Josh Katzowitz’s Week 3 NFL Picks 1


The Dolphins are off to a ridiculous start to their season.

Hurricane Irma blew out their opener, and then they had to travel across the country to face (and beat) the Chargers last week. Now, they stay on the road, traveling all the way up the East Coast to play the Jets in New Jersey. If Miami isn’t completely settled into the 2017 season, you can certainly forgive the franchise.

But the Dolphins are also all by themselves in first place in the AFC East, and assuming they beat the Jets this week (and they’re a six-point favorite to do so), they’ll be undefeated and atop the conference standings by themselves after Week 3 for the first time since 1998. That’s nearly 20 years ago(!). In his Dolphins debut last week, Jay Cutler was solid and threw a pretty touchdown pass to Kenny Stills, and the defense was just good enough to hold off Los Angeles even without standout Lawrence Timmons, who went AWOL, in attendance.

Either way, expect Miami to start 2-0 and to be in a good spot early in the 2017 season.

As usual, check out Pickwatch’s John Halpin’s full slate of week 3 picks. Now, here are a few of mine (If I’m right, congratulate me @jkatzo on Twitter).

1)Bet your life savings on this game*

Steelers at Bears

The Bears nearly pulled off the biggest upset of Week 1, getting ever so close to knocking off the Falcons in Chicago. Now, they get another chance to grab a bigtime win. But they won’t. Not as long as they’re using Mike Glennon as their starting quarterback. It’s hard to understand why coach John Fox won’t replace Glennon with first-round pick Mitchel Trubisky, but the Steelers likely feel great about Fox’s decision. As will you when you pick Pittsburgh to cover.

Straight up: Steelers

Against the Spread: Steelers -7.5

2017 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 2-0 S/U and 1-1 ATS

2)This game scares the hell out of me

Seahawks at Titans

If you saw the way Seattle struggled last week with San Francisco and with the way it’s struggled on offense in general this year, you have to wonder if the Seahawks are good enough to get to the playoffs. Well, not really. You’d wonder that if they played in the AFC West. But since they’re in the weak NFC West, there’s little doubt they’ll win the division. Now, Seattle is traveling to Tennessee, which had a tough Week 1 vs. Oakland but emerged last week with a beatdown of Jacksonville. I probably wouldn’t have picked Tennessee at any time in the past half-decade to beat the Seahawks, but today is the day I’m doing so.

Straight up: Titans

Against the Spread: Titans -2.5

2017 record for the “Scares the hell out of me” game: 2-0 S/U and 1-1 ATS

3) Fun game of the week

Browns at Colts

The Browns are a road favorite? Yes, the Browns are a road favorite. Say it again: The Browns are a freakin’ road favorite. As CBSSports.com points out, that’s the first time this has happened since Week 14 of the 2015 season. The Browns covered that day vs. the 49ers, and they’ll do it again vs. Indianapolis, which is just a hellaciously bad team right now without quarterback Andrew Luck in the lineup. This game, we should mention, won’t be fun to watch, no matter what the title of this paragraph says. It’ll likely be brutal. But it’ll be great for the Browns, who will get their first victory of the season and just their second in 18 games under coach Hue Jackson.

Straight up: Browns

Against the Spread: Browns -1

2017 record for “Fun game of the week”: 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS

 

 

S/U                            ATS

LAR over SF          LAR -2.5

BAL over JAC        BAL -3.5

DEN over BUF      DEN -3

CAR over NO        NO +6

PIT over CHI         PIT -7.5

ATL over DET       DET +3

CLE over IND        CLE -1

NE over HOU       HOU +13

MIA over NYJ       MIA -6

PHI over NYG      NYG +6

TEN over SEA      TEN -2.5 (CRAP)

GB over CIN        GB -9

KC over LAC         KC -3

OAK over WAS     OAK -3

DAL over ARI       DAL -3

 

*Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.

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