Happy Thursday morning chaps and non-chaps.

First things first: Thanks for the great reception for Upset Watch. Apart from the main page and ATS picks, it's the highest rated column on Pickwatch over the last 6 weeks, which I appreciate. More than anything, it's nice to read that people enjoy the lighter tone, because I'm not particularly good at being serious...

Last week was another excellent one vs the spread for Upset Watch. I'm a big believer in strategy when it comes to ATS picks, and this is being borne out in our results so far, with the column a whopping +37.5 units vs the spread this year. I'll get into some of the reasons for that below, but what is good is that we're finding that not only are the top upsets regularly coming in (we have yet to have a week that hasn't had at least one of my top 5 upsets be proved right) but the non-upsets are also regularly working in our favor.

Last week's results:

Criteria

Units

Top 5

+3.5

Top 5 + Bottom 5

+12

All

+6.5

Last week's top 5 were 3/5, with Indianapolis, San Francisco and Los Angeles all covering their underdog spreads, and the 49ers actually 'upsetting' the Giants. At home. Well, the Giants were somehow favored in that one but it still counts... Unfortunately Dallas failed miserably and Minnesota largely outplayed the Redskins, but it was still a positive week.

Meanwhile at the other end, only my slightly misguided decision to avoid the Panthers -9 a(nd take the Dolphins to lose but cover) lost, with New England, the Rams and Detroit all covering big spreads and the Seahawks involved in a push at Arizona. That was our 'optimal' strategy last week. We need to be more judicious about those games in the 6-10 bracket, as there were a couple of relatively irrational decisions (Buffalo +3) that belied their position in the table. Essentially, if it's going to be an upset, it needs to be in the top 5...

Season record:

Criteria

Units

Top 5

+7

Top 5 + Bottom 5

+19

All

+37.5

Alright, that's pretty cool. I think what is most interesting is the impact that categorising games has had on the overall ATS picks. I can't reveal the methodology completely as it's part of something bigger for Pickwatch in future. My ethos on ATS is simple: Where are the opportunities, and why do I win some games and lose others?

I'll expand a bit more as we get closer to a release, but the plan is to give each of you your own personalized look at how your own strategy (or in fact, strategies) are performing and highlight improvements you can make to up your overall % towards a winning % each season.

Anyway, that's for a future week, so let's get on with the picks! (blurbs to be updated Thursday evening)

1 - Baltimore @ Green Bay (+2.5)

Now this is a really easy one. That might feel like a trap sometimes, but I'm not too worried about the fact that the Packers are playing without Aaron Jones or Ty Montgomery. Those two guys are good, they're useful, but this Packers team was built around passing and the better Brett Hundley does, the better their chances of winning.

Last week Hundley took on a very impressive Bears defense and completed 73% of his passes, a marked improvement on the 58% he'd had in previous weeks. I don't want to make this all about the QB's, but that is a massive factor in whether the Packers can win or not, and equally, Joe Flacco's lack of performance has hurt the Ravens. What I hate is that they run a lot of short passes (as they always have with Flacco) but lack the playmakers they used to have who would turn dump-off passes into big gains.

The Ravens lost two NFC North games (Bears and Vikings) back to back earlier in the season in different circumstances. The patronizing chatter about Hundley being similar to Aaron Rodgers tells you that they consider themselves favorites here, and I really would disagree with that entirely...

2 - Tennessee (+7) @ Pittsburgh

OH REALLY! Well well well, I was a Jacoby Brissett definite 100% concussion away from a huge upset call with the Colts over the Steelers last week, but in pure ATS terms, it didn't matter. I had a good feeling about the Colts, and the Steelers, for the zillionth time, are getting way too much of a line here.

The Steelers have played 5 games this season with a line of -7 or higher, and they've failed to cover 4/5 times, against such luminaries as Indy, Jacksonville, Chicago and Cleveland. The Titans are better than those teams and will pose a difficult threat with Marcus Mariota recovered from injury. The Steelers are getting way too reliant on 1-2 big plays a game from the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster, and they're seeing Antonio Brown shut down to <100yd performances over the last 3 weeks.

There's a really good line here if you're a bettor at +7 for the Titans.

3 - Tampa Bay (+1) @ Miami

There is nothing in history I would rather do less than bet on the Dolphins to win, with the state they're in at the moment. Maybe that might be an exaggeration, I'd probably not even want to go back to the days of pre-smartphones if I'm honest, but whatever. You get the drift.

This isn't an overwhelming endorsement of the Bucs, who are objectively mediocre, but I would rather take mediocre over downright infuriating.

4 - Atlanta (+3) @ Seattle

Tough one. I like the Seahawks at home in prime time, and they often just seem to find a way to win via some Russell Wilson moment of inspired genius, but they have been somewhat underwhelming over the last few weeks and failed to cover their last 3 games. They're particularly not scoring points, and despite the Falcons' inability to score either, I think this is a nailbiter, and the Falcons will have every chance to win it.

As an aside, the Seahawks have a tough schedule coming up, with Atlanta, Philly, Jacksonville, the Rams and Dallas. They have the wins on the board and the luxury of playing the Cardinals and 49ers in that time, but they need to play better to make the playoffs.

5 - Jacksonville @ Cleveland (+7.5)

Well, it had to happen didn't it? The Browns have finally made it to the point where I'm ready to consider them a potential upset candidate again. Well done them. They're now less bad than they were.

On paper, the Jags should dominate, but the signs were there for the Browns that things can be better last week. They were a completely ridiculous DeShone Kizer audible away from putting the Lions in serious trouble, and they keep getting hot starts but failing to finish.

I'm not selling them, I know, but I think this is it. Their one win of the season comes on Sunday. If it comes off, I'll be a hero forever. If it doesn't, I'll just be another on the long list of human beings disappointed by the Cleveland Browns.

The rest of week 11's slate...

6: LA Rams at Minnesota (-2.5)

I really like the Rams but I'm worried that they've had some easy sledding recently in the Cardinals, Giants and Texans. This is a big game for Case Keenum who I think is every bit an NFL starter, but most importantly, the Vikings will be a huge test for the free-scoring Rams.

7: Buffalo @ LA Chargers (-4)

This team wasn't built on Tyrod Taylor, it was built on a solid defense and a running game. They will likely lean on both this week, and that tentatively makes me wary of the Chargers. I still have learned that in these games, it's better to err with the favorite, but I just want you to know that while the Chargers are the better team here, the Bills have a possibility to win. There, I said it. Still picking the Chargers.

8 - Detroit (-2.5) @ Chicago

9 - Cincinnati @ Denver (-2.5)

10 - New England (-7.5) @ Oakland

11 - Philadelphia (-3) @ Dallas

12 - Washington @ New Orleans (-7)

13 - Kansas City (-10.5) @ New York Giants

14 - Arizona @ Houston (push)