Josh Katzowitz’s Week 5 NFL Picks


If you had told me the Kansas City Chiefs would be the last undefeated team in the NFL this year, I would have probably said you were nuts.

And here would have been good reasons why: Kansas City started off the season facing New England, which should have been a surefire loss. Kansas City starts Alex Smith, a solid but not spectacular quarterback. Kansas City has been good, but not necessarily great in coach Andy Reid’s four years.

Here’s the reality: The Chiefs might be a great team after all. They blasted through the Patriots in Week 1, and since then, they’ve beaten the Eagles and the Redskins, both of whom are solid or better squads. Smith is having, at this point, one of the best years of his 13-year career. The Chiefs defense is good, and the offense has been even better.

This week, the Chiefs face the Texans on the road. I don’t particularly like Kansas City in this game. The Chiefs have to travel. They played last Monday night, and they have less than seven days to prepare. The Texans just dominated the Titans. But I’ll go with Kansas City, I suppose, because the Chiefs are apparently a bunch of winners this year. Right now, there’s no denying that.

As usual, check out Pickwatch’s John Halpin’s full slate of Week 5 picks and the Upset Watch from Shaun Lowrie. Now, here are a few of mine (If I’m right, make sure to congratulate me @jkatzo on Twitter).

1)Bet your life savings on this game*

Jaguars at Steelers

I’m not quite sure what to make of the Jaguars. They’re tied for first in the incredibly weak AFC South, and they destroyed the Ravens in Week 3. But then they came out in Week 4 and lost to the Jets. It’d be an unfathomable turnaround if this wasn’t such a strange NFL season already. That said, I like the Steelers here at home. Le’Veon Bell had his best game of the season last week, and Jacksonville has been putrid against the run. Look for Bell to have plenty of scoring opportunities here as Pittsburgh covers the spread handily.

Straight up: Steelers

Against the Spread: Steelers -8.5

2017 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 3-1 S/U and 2-2 ATS

2)This game scares the hell out of me

Titans at Dolphins

It’s hard to know what to do with this game. I thought the Dolphins would be OK this year with Jay Cutler as quarterback. So far, the results are mixed, and last week, they got shut out with Cutler at his most awful. I also thought the Titans would be decent, especially in a terrible AFC South. But then Houston thoroughly embarrassed Tennessee last week, and that also was pretty eye-opening. How do you pick this game? Beats me. You hold your nose, you close your eyes, and you pick the team that doesn’t currently employ Brandon Weeden.

Straight up: Dolphins

Against the Spread: Dolphins -3

2017 record for the “Scares the hell out of me” game: 4-0 S/U and 3-1 ATS

3) Fun game of the week

Packers at Cowboys

After a Week 2 setback to the Falcons, the Packers have been rolling the past two weeks, knocking off the Bengals in a tougher-than-expected game at home and then steamrolling the Bears last week. The Cowboys have been up and down all season, but they’re playing at home and should be more dangerous there (though the Rams last week didn’t seem to think so). This should be an exciting game, but I’ll take Aaron Rodgers and the Packers with 10 days of rest to top the Cowboys in Dallas—just like the Packers did in the playoffs last year.

Straight up: Packers

Against the Spread: Packers +2.5

2017 record for “Fun game of the week”: 3-1 S/U and 2-2 ATS

2017 record for every game picked in this column: 10-2 S/U and 7-5 ATS

 

 

S/U                            ATS

NE over TB               NE -5.5

CLE over NYJ            CLE -1

DET over CAR          DET -2.5

SF over IND              SF +1.5

BUF over CIN           BUF +3

NYG over LAC          LAC +3.5

MIA over TEN         MIA -3

PHI over ARI            ARI +6.5

PIT over JAC            PIT -8.5

SEA over LAR          SEA +1

OAK over BAL         OAK -2.5

GB over DAL           GB +2

KC over HOU          KC -1

MIN over CHI         MIN -3

 

*Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


About Shaun Lowrie

Shaun Lowrie is the founder and editor of Pickwatch, a site designed to give you a new perspective on experts in the NFL media by tracking their performance when picking games or predicting draft picks, team performance, or player potential. You can contact him at [email protected] or on twitter at @pickwatch

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