I’m barely over .500 straight up, and you’re still reading? Thanks for the support, even if your plan is to take my picks and bet the opposite way.
On to the Week 7 picks, with selections being both straight up and against the spread unless noted otherwise. If you have any questions, catch me on Twitter (@jhalpin37).
(Home team in CAPS.)
Week 6 records: 5-9 SU, 5-9 ATS
Overall: 47-44 SU, 44-45 ATS
RAIDERS (+3) over Chiefs
Maybe the Raiders weren’t as good as they looked for most of last season, but they’re probably not as bad as they’ve appeared during their four-game losing streak. Also, the Chiefs rank 29th in total defense, allowing 378.2 yards per game – they’re good, but flawed. I think the Raiders bounce back here.
The pick: Raiders win and cover
BILLS (-3) over Buccaneers
Jameis Winston’s status is in doubt for this matchup, and if he plays this will be a tough call. However, we picked the Bucs last week because their defense was finally healthy, and they got lit up by a bunch of geriatric Cardinals. Let’s go with the Bills and their sturdy defense at home.
The pick: Bills win and cover
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BEARS (+3) over Panthers
All season long, we’ve talked about the Bears being an annoying team, especially at home. At Soldier Field, they’ve lost a nailbiter against the Falcons, beaten the Steelers, and fell short via a late field goal versus the Vikings. This one could go either way, but I’ll bet against the inconsistent Panthers.
The pick: Bears win and cover
BROWNS (+5.5) over Titans
They have to win one, right? RIGHT???
The pick: Browns win and cover
Saints (-5.5) over PACKERS
This pick is less about the Packers’ quarterback issues than it is about the improved Saints, whose defense is subpar but not the trainwreck we’ve come to expect. And for all their disappointing history away from the Superdome, the Saints crushed the Panthers on the road and shut out the Dolphins in London. Maybe all those defensive draft picks are finally making an impact.
It’s also about the quarterback, though. Brett Hundley might be a perfectly capable backup, but there’s a chasm between him and Aaron Rodgers. Or a gulf, or maybe even a canyon. It’s big, whatever it is. Let’s give the Pack a home-field cover, but no more than that.
The pick: Saints win, Packers cover
Jaguars (-3) over COLTS
The Jags’ loss last week was certainly disappointing, but they gave up fluky touchdowns on a kickoff return and a blocked punt. Their defense is still excellent, and the Colts are still bad. As long as Leonard Fournette’s recovery from an ankle injury keeps going well, they should be fine.
The pick: Jags win and cover
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RAMS (-3.5) over Cardinals
The Rams are this week’s survivor pick (see below). They’ll take care of business against a clearly inferior team. This point spread is waaaaaaaaaay too small.
The pick: Rams win and cover
DOLPHINS (-3) over Jets
I have no idea what to make of the Dolphins, who suffered a 20-6 loss (and they shouldn’t have gotten the six) against the Jets in Week 2. Their Week 6 victory at Atlanta was a shock, and probably more fluke than a true barometer of how good they are.
But the Jets aren’t too good either, and the game is in Miami. When things could go either way, I’ll lean toward the home team.
The pick: Dolphins win and cover
VIKINGS (-5.5) over Ravens
Speaking of confusing teams, the Ravens are all over the place. They could win this game or lose it by 30, and I wouldn’t be too surprised either way. The Vikings’ strong defense versus Joe Flacco’s awfulness makes Minnesota the logical option. Flacco has four touchdown passes against eight interceptions, and ranks 44th in passer rating, behind Jay Cutler and Brian Hoyer.
The pick: Vikings win and cover
49ERS (+6) over Cowboys
The Niners might be 0-6, but they’ve been frisky, losing their last five games by a combined 13 points. Rookie QB C.J. Beathard gets the start against a Cowboys’ team that will have Ezekiel Elliott, thanks to a suspension that has been delayed (again).
Have you noticed that Zeke has been just pretty good running the ball so far, instead of great like last season? Maybe the departures of Doug Free and Ronald Leary made more of a difference than we thought, as the Cowboys’ O-line was ranked 14th by Pro Football Focus through five weeks. I like the Niners to keep it close, and think they’ve got a good chance to pull this one out.
The pick: 49ers win and cover
CHARGERS (-1.5) over Broncos
Look out for the Chargers, who have two consecutive road wins, and would probably be living up to preseason expectations if their since-departed rookie kicker had made a late attempt versus either the Broncos or Dolphins. The Broncos will be without Emmanuel Sanders, which will hurt an already-struggling Trevor Siemian. The Bolts are going to make a strong playoff push, folks.
The pick: Chargers win and cover
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Seahawks (-5.5) over GIANTS
I saw your offense Sunday night, Giants. And I won’t believe one bit of it until I see it again.
The pick: Seahawks win and cover
STEELERS (-5.5) over Bengals
The Bengals have improved since two bad losses to start the season, but their status as the NFL’s second-ranked defense is skewed by a schedule that has included the Ravens, Texans, Browns and Bills. The Steelers’ third-ranked defense has faced a similarly bad schedule, but they get to put the ball in the hands of Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. That’s enough for me in a home game.
The pick: Steelers win, Bengals cover
Falcons (+3.5) over PATRIOTS
This Super Bowl rematch between two elite offensive teams should be fun to watch. The revenge narrative is interesting, but the Pats’ terrible defense is the reason to pick against them. Saying, “But they’re the Patriots, it’ll be fine” isn’t enough for a team that just gave up more than 400 yards to the Jets.
The pick: Falcons win and cover
EAGLES (4.5) over Redskins
If I had to pick an NFC Super Bowl representative right now, it would be the Eagles. But the Redskins aren’t too far behind them. Josh Norman’s probable absence hurts the ‘Skins enough to swing the pendulum for me in a game that should be a good one.
The pick: Eagles win and cover
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week didn’t go well for anyone who picked the chalky Broncos, Falcons, or Ravens. Is anyone still alive in their pools?
If so, there isn’t a spread higher than six points on this week’s slate, so chalk doesn’t really exist. Let’s go with the *Rams *in England over the Cardinals, whose 3-3 record is a mirage. Bruce Arians’ team ranks 27th in DVOA per Football Outsiders, and two of their three wins have come against the Colts and 49ers.
Previous selections:
Week 1: Bills (win)
Week 2: Ravens (win)
Week 3: Panthers (loss)
Week 4: Seahawks (win)
Week 5: Eagles (win)
Week 6: Broncos (loss)
