any stretch this year, but their previous two games were wins against the Lions and Patriots. as Cam Newton came off a week of dealing with a needless off-field distraction that stemmed from his inability to hold a normal press conference. Sound familiar? I think the big danger here would be if Kuechly doesn't play. If that happens, I worry Doug Martin will run riot over the Panthers, but that doesn't seem likely at this point.

2 - Miami (+3) @ Baltimore

The Fumble in the Jungle. That's what they should call this one.

Look, how can you hate two teams more than these two right now? Only a San Francisco @ Cleveland matchup would feel as bad as this in prime time, and yet neither team is quite in such a bad place in their division. The Dolphins are miraculously 4-2 and just a game behind New England, while the Ravens are 3-4 and two games behind the Steelers. Winning games like this is what helps wild card teams in December.

So the Ravens have failed to win or cover in 4 of their last 5 games, beating only the Carr-less Raiders on the road for a freebie win in week 5. That's not good. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are somewhere in the middle. They've won their last 3 games, and have come from two scores down to win in the last two. That's what I referenced last week in this column, the difference that belief makes. It also helps that they binned off Jay Cutler, a man they should arguably never have signed in the first place, and replaced him with Matt Moore, a guy who has been quietly forging a career as a substitute teacher in the Miami area over the last 7 years.

Moore is better than Cutler. Forget about Cutler's 'upside' or whatever we're calling the 3 games a year he gets his **** together. Moore can win football games. Right now, would you say he was worse than Joe Flacco? Look, the Ravens entire team needs to take responsibility for their poor play this season, but there's definitely a case to be made that Flacco is beginning to reach a critical point in his own career, and tonight might be a real acid test as to how the franchise moves on with or without him.

3 - Dallas @ Washington (+2)

The only thing that scares me with these games are the low spreads, but in this case, I think Washington has shown enough to warrant consideration. Their run defense was stouter than given credit for against the Eagles last week, giving up the biggest of their plays right at the end when victory was almost impossible and LeGarrette Blount was being continually handed the ball. Consider that the Eagles ran twice the number of rushing plays that the 'skins did, and you can see exactly what their problem was. They got behind and went 'full Kirk'.

Meanwhile do you trust the Cowboys? In your heart of hearts? I don't. They beat a bad 49ers team last week, and they lost their kicker. Ordinarily such things don't matter much to teams, but when the spread is this low, you have to factor in that the game could well be decided on missed field goals, and I am less enthusiastic about Mike Nugent than I am about Dan Bailey. Kicker chat eh? Who'd have thought it...

Interesting factoid for you - a lot of our computer simulations this week favor the Redskins over the Cowboys.

4 - Atlanta @ New York Jets (+4.5)

Here's where things get interesting. I don't love the Jets after two straight implosions, but I also don't love the Falcons after two straight implosions. Who will win? There's quite literally only one way to find out: Force them to play Football for 60 minutes, with both teams attempting to score in what we call the 'End Zone', but they call 'that place' and quietly shake their heads while muttering.

Which of these two teams has played better this season? The Jets. Why are they not favored? Because they are the Jets. The narrative at the start of this season was that the Jets are bad, and the Falcons are good. Neither of those things have been proved true, and by week 8, it's time to start considering where these two teams actually are. Is the Jets offense full of star names like Julio Jones or Matt Ryan? No. Are either of those two players actually playing that well? Also no.

Meanwhile the Jets have something about them. If they can hold it together just once, they're going to be right back in this thing. Like the Ravens, they're not quite out of the playoff hunt, in fact at 3-4, this win would make the AFC East the best in football even if the other three teams all lose. It's a competitive league, and the Jets are no worse than many teams who are favored against them, as the Falcons may find out on Sunday.

5 - Houston (+5.5) @ Seattle

Take the points here. The Seahawks are stuttering on offense, while the Texans are playing huge, huge football.

I really wanted to see the Seahawks make a statement last week, but it never felt like they clicked as much as the Giants just screwed up more. The Texans are a sterner test, and while they're missing a whole bunch of great defensive players (Dylan Cole, their star undrafted LB was the latest), they're a huge big play threat and can potentially get ahead, even if the Seahawks come back. Seattle are still among the best defenses in football, but if you want to talk about something that will be a potential season-defining moment for DeShaun Watson, it's surely going into Seattle and running the Seahawks close.

6 - LA Chargers (+7) @ New England

Where do we stand on the Chargers? Personally, I wasn't going to include this in the 'upsets', but the more I've thought about it, the more I'm becoming a believer in them. Their defense against the Patriots who have struggled to protect Tom Brady could be a nightmare for New England, and we all know the Patriots can't defend for... well, for money, as they are actually paid to defend.

I nearly moved this to the top of my picks this week when I sat down and wrote everything down, analyzed the spread and the history. Both teams are on a roll, but I am instead including this as a bonus 'top 6' upset this week, which will count towards the score next week for my top 5 picks. Confused? You should be. So am I...

The rest of this week's motley crew of games:

7 - Oakland @ Buffalo (-3) - I nearly took the Raiders here, but the west-east coast thing, coupled with the way the Bills played on both offense and defense last week just makes it a bridge too far for me.

8 - Denver @ Kansas City (-7.5) - Again I considered whether the points might be worth looking at here, but even 7.5 isn't enough right now. The Chiefs D is not invulnerable, but I do like them against Siemian and co.

9 - Chicago (+9) @ New Orleans - There is definitely potential here for an upset, but as a Bears fan, it'd need some fairly incredible play from the defense to balance out Mitch Trubisky (yeah I called you Mitch, Mitch!) and his 4 completions (out of 7 mind you...). Still, I think I'm taking the points here in case it's close and Brees keeps throwing needless INTs.

10 - Indianapolis @ Cincinnati (-10.5) - I just can't get behind the Colts the way they are. They've been badly coached for a couple of seasons now, needless clock management and play calling mistakes by Chuck Pagano should see him gone sooner rather than later, even with a deck stacked against him as it has been this year.

11 - Pittsburgh (-3) @ Detroit - The only reason this isn't lower is because the Browns and 49ers exist. If there's one thing I've learned over the years, it's when to take the L and admit you were wrong about a team. The Steelers are that team in 2017.

12 - San Francisco @ Philadelphia (-13) - Nope. Famous last words, but if C.J. Beathard is playing, I think they 49ers will get beat. Hard.

13 - Minnesota (-8) vs Cleveland (London) - I'm sick of the London games, so I'm glad this is the last of the season. Not sure who thought having the Browns play an international game was a good idea, but now that I think about it, maybe that's the best way to move a US team to become a London franchise after all. Just quietly get the Browns to play all their home games in London and see if anyone actually notices they left town.