Week 4 of the 2014 NFL season officially marks the quarter-season stage for many teams, which means it's worthwhile taking a pause to assess how things are going. We've put together a brief analysis of how this year's data compares to last year, and some of the results may surprise you, as we find that when it comes to picking games, in some cases the experts are more accurate than in 2013...
If you're the Oakland Raiders, look away now.
The Bad News
As a number of people have put it, 2014 has been a very crazy year in terms of consistency from what we've come to think of as 'reliable' teams such as New England, New Orleans and San Francisco. We've also seen surprises thrown up by the likes of the Bills, Browns and Dolphins that have put them back into the mid-tier group of 'spoiler' teams who just delight in making your picking week so hard.
It's easy to get caught up in the moment in the NFL. Announcers eulogize every big play as if the events represent a new milestone in NFL history, almost wiping our memories of years gone by. It's ironic that for a league steeped in history and so keen to delve into it's past, the NFL almost falls over itself to forget about last season.
That mindset can easily apply to pick'em, where this year we have seen a bad start to the season become accepted as the de facto worst ever season when it comes to predicting winners. That type of attitude could discourage many from sticking it out and getting their picks in each week, but that doesn't make any sense. If a year is bad for picking, then it's also bad for your fellow pickers, so you have just as good a chance of winning as anyone else.
But exactly how bad has it been for experts this year?
Well, first of all, lets take a look at our overall standings from week 4 last season for some perspective:
Ron Jaworski
ESPN
47
16
75%
Matt Miller
Bleacher Report
46
17
73%
Ty Schalter
Bleacher Report
45
18
71%
Prediction Machine
CBS
44
19
70%
Don Banks
Sports Illustrated
44
19
70%
Michael Silver
NFL
44
19
70%
Jamey Eisenberg
CBS
44
19
70%
Henry Hodgson
NFL
43
20
68%
Les Carpenter
Yahoo
43
20
68%
Gregg Rosenthal
NFL
43
20
68%
Chris Brockman
NFL
43
20
68%
Michael David Smith
PFT
43
20
68%
Cris Carter
ESPN
43
20
68%
Sam Monson
ProFootballFocus
42
21
67%
Ben Stockwell
ProFootballFocus
42
21
67%
Mike Ditka
ESPN
42
21
67%
Simon Samano
USA Today
42
21
67%
Andrea Hangst
Bleacher Report
42
21
67%
Joel Beall
FOX
42
21
67%
Pete O'Brien
USA Today
42
21
67%
Ryan Wilson
CBS
42
21
67%
Nathan Jahnke
ProFootballFocus
42
21
67%
Chris Law
NFL
41
22
65%
Black Tie
NFL
41
22
65%
Will Brinson
CBS
41
22
65%
John Halpin
FOX
41
22
65%
Adam Rank
NFL
41
22
65%
Michael Fabiano
NFL
41
22
65%
Mark Schlereth
ESPN
41
22
65%
Mike Florio
PFT
41
22
65%
Chris Mortensen
ESPN
41
22
65%
Rich Eisen
NFL
41
22
65%
Nate Davis
USA Today
41
22
65%
Steve Mariucci
NFL
41
22
65%
Erik Frenz
Bleacher Report
41
22
65%
Tom Jackson
ESPN
41
22
65%
Rick Drummond
ProFootballFocus
40
23
63%
Lindsay H. Jones
USA Today
40
23
63%
Mike Golic
ESPN
40
23
63%
Frank Schwab
Yahoo
40
23
63%
Khaled Elsayed
ProFootballFocus
40
23
63%
Warren Sapp
NFL
40
23
63%
Tyson Langland
Bleacher Report
40
23
63%
Marc Sessler
NFL
40
23
63%
John Breech
CBS
40
23
63%
K.C. Joyner
ESPN
40
23
63%
Chris Hansen
Bleacher Report
40
23
63%
Michael Schottey
Bleacher Report
39
24
62%
NFL FAN PICKS
NFL
39
24
62%
Pickwatch
Pickwatch
39
24
62%
Adam Meyer
FOX
39
24
62%
Zach Kruse
Bleacher Report
39
24
62%
Tom Pelissero
USA Today
39
24
62%
Keyshawn Johnson
ESPN
39
24
62%
Ryan Fowler
FOX
39
24
62%
Matt Bowen
Bleacher Report
39
24
62%
Brad Gagnon
Bleacher Report
39
24
62%
Melissa Stark
NFL
38
25
60%
Brian Baldinger
NFL
38
25
60%
Seth Wickersham
ESPN
38
25
60%
Merill Hoge
ESPN
38
25
60%
Jason La Canfora
CBS
38
25
60%
Matt Smith
NFL
38
25
60%
Accuscore
Accuscore
38
25
60%
Pick ‘em
ESPN
38
25
60%
Yahoo Users
Yahoo
38
25
60%
Chris Wesseling
NFL
38
25
60%
Whatifsports
FOX
38
25
60%
Michael Irvin
NFL
38
25
60%
Elliot Harrison
NFL
38
25
60%
Kevin Patra
NFL
38
25
60%
Neil Hornsby
ProFootballFocus
38
25
60%
Jarrett Bell
USA Today
37
26
59%
Kurt Warner
NFL
37
26
59%
Vinnie Iyer
Sporting News
37
26
59%
Mike Freeman
Bleacher Report
37
26
59%
Dan Hanzus
NFL
37
26
59%
Dave Richard
CBS
37
26
59%
Josh Katzowitz
CBS
37
26
59%
Dave Damashek
NFL
36
27
57%
Pete Prisco
CBS
36
27
57%
Knox Bardeen
Bleacher Report
36
27
57%
Marshall Faulk
NFL
36
27
57%
Adam Schefter
ESPN
36
27
57%
Sterling Sharpe
NFL
36
27
57%
Eric Allen
ESPN
36
27
57%
Steve Wyche
NFL
35
28
56%
Heath Evans
NFL
35
28
56%
Jim Corbett
USA Today
35
28
56%
Steve Palazzolo
ProFootballFocus
34
29
54%
Shaun O'Hara
NFL
33
30
52%
Gordon McGuinness
ProFootballFocus
32
31
51%
Coin Toss
None
21
42
33%
As you can see, the biggest difference is in the top overall score, around 8% higher than this season's (joint) top performers, Chris Simms of Bleacher Report and Pete Prisco of CBS. In real terms, they're 6 games shy of Ron Jaworski's record at this stage last year, a pretty large gap, but not insurmountable. An average of 10 wins for the rest of the season would actually see them beat Halpin's final score of 186 correct picks in 2013.
Ignoring the coin toss (and you should ignore it...) Gordon McGuinness of PFF was on 51%, the worst score of any analyst by week 4 in 2013. Conversely, 3 experts stand on just 44% accuracy in 2014, again down a big (in betting and prediction terms) 7%. On a positive note, last year even bottom-dweller Shaun o'Hara managed to improve some 6% over the course of the season, so there is hope for us all.
The top and bottom percentiles, as you can imagine, are simply reflections of the performance of every expert through this year. The average score - admittedly of 126 rather than 92 experts, as we've expanded our pool - is down from 63% to 57%
The Good News
OH IT'S SO CRAZY HOW CAN WE EVEN PREDICT ANYTHING? That has been the cry on twitter over the last few weeks, as people seek to justify their woes by pinning them entirely on what they consider to be an unfair playing field. After all, if the games won't just go the way of the favorites, why bother? Well, just hold on there Jimmy, let uncle Pickwatch put things into perspective for you.
Well, it's a bit misleading to say that everything is against us. A number of analysts scoffed at the Bears failing to beat the Bills when they'd been picked by 99% of experts. Not only was this a big upset, but it was portrayed as symptomatic of a failure by big favorites to come through this year.
Au contraire my friends. Our stats show that consensus picks of over 95% have actually been more accurate than in 2013 heading into week 5:
2013
W
L
2014
W
L
week 1
3
2
week 1
4
2
week 2
8
1
week 2
2
2
week 3
2
2
week 3
5
0
week 4
2
1
week 4
2
1
Win %
71.43%
Win %
72.22%
Food for thought? Yes, the experts have roundly failed to predict plenty of games, but as you can see, the experts have been slightly more accurate when picking en masse.
We're also keen to put the early season scores of some experts into perspective.
Last year John Halpin triumphed with a score of almost 70%. That's an impressive rate for anyone picking games straight up (we hear a LOT of talk from people who curiously pick outside of our site about numbers over 70-80%- the holy grail of straight up picking)
The positive slant is that by this point, Halpin was only on 65%, therefore it is entirely possible that either the lead dogs will continue improving their averages after a poor first few weeks set everyone back, or that another guy or girl will move up in our rankings a la Halpin last year. Hell, as he currently resides on the same percentage, maybe he'll do it again?
Equally, we'd expect that over a full season, computer-based sims such as Prediction Machine and Accuscore will eventually rise to the top, as these machines rarely attempt to predict an upset, instead focusing on the percentages. Like Vegas, they'll often get more right than wrong as the season progresses, but they'll struggle to identify an overhyped team like the Falcons or Patriots, or a 'trap' game involving a .500 underdog.
The moral of this story? In the words of the Clichésaurus, you can only beat what is in front of you. If it's a bad year for most people, you can still win, even if the final scores are lower than last year.
As you know, we have lots of data stored away on last year, and our intention is to make this available to you. At the moment, maintaining the site for 2014 takes up all of our time, but rest assured we WILL make this available as soon as we get a chance. Keep an eye on our twitter and facebook pages for more updates on that front.
