Wait, we're not going with all one word? But I thought... so it's just 'Upset Watch' right? Not upsetwatch? Alright... whatever...

The season has been spectacularly erratic so far, for reasons I'll just dwell on for a second. A lot of people have become fixated on the idea that there are 'no good teams' in the NFL, but I disagree entirely. There are simply teams that have gotten better over the last year for the first time in so long (Jacksonville, Buffalo, New Orleans) and the traditional powerhouses have huge flaws, like the Patriots and Broncos.

I also think what is overlooked is that the media tipped a bunch of teams such as the Giants, Raiders and Bucs to be the teams that made the next leap forward into perennial playoff contention, and yet they've all fallen off. This plays on the minds of people who had based a large part of their preconception of the 2017 season on these narratives, only to find the Jags and Rams playing well instead.

Anyway, the point is that I think there are more teams than ever capable of beating each other, but somehow this has been construed as the quality being poor overall. I'd call it the opposite, that you have less utterly terrible teams than ever, and the narratives of who were meant to be good or bad have simply not adjusted to the actual events of 2017 yet.

Last week we had a pretty interesting time of it, getting a number of big upsets right but missing on our two best/worst suggestions for the second week in this column's storied two week history.

Week 6 Results:

Criteria

Units won/lost

Top 5

3.5

Top 5 + Bottom 5

-21.5

All

-22.5

That's the second week in a row that our top 5 picks have generated a profit, but the rest... well... as I said last week, anyone using Upset Watch for recreational purposes should remember that because of the nature of the column, it's designed to highlight the best chances of an upset. Once you get into using anything below the top 5-6 each week, I think it's a bit of a minefield, because of course some of them are likely to end up as upsets too. You just probably wouldn't expect FIVE of the bottom five to be upsets (from the bottom, the Dolphins, Giants, Steelers, Cards and Vikings all won).

So my advice so far is that if you follow the top 5 picks each week, you'd be doing better than following the whole column.

Season results:

Criteria

Units won/lost

Top 5

+16.5

Top 5 + Bottom 5

-9.5

All

-2

On with the show...

Week 7 Upset Watch

1 - Arizona (+3.5) @ Los Angeles Rams

This is where we're trying to avoid one of two things - either overrating the Rams, or overrating the Cards, based on week six upsets.

The first thing that jumps out at me is that the Rams have played streaky football, whereas the Cardinals have been bad, but seem to have turned a corner, scoring 38 points when their previous highest this season was just 17. Meanwhile the Rams are one of my favorite teams, but they've lost all three games in which they were favored this season so far. Such streaks are symptomatic of a team that is still finding it's mental consistency. I talk about this often in playoff time as regular readers will know, but there is a huge difference for teams who play with a chip on their shoulder (Carolina in 2015, or Atlanta last year) when they become favorites. Some can handle it, and so far, the Rams have not shown that they can.

Edit: It's a shame this game isn't taking place in the Coliseum, where Carson Palmer put 44 points on the Rams last year in his first return since playing at USC.

2 - Cincinnati (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh

Oh right, now Ben Roethlisberger 'has it'? I mean good god, we only spent the entire week before the Chiefs game being told he really doesn't have it at all, and that he's done.

Here's what you've got to remember about a team like the Steelers: They're streaky. They've been favored 5 times this season (weeks 1-5), and their record vs the spread? L-W-L-W-L. Then guess what happened last week against the Chiefs? They won. So what changed last week that made anyone seriously think the Steelers have become consistent? It's not Antonio Brown, who went into last week leading the league in receiving yards. Maybe it's Le'veon Bell finally coming good, but I think a more likely explanation is that nobody can handle that the Steelers have become beatable. People love certain teams and where there's an excuse to favor them, they will.

Cinci aren't a great team, but they took some big steps towards overcoming the loss of TE Tyler Eifert recently and seem to have worked out their RB dynamic (Mixon runs it, Bernard catches it on third down) pretty well. They've also covered the last three games in a row. Consider one of those games was on the road in Green Bay, and they had a shot to win, and you can see that this team is progressing well enough to have a good shot of at least covering a 5.5pt spread.

3 - Carolina @ Chicago (+3)

An interesting one, I am about as big on the Bears as can be expected, and you have to be careful not to get too high or low on teams based on their previous results, but Chicago are quietly building a team capable of winning exactly these types of games. They are playing a team expecting to win (Baltimore and Pittsburgh) who have bigger expectations for their season than just beating the Bears, and that was the undoing of their previous opponents too. They've covered the spread 4/6 times, albeit the two covers in losses were both 7 point lines.

But this is about asking whether we think an upset is possible, and it quite clearly is. The Panthers looked a completely different team without Luke Kuechly, so if he's out (and I really think they should not be sending a guy out there who has the same glazed look as a Kardashian when faced with... well, just the 'on button' for their TV really. It's not hard to confuse a Kardashian) then the Panthers are going to be terrible against the run. Jordon Howard is one of those weird backs who you can't actually say is good at one particular thing, but he doesn't wear down as quickly as the defenses he faces. I like that in this matchup. The only worry is that Cam starts hot again, and that the Bears under Mitchell Trubisky struggle to come from behind.

4 - New York Jets (+3) @ Miami

I'm not sure where I stand on this one. The two teams are ostensibly moving in opposite directions, but I've seen too much out of the Jets recently to write them off here. I've also seen enough of the Dolphins to know that 'Bad Jay' is very much still in play.

My biggest question mark here is how much the loss to New England last week hurt the Jets. They were up by two scores and in control. Conversely, the Dolphins came back from almost a mirror image situation, being down in Atlanta by the same margin. You wonder how much that hurts the mental strength of the Jets (I feel like we're in a parallel universe even saying that sentence...) and/or gives the Dolphins more encouragement that they can come from behind.

I still like the Jets though, even after last week. They still covered a big spread and in all honesty, were a bad call away from being in with a shot of the win.

5 - Denver (+1.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers

I have flip-flopped on this game and the next one as my fifth pick, but after writing both blurbs, I've come back to this one as the one I simply believe in more. The Broncos have a fundamentally sound team that simply imploded against a team they were expected to beat. I think they're better than a loss to the Giants, albeit not a top tier team like they were a few years ago. I also think it's too easy to fall into the 'these guys lost therefore they'll lose again' trap. In fact, the Broncos last 4 games have gone W-L-W-L, which - while a small sample size - is indicative of a team that you don't want to fall out of sync with when picking.

Every game the Chargers play seems like a complete slog from start to finish. They're always battling to be in the game at the end, rather than running away with anything. It just makes sense that this one won't be a big Chargers victory, which in turn means I think the worst shot the Broncos have is a chance to win at the end.

6 - Washington (+4.5) @ Philadelphia

There are a couple of dangerous games that I'm about to come to next that I want to be cautious on, but I think the Skins bear some consideration this week. They're very much an all-or-nothing type of team, and when it comes together, it works pretty well, as in the first half against San Francisco. The issue will of course be that the Eagles are ostensibly one of the top two teams in the league and playing exceptionally well. This one probably isn't my finest rationale, but in a MNF divisional game, I think there's a decent chance of an upset here.

7 - Kansas City @ Oakland (+3)

I really don't think this is a great spot for either team and I just wonder how much the Chiefs may lose without Charcandrick West as their third-down back this week. He always comes in for two-minute drills and any obvious passing scenario, so that's a pretty bad element of their gameplan for Alex Smith to lose. I'd also be worried about Kareem Hunt wearing down quicker and therefore not having much success in the second half of the game as he has largely done up until this point of the season.

So why so low on Oakland? Well, they've not really been that good have they? To state the obvious again. the Marshawn Lynch experiment has failed, and they need Derek Carr and Amari Cooper to play more like the cornerstone offensive pieces they are meant to be. I'm wary of the Raiders here.

The rest of these games are just going to be little one liners:

8 - Jacksonville (-3) @ Indianapolis - I just can't see the Colts finishing a game strong.

9 - San Francisco @ Dallas (-6) - Tempted to take the points? I'm not so sure C.J. Beathard will find it so easy with a week of defensive preparation on his skillset waiting for him.

10 - Baltimore @ Minnesota (-5.5) - Said it both of the last two weeks, but Case Keenum can play, and Jerick McKinnon is a QB's best friend

11 - Seattle (-5.5) @ New York Giants - A tempter, but I'm not buying the Giants just yet, and the Seahawks are coming along nicely. I smell a big blowout and more nasty questions for Ben McAdoo.

12 - Tampa Bay @ Buffalo (-3) - Not sure if Jameis or Fitzpatrick will play. Neither is a particularly great option against this Bills Defense.

13 - Atlanta @ New England (-3) - The Falcons seem to have become a bit shell-shocked by the last few weeks, and I am not 100% they are ready for the tiresome comeback narrative on Sunday just yet. Will be an interesting watch though, especially if they are up late...

14 - New Orleans (-5.5) @ Green Bay - Hundley Mania is here for the rest of the season, but it's not easy to see how he can put up enough points against the high-scoring Saints

15 - Tennessee (-6) @ Cleveland - I can't even look at the Browns objectively any more. Every week I discuss this with one of the experts on our site, and quite honestly, the idea that 'they have to win some time' is getting further away. I really think their front office is in real danger of being blown up, and then where are they? 15 years deep into a barren run that is all some of their fans have ever known. It used to be funny, it isn't now.

Alright, it's still funny sometimes.