Here at Pickwatch our remit is simple - track the experts and help you make the best NFL and college picks each week. We put in the hard work so that you don't have to,

A few years ago, we added a few 'experts' to the table such as 'Home Teams' and 'Road Teams' that weren't analysts or people, they were just a statistical comparison that you could use to see whether there was any validity to favoring either the home or road teams in pick'em.

Last year, we added two further categories - Best Defense and Best QB. The former was based on the average points per game (PPG) allowed by the defense, the latter based on ESPN's Quarterback Rating (QBR) system. They were never intended to be anything more than an objective look at how picking based on those principles would see you fare in pick'em and ATS picks.

In straight up picks, none of the above have proved particularly impressive. Home and road records are split around 55-45 (far from the 'home advantage' that is assumed), while the best defense (59%) and the best QB (54%) rankings fell well below the majority of experts.

In against the spread, however, there was an indication that at least one factor may be something to take note of. 'Best Defense' performed very well indeed, finishing the 2015 season 4th of all our experts with a money-making final score of 54.1%. In context, you'd require 52.38% over the whole season to break even. When the margins are so tight, every percentage point is important.

2016

We've adjusted our thinking on this one and come up with 9 new statistical categories that we will track for you in 2016 not only as part of the expert tables, but as their own micro-blog within the site.

Again, to clarify, we are doing this to find out which is the best method of picking games, not to claim which team in a given matchup has the best defense, QB or other category. You can certainly make a case each week that some teams are over or underrated by the media, therefore these categories are all based only on numbers. The stats are taken from objective sources that are easily verified, so no opinions are used in the creation of this data. This will particularly be the case when high profile QB's meet QB's considered way below them and the latter is deemed the 'best' pick based on QBR. Basically, don't be mad if your QB is ranked below Trevor Siemian some weeks...

Defensive

Best Defense (PPG) (formerly Team with best Defense) - Based on picking the team with the least average points allowed per game by both defenses.

Rushing Yards Allowed - The team that has allowed the fewest average rushing yards per game

Passing Yards Allowed - The team that has allowed the fewest average passing yards per game

Offensive

Best Offense (PPG) - Picking the team with most points per game in each matchup.

*PPG Difference (PPG Margin) *- I plan to expand the PPG stat further for ATS purposes based on the specific difference in points scored on average - eg: if a team averages 25.1pts and the opponents 19.5pts, and the spread is say, -4,we'd pick the favorite. If the margins were 23.5 and 22.9, and the spread was -2.5, we'd pick the underdog.

Best QB (QBR) (Formerly Team with best Defense) - Based entirely on ESPN's 'QBR' stat - pick is the QB with the best performance over the season. Where a QB has not played, the pick will always be a QB who has played and has a QBR. If neither have played, it will be no pick. If a player falls out of the QBR list because they have been injured or replaced, but is starting a game, we will go back to the last available QBR entry to choose.

Best Rushing Game (YPG) - Picking the team with the most average rushing yards per game

Pest Passing Game (YPG) - Picking the team with the most average passing yards in each game

Special teams

Best Kicker (Accuracy %) - Picking the team whose kicker has the best field goal % for the season

* For week 1, all data is based on 2015

As you can see, it's a lot of work, but the idea is that every week you can check in to see if this year there's a statistical pattern to games where an element is more crucial than another. These stats will all show as part of the normal expert straight up and ATS tables to compare with the analyst picks, but w'll also do a weekly article that tracks these stats in more detail. We have some ideas of when these specific categories might fare better in regards to 'clutch' games (as we refer to them) where the experts are divided and spreads are close. How vital might a good kicker be then?

If you have any ideas for further stats you think are good to track, we're happy to consider them. Please try to look at the stats objectively before suggesting them - we don't want this section of the site to become about opinions over numbers. We're just interested in helping you make the best choices.