Josh Katzowitz’s Week 6 NFL Picks


The Jets have no business beating the Patriots. Really, it seems like they almost never should, but under former coach Rex Ryan, they made it a habit.

From 2009-14, the Jets went 4-9 against the Patriots, and a number of those losses were closer than expected. Not that New York had such great success against New England, but for some reason, these games, no matter how heavily the Patriots were favored, always were nail-biters for New England fans, especially when their team had to go on the road.

Since coach Todd Bowles took over in New York, the Jets have gone 1-3 vs. New England, but two of those losses were by seven points or less. So again, not great, but not horrendous either.

This year, the Jets were supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league. Instead, they’re 3-2 and tied for first in the AFC East along with the Bills and the Patriots. Yes, they’ve beaten some of the league’s bottom-feeders, but hell, they could have lost those games instead. New York plays host to New England on Sunday. As of this writing, the Jets are a 10-point underdog. But I’m not so very confident the Patriots will cover, and honestly, I wouldn’t bet the mortgage that they’ll win either.

Something always seems to get strange when the Patriots face the Jets, and this year, with how unexpected New York’s season has already been, could be no exception.

As usual, check out Pickwatch’s John Halpin’s full slate of Week 6 picks and the Upset Watch from Shaun Lowrie. Now, here are a few of mine (If I’m right, make sure to congratulate me @jkatzo on Twitter).




1)Bet your life savings on this game*

49ers at Redskins

San Francisco is 0-5, but my initial thought in this game was that the Redskins giving 10 points was a bit much. After losing by 20 to the Panthers in the season opener, the 49ers have lost their next four games by a total of 11 points. Yes, San Francisco is bad, but it probably doesn’t deserve to be 0-5. On the other hand, the Redskins are coming off their bye week, and San Francisco has to travel across the country to play in the 1 p.m. ET game. It’s simply not a recipe for success. So, take the Redskins, and then be like Mike Pence. Get up from your seat and just leave the damn stadium before the 49ers even take the field.

Straight up: Redskins

Against the Spread: Redskins -10

2017 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 3-2 S/U and 2-3 ATS

2)This game scares the hell out of me

Eagles at Panthers

It’s hard not to like the Eagles this year. Carson Wentz, in his second season, has been solid at quarterback, tight end Zach Ertz has caught the third-most passes in the league, and receiver Nelson Agholor has, at times, been a revelation. But the Panthers defense has been stingy with their yards allowed this year, and the team is coming off back-to-back road wins vs. the Patriots and the Lions. I’m beginning to think the Panthers are for real. I’m pretty sure Philadelphia is, too. Which makes this a difficult game to predict. Ultimately, I’ll go with the Panthers, and I’m pretty sure Rosie the Riveter would agree.

Straight up: Panthers

Against the Spread: Eagles +3.5

2017 record for the “Scares the hell out of me” game: 5-0 S/U and 4-1 ATS




3) Fun game of the week

Steelers at Chiefs

This game is a fun one, only because I’m interested to see if Kansas City can keep alive its undefeated record. We discussed last week that the Chiefs might be a great team, and we saw that again on Sunday. Even though Kansas City was coming off a Monday night game and even though Houston had just dominated Tennessee, the Chiefs scored 42 points to outlast the Texans in Houston. The Steelers, meanwhile, were unbearably bad last week, getting dominated by the Jaguars. Pittsburgh will play better this week, but Kansas City at home is going to be too much for the Steelers to handle.

Straight up: Chiefs

Against the Spread: Chiefs -4

 

2017 record for “Fun game of the week”: 4-1 S/U and 3-2 ATS

2017 record for every game picked in this column: 12-3 S/U and 9-6 ATS

 

S/U                            ATS

CAR over PHI          PHI +3.5

BAL over CHI          CHI +7

HOU over CLE        CLE +10

GB over MIN          GB -6

DET over NO          DET +5

ATL over MIA        ATL -11.5

NE over NYJ           NYJ +10

WAS over SF          WAS -10

ARI over TB            ARI +2

LAC over OAK        N/A

JAC over LA           JAC -2.5

KC over PIT            KC -4 (fun)

DEN over NYG      NYG +12

TEN over IND        N/A

 

*Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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