Considering my background as a fantasy sports analyst, it’s nice to see fellow fantasy guys Jamey Eisenberg (CBS Sports) and Jeff Ratcliffe (Pro Football Focus) tied atop the Pickwatch standings after 11 weeks. If I go 16-0 for the next three weeks, I might join them. Might.
On to the Week 12 picks, with selections being both straight up and against the spread unless noted otherwise. If you have any questions, catch me on Twitter (@jhalpin37).
(Home team in CAPS.)
Week 11 records: 8-6 SU, 7-6 ATS (Lions-Bears was a push)
Overall: 95-65 SU, 76-77 ATS
LIONS (+3) over Vikings
Good matchup for the Thanksgiving leadoff spot, huh? The Vikes are the better team, but not by a huge margin. And as surprisingly good as Case Keenum has been, it’s not like he’s Tom Brady. This should be a close one, with the Lions’ decent defense keeping it that way. Let’s take the home Staffords.
The pick: Lions win and cover
Chargers (PK) over COWBOYS
Not sure which way to go here. I’ve been a Chargers’ backer all season long, and still see a path for them to make the playoffs despite a 4-6 record. However, if the Cowboys get LT Tyron Smith back – which appears likely – it’ll be a huge boost for a team that has struggled to score since Ezekiel Elliott got suspended.
Ah, screw it. I hate the Cowboys. Especially on Thanksgiving.
The pick: Chargers win and cover
REDSKINS (-7.5) over Giants
The Giants’ Week 11 victory over the Chiefs was more likely a wind-aided aberration than a sign that they’ve improved – remember that they allowed 82 points to the Rams and 49ers in their previous two games. They’re probably still a bad football team, and the ‘Skins are kinda sorta OK. Odds are good that I’ll be in a tryptophan/pecan pie coma by halftime.
The pick: Redskins win and cover
FALCONS (-10) over Bucs
As Browns LT Joe Thomas noted on Twitter, I don’t like that the Falcons arrived home from their Week 11 game at 8:30 a.m. on Tuesday. They’re certainly better than the Bucs and may be picking up steam overall, but the weird schedule could result in a sluggish performance. Let’s split the difference.
The pick: Falcons win, Bucs cover
Panthers (-5) over JETS
The Panthers expect TE Greg Olsen to return, which is great news. But they’ll be without speedy rookie WR Curtis Samuel, who broke his ankle in the Week 10 rout of the Dolphins. Believe it or not, Samuel’s absence is a big deal. The Panthers traded Kelvin Benjamin as part of a plan to get more speed on the field, and Samuel’s injury foils the plan, at least for now. Unless I’m underestimating the Panthers’ offense, this should be a close, low-scoring affair.
The pick: Panthers win, Jets cover
Titans (-3.5) over COLTS
The Titans are so unimpressive. Since Week 3, their wins have been uninspiring, and their losses have been bad. They did beat the Colts by two touchdowns in Week 6, though. This probably won’t be a blowout, and a Colts’ win wouldn’t shock me at all.
The pick: Titans win and cover
BENGALS (-8) over Browns
Where will the Browns get their win? Probably at home versus the Rodgers-less Packers in Week 14. It could be here, but I doubt it.
The pick: Bengals win and cover
EAGLES (-14) over Bears
Lots of big spreads this week. I hate giving two touchdowns in any NFL game, but are we going to bet against the Eagles, Patriots AND Steelers? Since Mitchell Trubisky took over at QB, the Bears are 2-4 with losses by three, eight, seven and three points. Their defense is solid, and they’re good enough to keep things respectable. Take the points, right? Well …
The Eagles have been wrecking opponents. They’re averaging 36 points over their last six games, with an average victory margin of 20. Subjectively, they are rolling. They’re the smart play, even wjth the big number.
The pick: Eagles win and cover
CHIEFS (-10) over Bills
As of Wednesday morning, the Bills hadn’t named their starting quarterback. If it’s Tyrod Taylor, I’ll take their Chiefs here. If it’s Nathan Peterman, I’ll triple-take the Chiefs.
The pick: Chiefs win and cover
PATRIOTS (-17) over Dolphins
Now you want me to give SEVENTEEN points? This line has risen by 1.5 since it opened, and 63 percent of the betting public is on the Pats (according to OddsShark). I’ll take the points here, mainly because I figure that ONE of the big underdogs will keep things close.
The pick: Patriots win, Dolphins cover
Seahawks (-7) over 49ERS
The Seahawks are a weakened team, with Richard Sherman done for the season, Kam Chancellor probably out again and guys off the street being brought in to play running back. However, the 49ers appear ready to start C.J. Beathard again, and the only team they’ve been respectable against with him under center is the Giants.
The pick: Seahawks win and cover
RAMS (-2.5) over Saints
Best game of the week, featuring two of the top half-dozen teams in the NFL. Could go either way. My hunch is the Rams at home. #analysis
The pick: Rams win and cover
RAIDERS (-5) over Broncos
Even though the Raiders have a horrendous defense, they’re still the bet against Paxton Lynch in his first start of the season. The Broncos have spent 11 weeks avoiding Lynch, even replacing Trevor Siemian with Brock Freaking Osweiler. Eight weeks ago, this looked like a really good game. Now it’s terrible.
The pick: Raiders win and cover
CARDINALS (+5) over Jaguars
I’m a big fan of the Jags. Look at their remaining schedule, and 12 or 13 wins appear to be in play. But as much as I like them, don’t you think there will be some bumps in the road? An away game versus a solid Cardinals’ defense and an underrated Blaine Gabbert seems like a spot for them to stumble.
If the Jags win this one, the AFC’s top seed will not be a far-fetched possibility. Holy cow.
The pick: Cardinals win and cover
STEELERS (-14) over Packers
Blowout alert: The Steelers might be the best team in the AFC, while the Packers have averaged 14.25 points in four games without Aaron Rodgers. Tell me why this one should be close. TELL ME!
The pick: Steelers win and cover
RAVENS (-7) over Texans
The Ravens’ defense has posted three shutouts while ranking third in points allowed and sixth in yards allowed. And they’re getting a home game against Tom Savage. LOLOLOL!
The pick: Ravens win and cover
SURVIVOR PICK
The Chiefs burned us last week, and they were the only team to lose among the four we mentioned. That’ll teach me to pick a road team.
Lots of big favorites in Week 12, and we haven’t used the Patriots or Steelers in this space. We’ll take the Pats, but either one seems like a lock. If you need to dig a little deeper, the Raiders and Redskins look like strong bets.
Previous selections:
Week 1: Bills (win)
Week 2: Ravens (win)
Week 3: Panthers (loss)
Week 4: Seahawks (win)
Week 5: Eagles (win)
Week 6: Broncos (loss)
Week 7: Rams (win)
Week 8: Bengals (win)
Week 9: Texans (loss)
Week 10: Lions (win)
Week 11: Chiefs (loss)
