As you’ve probably noticed, Josh Katzowitz and I were brought on to the Pickwatch team to share our weekly picks with you this season.
Josh is a full seven games ahead of me with his straight up selections, but 3.5 games behind against the spread. As I will be dissatisfied with anything less than complete domination of my new teammate, it’s time to step up my game on the straight up picks. No prisoners!
On to the Week 8 picks, with selections being both straight up and against the spread unless noted otherwise. If you have any questions, catch me on Twitter (@jhalpin37).
(Home team in CAPS.)
Week 7 records: 11-4 SU, 9-4 ATS (two ATS games were pushes)
Overall: 58-48 SU, 53-49 ATS
RAVENS (-3) over Dolphins
The Dolphins have won three games in a row, including a road victory at Atlanta. The only game the Ravens have won in their last five has been against the EJ Manuel-led Raiders.
Also, the 4-2 Dolphins might not be hurt much at QB with Matt Moore replacing the injured Jay Cutler. I actually like Moore. Good, right? I’m taking the Ravens at home, anyway.
The pick: Ravens win and cover
VIKINGS (-9.5) over Browns
You know, the Browns’ defense hasn’t been terrible since Myles Garrett started playing three games ago. I’m not going to pick them to win Sunday morning’s game in London, but I think they’ll keep it close. Yes, even with DeShone Kizer starting.
The pick: Vikings win, Browns cover
BILLS (-2.5) over Raiders
Are the Raiders back in business after their dramatic win over the Chiefs? I’m not sure. I’m also not sure that Marshawn Lynch’s suspension is a big problem for them. But the surprising Bills look like a pretty good bet for a 1 p.m. kickoff at home against a West Coast opponent with a bad defense.
The pick: Bills win and cover
BENGALS (-10.5) over Colts
Squeaky wheel gets the grease? The bet here is that Joe Mixon will get 20 touches after complaining in the wake of last week’s loss to the Steelers, no matter how much his coaches admonished him for it. Oh, and the Colts are terrible.
The pick: Bengals win and cover
PATRIOTS (-7) over Chargers
Upset special? If I’m going to stay with my Chargers-to-the-playoffs prediction, they’ll have to win an unexpected game somewhere. I don’t think it’s here, though. They’ll keep it close, but winning is a tall order.
The pick: Pats win, Chargers cover
SAINTS (-9) over Bears
Who are these Saints with their surprisingly mediocre defense? After Carson Wentz and maybe the Bills, they’re the story of the year.
As for the Bears, keep in mind that they’ve been much worse on the road, with two blowout losses and a weird win at Baltimore. They can’t keep winning if they don’t let their quarterback try to make plays, and Mitchell Trubisky might not be ready to do that. The Saints should drop the hammer here.
The pick: Saints win and cover
Falcons (-4) over JETS
Is this a “But they’re the Falcons!” pick? Probably.
The pick: Falcons win and cover
EAGLES (-13) over 49ers
The Niners have lost by a field goal or less in all four of their road games, and face an Eagles’ squad coming off a short week plus season-ending injuries to LT Jason Peters (knee) and LB Jordan Hicks (Achilles). Kyle Shanahan’s crew should make a game of it, and come up just short again. This spread is too big.
The pick: Eagles win, 49ers cover
BUCS (-2) over Panthers
Tough call here, but I’m going to bet against the Panthers’ injuries (Kuechly, Kalil, Turner) and with a Bucs’ team whose only loss at home was a close one to the Patriots.
The pick: Bucs win and cover
SEAHAWKS (-5.5) over Texans
I’m a Texans’ skeptic. Their Week 5 loss to the Chiefs wasn’t nearly as close as the score indicated, and their last two wins were over the Browns and mostly Mariota-less Titans. The Seahawks are starting to roll, with three straight victories. They should take care of business at home.
The pick: Seahawks win and cover
REDSKINS (+2) over Cowboys
If CB Josh Norman returns for the Redskins – which is the hope – I’m not sure why we’re supposed to think the visiting Cowboys are the better team in this matchup. The Cowboy defense isn’t good, and they’ll help Kirk Cousins in his march toward the NFL’s biggest-ever contract.
The pick: Redskins win and cover
Steelers (-3) over LIONS
Hey, did you know that Football Outsiders has the Steelers ranked as the NFL’s best team through seven weeks? Their defense has allowed 4.4 yards per play – best in the NFL – and Le’Veon Bell is starting to hum, with 383 yards from scrimmage over his last two games.
The Lions, on the other hand, have been manhandled by the Panthers and Saints over their last two games. Sure, they could rebound with a big effort at home in a primetime game. I just don’t want to bet on it.
The pick: Steelers win and cover
CHIEFS (-7) over Broncos
Bettors appear to be on the Chiefs, with two thirds of wagers taking them to cover the spread per OddsShark. Time to fade the public? Probably. The Denver offense has been bad in its last two games, but that was against two talented defenses. Look for the Bronco defense to keep this game close.
The pick: Chiefs win, Broncos cover
SURVIVOR PICK
The Rams cruised over the Cardinals last week, for those of you still alive after the Week 6 survivor carnage.
The Eagles are this week’s biggest favorite. I’ve used them already, and you should take them now if you can. Otherwise, the mediocre Bengals are the selection against the putrid Colts.
Previous selections:
Week 1: Bills (win)
Week 2: Ravens (win)
Week 3: Panthers (loss)
Week 4: Seahawks (win)
Week 5: Eagles (win)
Week 6: Broncos (loss)
Week 7: Rams (win)
