Josh Katzowitz’s Week 4 NFL Picks


For the second straight week, we’re not getting a mid-week betting line on the Vikings, because, once again, we don’t know if Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford will play.

After a fabulous Week 1 when Bradford completed 84.3 percent of his passes for three touchdowns and zero interceptions in a Minnesota win, he’s been out the last two weeks with a knee injury.

Which is unfortunate for Vikings fans, and it’s unfortunate for people who want to bet on a Minnesota game. Normally, I’d say, “Who’s the backup? Oh, it’s Case Keenum? Well, then forget it. Go with the opponent straight-up and against the spread.” But Keenum made us look like a fool in Week 3 when he had one of the best games of his career (25 of 33 passing, 369 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, 142.1 quarterback rating).

Assuming Bradford doesn’t play this week either, Keenum will face the Lions, who allow nearly 250 passing yards per game but who also have wrangled seven interceptions, second-best in the NFL. Despite Keenum’s handiwork in Week 3, I’ll go with the opponent straight up and against the spread. But, like so much of the NFL season so far, I’m not very confident in writing that.

As usual, check out Pickwatch’s John Halpin’s full slate of Week 4 picks. Now, here are a few of mine (If I’m right, congratulate me @jkatzo on Twitter).

1)Bet your life savings on this game*

Colts at Seahawks

The Seahawks have not played well this year. They struggled mightily with the 49ers at home in Week 2, and then they fell below .500 last week with a loss at Tennessee. Their offense is average and they can’t score points, and their defense has been disappointing. Fortunately for Seattle, the Colts are coming to town. And the Colts are one of the worst teams in the league. Indianapolis is riding high after a narrow victory vs. Cleveland last week, but the Colts won’t be feeling so great after Week 4.

Straight up: Seahawks

Against the Spread: Seahawks -13

2017 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 2-1 S/U and 1-2 ATS

2)This game scares the hell out of me

Steelers at Ravens

Pittsburgh put up an embarrassing display in losing to the Bears last week, and even though it doesn’t make much sense to blame the national anthem flap, that’s just about the only thing I can think of when looking back at that game (except for, you know, all the turnovers and the blocked field goal). After all, every Steelers player except for one hid below the stadium while the national anthem played, and then, Chicago walked all over them. So, why am I picking, with just a little bit of trepidation, Pittsburgh to beat Baltimore? Because the Ravens got rolled by 37 points last week to Jacksonville (!) and, at this point, they’re simply not in the upper echelon of the AFC. After last week’s display, though, I’m not sure the Steelers are either. That’s what makes this scary, I guess.

Straight up: Steelers

Against the Spread: Steelers -3

2017 record for the “Scares the hell out of me” game: 3-0 S/U and 2-1 ATS

3) Fun game of the week

Raiders at Broncos

Both squads are coming off disappointing losses against teams they were favored to beat. But Oakland lost to the Redskins—a decent enough team—after traveling across the country to Washington. And Denver lost to the Bills—maybe a decent team—after traveling across the country to Buffalo. Now, the Raiders are traveling again to face a team that’s better than decent. I’m still not convinced Trevor Siemian is the long-term quarterback of the Broncos—though he was solid in the first two weeks—but I like the Broncos defense and I love the fact they’re at home this week against a team just coming off a tough road trip.

Straight up: Broncos

Against the Spread: Broncos -2.5

2017 record for “Fun game of the week”: 2-1 S/U and 1-2 ATS

2017 record for every game picked in this column: 7-2 S/U and 4-5 ATS

 

 

S/U                            ATS

GB over CHI             GB -7

MIA over NO           MIA +2.5

ATL over BUF          BUF +8.5

PIT over BAL           PIT -3

CIN over CLE           CIN -3

DAL over LAR          LAR +6

TEN over HOU        TEN -1.5

DET over MIN         OFF

NE over CAR           NE -9.5

JAC over NYJ          JAC -3.0

ARI over SF            SF +7

PHI over SD           PHI +1

TB over NYG         TB -3

DEN over OAK      DEN -2.5

SEA over IND        SEA -13

KC over WAS        WAS +7

<i>*Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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