Super Bowl Football

*Editor's note: We have no axe to grind with the Patriots. We simply wish that the game of football be a fair sporting contest and that all transgressions protect our game.

Remember September of last year? We were all rightly pretty worked up about the NFL's handling of the Ray Rice case, decrying the ridiculous punishment(s) meted out to Rice for beating his fiancée on CCTV. It looked like a lenient slap on the wrist, followed by summary justice based on the league's image, than a sentence based on the crime committed.

And that's because that is exactly what it was.

Yes, the league has made a habit in recent years of 'protecting the shield' above all else, but this has been relatively easy for Commissioner Roger Goodell when dealing with criminal or nefarious activity off the field, as the integrity of the sporting event has never really been in question - at least not beyond a ridiculous level of PED offences.

Knocked your wife out? That's a paddlin'

Paid some of your players to injure opponents? That's a paddlin'

Been accused of assaulting your partner? That's probably a paddlin' once your court case is done.

But in all of those cases, the NFL had no reason to sympathize with the offender. It was easy to paint Rice, Hardy, McDonald, Payton, Vilma, Smith et al as bad apples and sacrifice them to protect the league's image. By suspending or removing them from the public eye, it was easy for Goodell to pretend to the public that the sanctity of what happens on the field remained intact, and fans were able to turn a blind eye and continue to 'enjoy the product on the field', as nobody except marketing execs would say.

Until now. Now there is a problem.

When the call came in to Roger Goodell on Sunday, informing him that the Patriots had been caught deflating balls below the minimum amount required by league rules, you can guarantee he wished it was another team. 'Not the Patriots. Not now, on the cusp of a Super Bowl' he will have thought.

Yes, this really is the perfect storm in terms of potential on-field cheating. Let's look at some of the boxes this one ticks:

  • The offence involves conduct that theoretically could effect the result of a game? Check.
  • Suggestion that one of the league's greatest ever players is involved? Check.
  • The team involved have history of breaking rules to try and gain an advantage? Check.
  • The team has a historic NFL legacy that could potentially be tainted by the allegations? Check.
  • The team is playing in the Super Bowl next week? Check.
  • There is still a week more for the media to get their teeth into this one? Check.

Let's not wash our hands of this one, regardless of allegiance: It's a serious problem for everyone concerned, even if Bill Belichick and Tom Brady aren't involved personally. It's still a question for the Patriots to answer, and also for the league, who have been backed into a difficult corner by someone in this particular organization again - regardless of how far up the chain it goes.

I got the impression when Belichick took to the podium on Thursday that he himself also feels slightly aggrieved that his reputation is being questioned once again. It's rare for him to essentially push the burden onto someone else within the Patriots, let alone Brady, so him telling the media to ask his Quarterback awkward questions was very telling. The act of deflating balls is also not particularly... Belichickian anyway. Not dastardly enough by half. I believe he isn't involved in this, and I suspect most neutral fans probably feel the same.

Let's look at the roads the league could go down, and how likely the NFL are to adopt each strategy for handling this mess:

whitewash

Option 1) The Whitewash

This will be the most tempting for Goodell and his 32 bosses, none of whom wish for an event like this to cost them money in the long run. This is the first time since Spygate in 2007 (feat. none other than YOUR NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS everybody!) that the league has faced a scandal that could change how previous results are perceived by fans. Even worse, with this being the Pats again, we are quickly entering Tour de France 'wiped from the records' territory.

Yes, we can pretty much guarantee that the league doesn't want the Patriots punished publicly and harshly - which in turn would be admitting that the offence may have influenced the outcome of games, something the league has strived to avoid at all costs for many years now. Such an admission would also be a sore test of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady legacy in the eyes of fans, and the league knows that the Patriots are a money-maker in every market, not just Boston.

The problem for the NFL is that to justify not punishing the Patriots, they would need to prove without doubt that deflated balls are widespread around the league, that the Patriots legitimately did not try to do it, or that they categorically don't help a QB throw the ball. None of that seems particularly likely.

Likelihood: 10%

Unfortunately for the Goodell, the window to whitewash this one is slipping shut.

As the week has drawn on, more and more commentators have erred towards the conclusion that the Patriots are at least partly guilty, and therefore must be punished. If they are, that the sentence must reflect the acknowledgement that they are not first time offenders.

Not only that, but the circumstantial evidence is just about strong enough to turn this one into a catastrophic, Rice-esque PR nightmare for the league if fans suspect Goodell has turned a blind eye or made excuses for the Patriots.

ehonda

Option 2) The slap on the wrist

The league will want to publicly be seen to do justice, but to do so reluctantly, and on a technicality - ie: they will imply that the league does not believe the outcome of games has been altered in any way by the Patriots' activities, but that by the letter of the law they have been forced to punish the team.

But of course, in the court of public opinion, we may rightly ask how they know that it hasn't? Nobody can doubt that someone within the Patriots has done this for a competitive advantage, so if it doesn't work, why bother? It's fair to assume that if a game is on the line, it would help Brady to have these deflated footballs, rather than legal ones.

To get into very murky - but interesting - territory, the Pats won 3 games (Raiders by 7, Jets twice by 2 and 1) by less than a touchdown this season, games that would - if they hadn't won - have left them on a 9-7 record.

Of course, with the Chiefs having convincingly routed the Pats in week 4, that would mean that the Patriots would have missed the playoffs. As I say, this is something most reasonable fans would rightly dismiss as hypothetical, but there is an element of rival NFL fans that will take this and run with it. I'm sure most of you have come across Spygate 'literature' that effectively uses 2007 as justification to write off the whole Patriots dynasty and all subsequent achievements. If people can come to those conclusions from Spygate, they will do the same with this unless the league can prove otherwise.

Of course, we have no way of knowing if that was the case, or if the Patriots would have won those games anyway. It is, however, fair to ask how anyone could argue that it has no impact whatsoever.

Likelihood: 89%

Check out this LEAGUE TWEET of Andrew Luck, and tell me whether they are preparing the ground for this?

"You can't take anything away from them being a heck of a team." http://t.co/dPRj5wiWz2 pic.twitter.com/BN83PWeppJ

— NFL (@nfl) January 23, 2015

I'd say a token fine and/or draft pick forfeit is the odds on favorite right now. The league will try to deflect criticism from Belichick at all costs, knowing that his reputation is already mud with many rival fans and even some neutral commentators. Could Brady be the sacrificial lamb? It's possible, given that Belichick has put him in position as the prime defendant after Thursday's press conference, but the general consensus amongst the media is that an equipment manager or other patsy will be found to take the fall. The league will fine the Pats for not preventing it, but will absolve them of all blame.

More importantly, they'll pretend that there is no evidence to suggest that when the Patriots beat the Jets by a single point, the balls may have changed the outcome. It is of course, completely unarguable that they definitely did, but it's equally impossible to say that they 100% did not.

Just remember that when the league comes out with a statement saying otherwise.

nuclear

Option 3: Go nuclear** and remove the Patriots from the Super Bowl.**

This would probably be pretty harsh in my view, and would require a massive burden of proof that the league probably doesn't have.

If the league felt, however, that this was systematic, that it was unique to New England, and that it had improved the Patriots' chances of winning, then they would have little alternative but to potentially replace the Patriots in the biggest game of the season. It would, however, alienate huge swathes of people in doing so.

The NFL would become notorius amongst non-fans worldwide for having to remove their AFC champions from their showcase event. Robert Kraft would be angry that his team had been punished as a whole for an act that may never have been preventable (if nobody was aware). New England fans would likely boycott anything NFL-related that didn't directly help the Patriots, while Brady and Belichick would be forever tarnished as cheaters, despite winning such a ridiculous amount of games over the last 15 years that even the most ardent 'Cheatriots' proponent would be hard pressed to suggest that it was down to underhand activity.

Likelihood: 1%

They really, really shouldn't do this, but it is worth discussing what could prompt the league into such action.

In my view, the only way the league could (and probably should) punish the Patriots to such an extent is if they find proof that Belichick AND Brady were actively encouraging or participating in the practise of deflating balls, and that they have spent this week lying. I don't believe that personally, and it stretches the limits of credulity to imagine two men with such passion and respect for the game of football engaging in this type of blatant activity.

Basically, if that happens, the 2015 Super Bowl will be forever asterisked, which would be terrible for fans, players and the teams involved, innocent or otherwise.

Conclusion

It sucks that we're talking about this right now, it really does. I'm pretty sure that most of you are as sick as I am of the constant media barrage (including this, just to be hypocritical) regarding the Patriots and their ways. It's also pretty disheartening to hear respected former-pros like Troy Aikman and Don Shula effectively resort to name-calling against Belichick and the Patriots.

Unfortunately, there is no escaping that this is the position we are in. To do nothing is tempting, as is the idea that it had no effect at all. Unfortunately, even someone like myself who believed - and still believes - that prior to 2007 a number of teams were likely to be taping defensive signals, must admit that when it comes to something as tangible and obvious as ball tampering, the league must protect itself and fans from the possibility that a team will try this again.

Here's hoping that whatever happens, justice is fair, swift and doesn't leave too many unanswered questions. We'd like to get back to the picks, please.