And here would have been good reasons why: Kansas City started off the season facing New England, which should have been a surefire loss. Kansas City starts Alex Smith, a solid but not spectacular quarterback. Kansas City has been good, but not necessarily great in coach Andy Reid‚Äôs four years.
Here‚Äôs the reality: The Chiefs might be a great team after all. They blasted through the Patriots in Week 1, and since then, they‚Äôve beaten the Eagles and the Redskins, both of whom are solid or better squads. Smith is having, at this point, one of the best years of his 13-year career. The Chiefs defense is good, and the offense has been even better.
This week, the Chiefs face the Texans on the road. I don‚Äôt particularly like Kansas City in this game. The Chiefs have to travel. They played last Monday night, and they have less than seven days to prepare. The Texans just dominated the Titans. But I‚Äôll go with Kansas City, I suppose, because the Chiefs are apparently a bunch of winners this year. Right now, there‚Äôs no denying that.
As usual, check out Pickwatch‚Äôs John Halpin‚Äôs full slate of Week 5 picks and the Upset Watch from Shaun Lowrie. Now, here are a few of mine (If I‚Äôm right, make sure to congratulate me @jkatzo on Twitter).
1)Bet your life savings on this game*
Jaguars at Steelers
I‚Äôm not quite sure what to make of the Jaguars. They‚Äôre tied for first in the incredibly weak AFC South, and they destroyed the Ravens in Week 3. But then they came out in Week 4 and lost to the Jets. It‚Äôd be an unfathomable turnaround if this wasn‚Äôt such a strange NFL season already. That said, I like the Steelers here at home. Le‚ÄôVeon Bell had his best game of the season last week, and Jacksonville has been putrid against the run. Look for Bell to have plenty of scoring opportunities here as Pittsburgh covers the spread handily.
Straight up: Steelers
Against the Spread: Steelers -8.5
2017 record for the ‚ÄúBet your life savings‚ÄĚ game: 3-1 S/U and 2-2 ATS
2)This game scares the hell out of me
Titans at Dolphins
It‚Äôs hard to know what to do with this game. I thought the Dolphins would be OK this year with Jay Cutler as quarterback. So far, the results are mixed, and last week, they got shut out with Cutler at his most awful. I also thought the Titans would be decent, especially in a terrible AFC South. But then Houston thoroughly embarrassed Tennessee last week, and that also was pretty eye-opening. How do you pick this game? Beats me. You hold your nose, you close your eyes, and you pick the team that doesn‚Äôt currently employ Brandon Weeden.
Straight up: Dolphins
Against the Spread: Dolphins -3
2017 record for the ‚ÄúScares the hell out of me‚ÄĚ game: 4-0 S/U and 3-1 ATS
3) Fun game of the week
Packers at Cowboys
After a Week 2 setback to the Falcons, the Packers have been rolling the past two weeks, knocking off the Bengals in a tougher-than-expected game at home and then steamrolling the Bears last week. The Cowboys have been up and down all season, but they‚Äôre playing at home and should be more dangerous there (though the Rams last week didn‚Äôt seem to think so). This should be an exciting game, but I‚Äôll take Aaron Rodgers and the Packers with 10 days of rest to top the Cowboys in Dallas‚ÄĒjust like the Packers did in the playoffs last year.
Straight up: Packers
Against the Spread: Packers +2.5
2017 record for ‚ÄúFun game of the week‚ÄĚ: 3-1 S/U and 2-2 ATS
2017 record for every game picked in this column: 10-2 S/U and 7-5 ATS
NE over TB¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† ¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†NE -5.5
CLE over NYJ¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† CLE -1
DET over CAR¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† DET -2.5
SF over IND¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† SF +1.5
BUF over CIN¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† BUF +3
NYG over LAC¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† LAC +3.5
MIA over TEN¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† MIA -3
PHI over ARI¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† ARI +6.5
PIT over JAC¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† ¬†¬†¬†PIT -8.5
SEA over LAR¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† SEA +1
OAK over BAL¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† OAK -2.5
GB over DAL¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† GB +2
KC over HOU¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† KC -1
MIN over CHI¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬†¬† MIN -3
*Don‚Äôt really bet your life savings. Please.